2024 Players Championship: Odds, Picks & Predictions
As I suspected, Scottie Scheffler was just too strong at Bay Hill last week. This, unfortunately, paid much less than Will Zalatoris would have, although “Willy Z” did cash us out at +280 for his top-10 performance. We also had narrow misses on Justin Thomas and Austin Eckroat’s placement bets. The flavors are there. Alas, we trudge forward to The Players Championship.
The Players is colloquially referred to as “the fifth Major.” This is funny because it occurs before all four Majors on the calendar. I would argue the event is no less exciting than any Major, thanks to one of the best championship venues in all of golf. It was Scheffler who prevailed at TPC Sawgrass by five strokes last year in an almost tedious display of dominance. He is naturally carrying extremely short odds into the week, but there has never been a repeat winner in the 50-year history of The Players. Variance is not just expected. It is guaranteed.
2024 Players Championship: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Although not as difficult on the card as Bay Hill, Sawgrass is a marvel in golf course architecture. Master designer Pete Dye etched this Wrigley Field of a stadium course into the murky swamps of St. Johns County, Fla. Where it lacks “Tiger-proof” length, it more than exceeds expectations in trickery and pressure-packed shot-making demands. Sawgrass is a par-72 at only 7,200 yards and change, meant to challenge every shot in a golfer’s arsenal. The full bag and one’s mettle are promptly pressurized from the first tee onward.
Key metrics to consider are similar to that of most events. Ball striking from tee to green is essential here, but accuracy and shotmaking outweigh distance. The green complexes are minuscule by Tour standards and as well-guarded as any in the world by penalty areas and bunkers. This puts the most stress on the short game and scrambling ability. Avoiding big numbers is just as important as exploiting the scoring holes, of which there are a few. Thanks to the tight odds put on our defending champion, the rest of the card has a cornucopia of options with relatively soft lines. With an easy pitching wedge into a peninsula (not an island) green, let’s tee off.
Justin Thomas
Even though he faded down the stretch at Bay Hill last week, I believe the real Thomas is back. Few understand just how talented “JT” is and how quickly he can regain his status in the top tier of the PGA Tour with continued success. Thomas is in rarified air with a wedge in his hand, both on approach and around the green. He appeared at third in my stat model, making this a very confident bet at his current line.
Picks: Outright +2200 [1u]; Top-5 +500 [1u]
Jordan Spieth
Whenever a course puts such staggering demands on the players’ short game, one cannot overlook Jordan Spieth. A literal magician at getting out of predicaments, Spieth is also on a good roll at converting birdie opportunities. One can only hope his form off the tee can hold up. He is a very smart player, which is a plus on a Pete Dye course.
Picks: Outright +3500 [1u]; Top-10 +330
Shane Lowry
Say what you want about Shane Lowry’s Sunday struggles the past two weeks. He has been there for us on the Florida Swing. This Sunday is Saint Patrick’s Day, and Lowry is the pride of Clara, County Offaly, and will not let down his fans from the Emerald Isle. The Irishman is scorching hot and will hopefully have us decked out in more green this time around. Céid Milhe Fáilte!
Picks: Outright +4000 [1u]; Top-5 +800 [1u]; Top-10 +360 [1u]
Byeong Hun An
Speaking of hot golfers. Byeong Hun An is the darling of bad golf bettors on Twitter. He has not fulfilled us with a win yet but has been knocking on the door all season. An is a master ball striker and has recently found some semblance of a short game. I’ll take a shot at him; he absolutely has the firepower.
Picks: Outright +6500 [0.25u]; Top-20 +275 [0.75u]
Nick Taylor
The Canadian has been Mr. Consistent this season and even threw in a win at the WM Phoenix Open in February. His 12th-place finish at Bay Hill last week was rock solid, thanks to ruthless accuracy on approach and signature clutch putting. I won’t bet any deeper this week, but Taylor is just so badly mispriced that it’s impossible to ignore.
Picks: Outright +11000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +360 [0.5u]
Favorite One-and-Done Pick: Viktor Hovland (+1800)
It’s been a sluggish start to the 2024 season for Viktor Hovland. He’s the defending FedExCup champion and went on an absolute heater to end the 2023 season, however, bogeys and other missed opportunities have kept the Norwegian from contending atop the leaderboard on Sundays through four events.
Two T25 finishes are solid for the average player but Hovland is elite, so his price at FanDuel Sportsbook set to +1800 is too tempting to pass on. Ranked 1oth for driving efficiency, 21st going for green, 32nd for total putting, and sixth for three-putt avoidance, Hovland’s driver and flat stick are his best assets. He also scores low on par 3s and par 5s, which are plentiful at TPC Sawgrass, and he logged a T3 finish at -10-under-par during this event in 2023.
Let’s stake a unit on Hovland to get a statement win and his first of the year at The PLAYERS Championship this weekend at 18/1 odds.
Other Players To Consider
Other players considered for the one-and-done pick who didn’t make the cut include Sahith Theegala (+6500), Adam Hadwin (+7000), and Will Zalatoris (+2500) but Hovland stands out as the best bet amongst all of these prospects.
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: