2024 Preakness Stakes Longshot Bets: Sleeper Picks & Predictions

by Daniel Dobish |
May 16, 2024

It’s mid-May and time for the 149th running of the Preakness Stakes on Saturday afternoon. We’ll have just two more races at the fabled track before a temporary shift to Laurel Park in 2026. The Maryland General Assembly approved a bill that consolidates Maryland thoroughbred racing at Pimlico, and therefore, the Pimlico site will receive a giant facelift and reconstruction. The Preakness will be back in 2027, so this is the penultimate race on the current setup before construction begins. Our goal today is to find and break down some Preakness Stakes longshot bets.

Mystik Dan (5-2) picked up the win at the 150th Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. The three-year-old colt, ridden by Brian J. Hernandez Jr., is the favorite after Muth was scratched for Saturday’s second jewel of the American Triple Crown. The champ is in the building, as is Catching Freedom (6-1), the three-year-old bay colt that ended up fourth at the Kentucky Derby. Just Steel (15-1), who ended up a dismal 17th at Churchill Downs, is also in the truncated field. Those are the only horses who will have run the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness.

Last season we had just seven entrants in the 148th Preakness Stakes, which eventually was won by National Treasure. Some feel it’s easier to bet on the Preakness than it is to bet on the Kentucky Derby due to a smaller field. Discovering a longshot at the Preakness is not an easy feat, as there aren’t a ton of horses to choose from. We can still see surprises, however.

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2024 Preakness Stakes Best Longshot Bets

(Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

Seize the Grey (15/1)

Seize the Grey, the D. Wayne Lukas-trained three-year-old colt will be ridden by jockey Jaime A. Torres. Lukas won with Oxbow, with Gary Stevens as the jockey, riding for owner Calumet Farm in 2013. Torres has never won at the Preakness Stakes.

Seize the Grey did not race at the Kentucky Derby, but is no stranger to Churchill Downs, winning the Pat Day Mile presented by SAP in a Grade 2 stakes race on May 4. That was a nice bounce back from a disappointing seventh-place run at the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in early April.

This horse has picked up victories in two of the past four starts, including an allowance optional claiming race at Oaklawn Park in February 2024 with Nik Juarez on the back. Seize the Grey also won a Maiden Special Weight race at Saratoga in late July 2023. In nine career starts, Seize the Grey has three wins and three finishes of third place, and is worth a roll of the dice among exotics.

Just Steel (15/1)

The other Lukas-trained horse, Just Steel, tumbled to 17th at the Derby. Joel Rosario hops aboard the steed, looking for his first Preakness Stakes victory. This three-year-old colt has some championship fiber, as he was sired by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify.

Just Steel hasn’t been able to tap into that championship DNA yet, posting three second-place showings, but no firsts, in five starts in 2024. Some bettors might find Just Steel a safer play to place or show. This horse ended up second at the Arkansas Derby in late March, second at the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park in early February, second at the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park on New Year’s Day, etc.

The last win by Just Steel came at the Ed Brown Stakes at Churchill Downs on November 25. Prior that, a win at Saratoga in a Maiden Special Weight race. Still, it’s hard to ignore those bloodlines.

Uncle Heavy (20/1)

Uncle Heavy will be ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., who was aboard Domestic Product, a horse that fizzled to 13th at the Kentucky Derby. Still, Uncle Heavy is a different horse and a winner. The Robert E. Reid Jr.-trained three-year-old colt stumbled to a fifth-place showing at the Wood Memorial last time out on April 6. However, before that, Uncle Heavy posted a win at the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct on February 3, a race with an E Speed Figure of 95. And at Parx Racing, Uncle Heavy posted a victory in the Wait For It Stakes.

The one thing Uncle Heavy might have going for it is the weather forecast. There is a 50% or greater chance of showers, light rain or moderate precipitation from 1 a.m. ET to 2 p.m. ET. The rain is expected to taper off by 6 p.m. ET, with a 30% chance of precipitation. Still, the track will be a muddied mess, which is just the way Uncle Heavy likes it. His best two races have come on a wet surface, including the solid victory at the Withers Stakes against El Grande O. Uncle Heavy has won both starts with a track listed as wet, while winning just once in three tries on a dry run. Keep that in mind for your exotics.

Mugatu (20/1)

Last but not least we get Mugatu, making his American Triple Crown debut after being bumped from the Kentucky Derby two weeks ago. Joe Bravo will be aboard the $14K horse. This horse has 12 starts under his belt…err, saddle…and just one victory. That came in a maiden race at Gulfstream Park in South Florida. But, like Uncle Heavy above, the expected sloppy conditions at Pimlico could give a longshot horse like Mugatu a little more level of a playing field.

Mugatu isn’t as attractive as Uncle Heavy among the exotics, and the longest longshot at the Preakness Stakes won at 23-1 in 1975 when Master Derby went to the winner’s circle. This is the horse to close with the longest odds likely. If you want to be a contrarian, this horse is for you.

2024 Preakness Stakes Horse Previews, Picks & Predictions

Check out our previews for every horse competing in the 2024 Preakness Stakes and our expert analysis on the best bets for this year's Run for the Black-eyed Susans.

Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.

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