2024 Paris Olympics Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (8/6)

Can Greece's women's water polo team hang with Australia? Who will win the men's 1,500-meter final? And should the USA men's basketball team be favored by so many points over Brazil?

Here are the three best bets for August 6 at the Paris Olympics.

Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Women's Water Polo: Australia -2.5 (-125) vs. Greece

Australia is an interesting team right now. They won all four Group Stage games, joining Spain as the only unbeaten teams entering the quarterfinals. However, Australia was far from dominant on their road to 4-0. They won two games in penalties and their other two wins were by a combined five goals. 

While some may think there is value in taking Greece in this game, the Greeks simply aren't good enough to keep this close, even if the Australians are bound to bow out before the finals. The Greeks went just 1-3 in Group Stage, and they were outscored by eight goals. Australia does enough to win this one by at least three goals, though this game will be closer than records suggest.

Men's 1,500 Meter: Josh Kerr (+110)

We have seen some unbelievable upsets in the men's 1500-meter at the Olympics. In 2016, American Matt Centrowitz outkicked the field to win the event in 3:50.00. It was a very slow race, especially when you consider he ran a 3:39.61 in the semifinals that year. This backstory is important because we often see the final of this race run rather slowly. Racers turn it into a tactical race rather than just going out and trying to outrun their competition as they might when trying to qualify in the semifinals. When that happens, you can get a surprise winner.

But this race won't look anything like 2016. Josh Kerr and Jakob Ingebrigtsen are going to push the pace and try to outduel each other. It truly is up in the air as to which runner wins. But because Kerr has slightly more favorable odds for bettors, we're going to take him. Either way, these two are going to separate from the pack. It's just a matter of who gets over the line first. 

Men's Basketball: Brazil +27 (-112) vs. USA

Were the American men playing their best basketball in the Group Stage? Probably not. They won two of their games by more than 20 points, but they still didn't demolish the teams they were facing in the way they could have had they played to the best of their ability. Their next game is an elimination game, so perhaps they'll play harder, but 27 points is very high.

The Americans haven't beaten anyone in this tournament by 27 points. Brazil are easily one of the two best teams they've faced thus far. Even if the Americans absolutely dominate this game, Brazil will manage to keep it close enough to cover this spread. And if the Americans get out to a 30-point lead, look for them to start thinking about the next game as Brazil notches a back door cover.

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Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.