2024 Preakness Stakes: Odds, Trends & Best Bets

by Luke Monaldo |
May 18, 2024

The third Saturday in May is just days away and with it the 149th Preakness Stakes. The Run for the Black-eyed Susans will start at approximately 7:00 pm ET on Saturday, May 20 at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland. Here’s a look at our 2024 Preakness Stakes best bets along with the odds for the horses and trends to know.

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2024 Preakness Stakes Best Bets & Trends

**Winning Trends by Post Position Since 1909 (#* denotes wins since 2000)**

1 – Mugatu (20-1) – (Post 1 winners – 13, Most Recent – National Treasure, 2023) 3*

2 – Uncle Heavy (20-1) – (Post 2 winners – 12, Most Recent – Cloud Computing, 2017) 1*

3 – Catching Freedom (6-1) – (Post 3 winners – 12, Most Recent – California Chrome, 2014) 1*

~~4 – Muth (8-5) – (Post 4 winners – 14, Most Recent – Swiss Skydiver, 2020) 3*~~

5 – Mystik Dan (5-2) – (Post 5 winners – 13, Most Recent – Early Voting, 2022) 3*

6 – Seize the Grey (15-1) – (Post 6 winners – 16, Most Recent – Oxbow, 2013) 3*

7 – Just Steel (15-1) – (Post 8 winners – 14, Most Recent – Justify, 2018) 3*

8 – Tuscan Gold (8-1) – (Post 8 winners – 10, Most Recent – Bernardini, 2006) 2*

9 – Imagination (6-1) – (Post 9 winner – 4, Most Recent – I’ll Have Another, 2012) 2*

10 thru 13 – N/A — (These 4 posts have only produced eight winners combined anyway)

Trend-Based Bad Bets

There are no bad horses, only bad bets, so we will use the phrase “Trend-Based Bad Bets” for the following entrants. These are horses that statistically and historically face factors that are poor bets to win the Preakness. Anything is possible in horse racing, but I am a process-driven bettor and these bets are the antithesis of process-driven.

Not by a Longshot?

Only four of the 148 Preakness Stakes winners all-time have opened with longer odds than 15-1. This likely rules out Mugatu and Uncle Heavy. In fact, the longest opening odds for a Preakness winner was 23-1 (Master Derby, 1975). That being said, since 2009 more longshots (6) have won the Preakness than favorites (5) so this trend has bucked in recent years. Additionally, keep in mind that Uncle Heavy is the only horse in this field that is a proven mudder with his most recent W coming in the Aqueduct slop in the Withers Stakes. If anyone is gonna bring you home the big bucks on their own this Saturday, it’s gonna be the mudder rocket under renowned jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. The significance of the track surface cannot be understated here and the seas have begun to part for Uncle Heavy as the skies have opened.

Positive Preakness Trends

My Old Kentucky Home

104 of the 148 Preakness winners have been Kentucky-bred, including the last eight. Uncle Heavy (PA) is the only horse this year that does not fit this criterion but as I said earlier Uncle Heavy’s a special case. However, of the 44 winners not bred in the Blue Grass State, eight were homegrown winners, bred in Maryland (which sadly has zero entrants this year), although half of them won in the late 19th century. The last Pennsylvania-bred winner was Smarty Jones in 2004 (with his own underdog story) and the last winner bred outside of Kentucky was California Chrome in 2014. Can you guess where he was bred?

Making the Grade

Since 1997, 24 of the 27 Preakness winners had a graded stakes victory and 17 of 27 had won a Grade 1 race prior to the Preakness. In fact, each of the last 27 winners had, at worst, come in second in a graded stakes race. In this field, Uncle Heavy (G3), Catching Freedom (G2), Mystik Dan (G1), Seize the Gray (G2), Just Steel (LS), and Imagination (G2) have all won graded stakes races. This trend does not bode well for Mugatu and Tuscan Gold, although the latter has only raced thrice and we all know triples is best.

Need for Speed

In recent years, the Preakness has favored pacesetters and stalkers, as 13 of the last 15 winners have been within 4 lengths of the leader after the opening 1/2 mile. The only two horses to win after being in the back half of the field at the 1/2 mile mark are Rombauer in 2021 and Exaggerator in 2014 and the latter rode the rail in the firmest part of the sloppy track that day in a perfect storm. Horses make great runs in the final stretch to win the Preakness all the time, it’s just with an increasing rarity that they do so from way back. The relatively short 1 3/16 mile race is simply not enough track for most deep closers. Four of the last 15 winners have been wire-to-wire winners and with just four possible pacesetters with Muth’s defection (Imagination, Mystik Dan, Tuscan Gold, Just Steel) this trend definitely favors these four. It especially favors Imagination and his short odds if he can overcome the “wide” draw and get out ahead of the field early.

