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Top 3 PGA Championship Bets: Picks & Predictions

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It’s PGA Championship week! About one week has passed since Scottie and Meredith Scheffler had their first child (roughly), and that means that the World Number One is back to continue his march to being the most dominant golfer of this generation, albeit probably with a lot less sleep.

Last year, Brooks Koepka overpowered this field on a Sunday to raise the Wanamaker Trophy at Oak Hill, and he returns to this field having won his most recent tournament. Can he make his mark one more time?

It’s been ten years since newly-filed-for-divorce Rory McIlroy raised the trophy at Valhalla Golf Club in what was his last won major, and since then, not only has the course gotten longer, but the golf field has gotten every stronger. Valhalla Golf Club will play very long, at over 7,600 yards, but inclement weather could soften this course right up and bring in some lower scores this weekend.

When we look at Valhalla, it brings a very prototypical major golf venue into play. Zeon Zoysiagrass fairways will have the ball rolling so that shorter hitters can make their way easier, and firm and fast Bentgrass greens should do their part to keep these golfers honest and on their toes.

It’s going to be very tough to bet against the undisputed best player in the world right now in Scheffler, but with the man on a severe lack of sleep, a week off, and a major championship field, let’s dive into my top 2024 PGA Championship bets to see if anyone can unseat him at the top.

2024 PGA Championship Bets

Here are my top three 2024 PGA Championship bets ahead of this week’s major tournament.

Ludvig Aberg

Heading into the 2024 Masters Tournament, everyone knew that Aberg was coming up on the scene and had plenty of outs to become a world-class golfer. I’m not sure that anyone predicted Aberg’s Masters though. In his first-ever major event, Aberg played nearly flawless golf until Sunday afternoon at the beginning of Amen Corner and finished runner-up to Scheffler, cementing his name in all further major talks.

Aberg’s betting number fell like a stone after that awesome showing, getting as low at 12/1 at one point. However, he pulled out of last week’s Wells Fargo Championship the day before the tournament with what was later revealed as a knee issue, though he has said in Valhalla press conferences that his team suggested to pull out as a means of making sure he’s as good to go as possible for the second major of the season.

Reading between the lines, that’s a less-than-enthusiastic comment to make, but I do think that Aberg is as talented as any golfer in this field and has a TON of win equity on this course. He makes a ton of sense from a statistical context, ranking at the top of the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, Ballstriking, and Off the Tee, while ranking best in this field in Bentgrass putting over his last 24 rounds. He’s as complete a golfer as it gets that’s not in that top tier of guys, and I think he has a fantastic shot at taking down his first major title.

2024 PGA Championship Bets: Ludvig Aberg Outright winner (+2000); Top 10 (+220)

Jon Rahm

It’s gone under the radar for a while now, but who remembers when, before Rahm turned his back on the PGA Tour and signed a deal with rival LIV Golf, that he was incredible at golf? If you asked ten people who the best player in the world was in November of last year, five would have said Scottie, but the other five would have said Rahm, and there’s plenty of good reason for it.

Rahm won three of his first five events of the 2023 season, including a couple Signature Events, and then topped it all off with a massive win at the Masters Tournament and a runner-up at The Open Championship. In my mind, he had a terrific case for PGA Tour Player of the Year, and then the hammer dropped with him going to LIV in December.

Since that move, he’s placed inside the top ten of every LIV event he’s played this year, and while he hasn’t looked elite yet, and his Masters title defense looked a bit lackluster, he’s on a short list of player who I view as a near-perfect course fits at Valhalla. Rahm is super long off the tee, a tremendous long-iron player, and a solid Bentgrass putter. He has also crushed on Nicklaus courses during his career, with wins at Muirfield Village, Olympia Fields, and Torrey Pines.

This is a green light course for Rahm, and I expect the former World Number One to make a serious charge up the board.

2024 PGA Championship Bets: Jon Rahm Outright Winner (+1600); Top 10 (+170)

Collin Morikawa

Earth is finally beginning to heal. That is to say, Morikawa is finally becoming bettable once again. A handful of months after parting ways with his longtime coach Rick Sessinghaus to work with Mark Blackburn, Morikawa dumped Blackburn after a dismal PLAYERS Championship and has started working with Sessinghaus again, and the change has been noticeable.

Morikawa’s approach numbers are still a work in progress, but the results are there. He has three top 20 finishes in his last four events, had a quietly stellar Masters Tournament, and has to be brimming with confidence coming into a tournament he has won before. A former PGA Champion at TPC Harding Park in 2020, Morikawa fits well on a Valhalla course that will require solid Off the Tee and long-iron approach numbers, both of which Collin is performing well in.

Something people tend to overlook with Morikawa is that he also has three wins on Nicklaus-designed courses over his career. He’s gained with the putter in each of his last three starts, and this week is a perfect time for him to jump back into the spotlight.

2024 PGA Championship Bets: Collin Morikawa Outright Winner (+3000); Top 20 (+120)

2024 PGA Championship Picks & Golfer Profiles

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