2024 RBC Canadian Open: PGA Longshot Odds, Picks, & Predictions

by Matthew MacKay |
May 29, 2024

The 2024 RBC Canadian Open is a great opportunity for us to cash in a few longshot PGA outright winners at Hamilton Golf and Country Club this week. It’s the first time the PGA Tour has returned to Hamilton since Rory McIlroy’s seven-stroke win in 2019. This time, a five-year restoration effort led by Martin Ebert will make its presence felt by all golfers who previously competed at the 2019 RBC Canadian Open.

Naturally, the betting favorite is Rory McIlroy, who set a 72-hole course record at Hamilton before restoration, winning with a final scorecard of 22-under-par. Oddsmakers have McIlroy, who has two outright wins and a T12 finish in his last three events, valued as the overwhelming favorite to win this week at short +360 odds in the outright winner market.

Without Scottie Scheffler in the field this week, plus the absence of Xander Schauffele, who won the PGA Championship major at Valhalla a couple of weeks ago, there’s a great chance for some longshot odds to hit in the outright betting market at the RBC Canadian Open this week. After all, Nick Taylor’s 72-foot eagle putt to win the fourth playoff hole over Tommy Fleetwood at this event a year ago cashed odds longer than 100-1. Taylor is 80-1 this week, albeit at a different course than Oakdale, where he won in 2023, but the Canadian also won the Waste Management Phoenix Open at 170-1 back in February.

I’ve found a few golfers primed to make a run at the top of the leaderboard at a renovated Hamilton G&CC course this week, which promises to be a potential birdie-fest. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly analysis.

2024 RBC Canadian Open: Best Longshot Bets

These plays are .25u and .10 u, or 0.25% and 0.10% of your betting bankroll. Odds used exclusively from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Davis Thompson (+5500)

The fact we’re getting 55-1 odds on Davis Thompson indicates oddsmakers feel bullish toward the 24-year-old Georgia native playing well at Hamilton this week. Thompson only has one top-ten finish this season, but it came less than a month ago at the Myrtle Beach Classic, where he went 16-under-par as runner-up.

During the Charles Schwab Challenge, Thompson managed a T17 finish at a much more difficult course with a loaded field. He’s ranked 23rd strokes gained: approaching the green and 48th strokes gained: around-the-green. The young gun is quickly gaining momentum ahead of the RBC Canadian Open, so let’s place a 0.25 unit wager to return big value at +5500 odds for Thompson’s first win since joining the PGA Tour last year.

Robert MacIntyre (+8000)

Robert MacIntyre is another golfer in great form entering the RBC Canadian Open. Getting the Scotsman at 80-1 is very enticing, considering we’ve seen him record two top-ten finishes in the last five events he’s played.

Yes, there have been a couple of missed cuts in between these top-ten finishes, but MacIntyre tends to play much better on courses that cede birdies at a high clip like Hamilton. He’s ranked first in approach shots from 200 yards or more out, 27th in sand save rate, and top-50 in scrambling. MacIntyre is also 21st in bounce back rate and 23rd in going for the green – birdie or better percentage.

A 0.10 unit wager is sufficient to return eight units of profit as MacIntyre seeks his first PGA Tour win, already with three international wins under his belt, along with a runner-up finish in only 44 PGA Tour events played.

Kevin Tway (+17000)

We haven’t seen Kevin Tway compete at a lot of PGA Tour events in 2024, but he’s recorded four top-25 finishes and two top-ten finishes in only seven events. A third-place finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship and a T9 at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in April and early May saw Tway record a final scorecard of 18-under-par or lower.

The Oklahoma native isn’t getting much respect with this 170-1 number, but a 0.10 unit wager yields 17 units of profit. Why not sprinkle on a golfer who is playing well with momentum ahead of a course that surrenders multiple birdies per round? He’s the definition of a longshot golfer who could wind up with his second PGA Tour win, which would end a six-year drought.

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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros & FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

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