Bob’s Spare

Bob Baffert has the most Preakness wins all-time at eight. Granted, Baffert has won eight of the last 27 races while Walden’s final victory came in 1888 which is a testament to just how hard it is to wear the Black-eyed Susans that many times. Say what you want about Baffert’s questionable training practices, the man racks up Ws with three winners in the last decade including two horses (American Pharoah, Justify) on their way to Triple Crowns. His best horse this weekend, Muth, was scratched due to a fever. No one stands to benefit more from Muth’s scratch than his stablemate, Imagination.

Originally meant to provide pace to the race for Muth, Imagination now stands out as a real threat for a wire-to-wire victory if he gets the right trip from the 9-hole. If he can get out in front of the pack and Mystik Dan has a less-than-ideal trip this race lacks any serious speed and can be ripe for the taking. Trainer Bob Baffert has more Preakness victories (nine) than anyone in history and with all of his attention now focused on this son of championship sire Into Mischief, the sky is the limit on Saturday even if you won’t be able to see said sky through all of the cloud cover on the projected sloppy track.

Baltimore isn’t seeing the kind of rain it saw in 2018 leafing up to 2018’s Justify victory in the fog and slop, but it will be wet for sure. Imagination has never run a race in less than “fast” conditions but he cut his teeth in the deep sands of Santa Anita Park and should have a mudder’s strength. That might be enough in this field.

Keeping It 100…or Better

Since 1962, every Preakness Winner has posted an Equibase Speed Figure greater than 100. Of the nine horses in this year’s field, only ~~Muth (102)~~ and Mystik Dan (101) have ever hit this number. These two came in 1 and 2 at the Arkansas Derby and ~~Muth~~ would have likely won the Derby had he not had past human mistakes held against him. Sadly, he now misses a shot at the Preakness, again for reasons beyond his control.

Pedigrees

Mugatu (Blofeld – Union Way, by Union Rags) – A

Uncle Heavy (Social Inclusion – Expect Wonderful, by Tiz Wonderful) – BTS

Catching Freedom (Constitution – Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) – A

Muth (Good Magic – Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) – RAN

Mystik Dan (Goldencents – Ma’am by Colonel John) – A

Seize the Grey (Arrogate- Smart Shopping, by Smart Strike) – RAN

Just Steel (Justify – Irish Lights, by Fastnet Rock) – RAN

Tuscan Gold (Madaglia d’oro, Valadorna by Curlin) – RAN

Imagination (Into Mischief – Magical Feeling, by Empire Maker) – BTS

*A denotes Alydar in their 5x pedigree
**RAN denotes Raise a Native in their 5x pedigree
***BTS denotes Raise A Native is back there somewhere

Three of the last four Preakness winners (Swiss Skydiver ’20, Rombauer ’21, National Treasure ’23) had the late, great Alydar (my favorite horse of all time) in their bloodline. The legendary stallion, Raise a Native, sired Alydar and dating back to 2009, the last 15 Preakness winners are descendants of Raise of Native, with all but last year’s winner, Early Voting, having him as close as within their 5x pedigree.

Raise a Native was a foundational sire that was the direct ancestor of 23 Kentucky Derby champions and the son of Native Dancer who was damsire to Northern Dancer, arguably the most influential stallion of the 20th century. Out of this year’s field, three horses (Mugatu, Catching Freedom, Mystik Dan) are descendants of Alydar, instantly giving them Raise a Native in their 5x. ~~Muth~~, Seize the Grey, Just Steel, and Tuscan Gold are not descended from Alydar but do possess Raise a Native in their 5x pedigrees.

Uncle Heavy and Imagination are the only two horses in this limited field that do not have Raise a Native in their 5×5, all but eliminating them from winning based on recent trends. However, they do have names in the past that denote Raise a Native is farther back in their ancestry just outside their 5x pedigrees, showing just how influential he continues to be despite passing away in 1988. Uncle Heavy may have come out of a $1700 mare but his uncles on his sire’s side were American Pharoah and Classic Empire, both of which fared well at Pimlico. Just sayin’.

2024 Preakness Stakes Best Bets

2024 Preakness Stakes Best Boxed Superfecta: Mystik Dan – Imagination – Catching Freedom – Tuscan Gold (5-9-3-8)
2024 Preakness Stakes Mudder Boxed Trifecta (If track rated “SLOPPY”): Uncle Heavy – Mystik Dan – Just Steel (2-5-7)

Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports and Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner. For more from Luke, check out his archive.

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