2024 Quaker State 400: NASCAR at Atlanta Odds, Picks & Predictions
The NFL season kicked off this week. Watching Kansas City Chiefs rookie receiver Xavier Worthy go off for two touchdowns in his debut reassured me that talent will almost always rise to the top in football. Stock car racing, meanwhile? Cash and sponsorship backing rule everything.
With how the current TV revenue split is done (65% to the tracks, 25% to the teams and 10% to NASCAR), it forces many organizations to prioritize drivers with personal sponsorship backing, even if they’re not the most talented option available.
Case-in-point: Brandon Jones will return to Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) in the Xfinity Series full-time in 2025 after two seasons with rival top team JR Motorsports (JRM). After no wins and just four T5s in his 56 races at JRM, Jones is now 26 and no longer considered a Cup Series prospect. However, because of the deep pockets of the Menards, he’ll have one of the best seats in the second-tier series yet again.
Meanwhile, Ryan Truex - the younger brother of Martin Truex Jr. - has two wins in eight Xfinity Series races for the JGR this season. In just 14 total races since 2023, he has more T5s than Jones in 42 fewer races. Yet, because of the lack of personal sponsors, the New Jersey native doesn’t have a ride for next season.
This is just one example of the unequal playing field in today’s NASCAR world and something we bettors of the sport need to keep in mind. Especially in the lower series, I’ll continue backing real talent and fading the silk-stocking variety.
That includes this week as both the Cup and Xfinity Series return to Atlanta Motor Speedway with just 10 races remaining in the season. The books have tightened things up too much for a handling superspeedway with as much variance as Atlanta has, cooking most markets past fair value. With that in mind, we’ll keep the overall card and unit allocation light.
Still, any race is an opportunity to cash, so let’s get to it with my best bets for the 2024 Quaker State 400 and full card for another weekend of NASCAR racing.
2024 Quaker State 400: NASCAR at Atlanta Odds, Picks & Predictions
Top 10: Todd Gilliland (+225 via ESPN BET) | .6u
Todd Gilliland was the standout performer from the spring Atlanta race, leading a race-high 58 laps and earning stage points both opportunities after qualifying fourth. In addition, the driver of the Front Row Motorsports (FRM) No. 38 car had an 8.5 average running position (third-best) and a 91.8 driver rating (eighth-best) in that race.
While the finishes haven’t been there for Gilliland at Atlanta, positive regression will take over if he keeps putting himself in position. At the superspeedways this season, the 24-year-old led 16 laps in the Daytona 500, started third and finished P8 at Talladega and qualified on the front row for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 last month.
If Gilliland unloads like he has been at drafting tracks all season, this +225 T10 number and the 35-1 outright will be long gone. Get in early.
Austin Cindric (-110 via ESPN BET) vs. Chris Buescher | 1.5u
Arguably, one of the most consistent drivers in this year’s Ambetter 400 was Austin Cindric, who finished fourth. That run gives him an average finish of 7.5 in his last four races at the new configuration of Atlanta and a 4-0 record against the favorite in this H2H matchup, Chris Buescher. In that race, Cindric led 32 laps and won stage two. The Ohio native also logged an average running position of 6.6, behind only his teammate Ryan Blaney.
Though Buescher may have finished with a solid P9 in that race, finishes no longer matter to him, as he did not qualify for the playoffs. Now strictly trophy hunting, the Roush Fenway Keselowski (RFK) driver is more likely to be overly aggressive and get caught up in an accident.
Cindric just needs consistent finishes these next three races to advance into the Round of 12. I’ll back him for 1.5 units that he starts the process on Sunday.
Team Penske To Win (+400 via BetRivers) | .8u
Spawning the last two NASCAR Cup Series Championship winners, Team Penske comes to play in the postseason, and - as noted - they were the class of the field in the spring Atlanta race. All three cars started in the top eight of the grid and had the top driver ratings of the race: Blaney (111.7), Joey Logano (102.2) and Cindric (98.8).
Blaney alone has four T10s in the five races at Altnata since the reconfiguration, including finishing P4 or better in eight of the 10 stages. Meanwhile, Logano has started on the front two rows in four of the five races, leading 190 laps in that span and winning last spring.
With this bet, you’re getting three legit bullets at a fair price of 4-1. That’s all you can ask for in the current NASCAR betting landscape returning to “Hotlanta.”
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
Todd Gilliland Outright (+3500 via ESPN BET) | .2u
Focused Health 250 (Xfinity) Bets:
Jesse Love Outright (+550 via ESPN BET) | .5u
Jesse Love T3 (+160 via DraftKings) | 1u
Sammy Smith (-115 via DraftKings) vs. Brandon Jones | 1.5u
Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and host at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.