2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Odds, Picks & Predictions
This Scottie Scheffler cat is getting on my nerves. He’s marvelous. There’s no question the first six-time winner on the PGA Tour since Tiger Woods in 2009 is likely to steal our lunch money. He has won at an absurd 40% clip in 2024, usually sporting odds that barely cover the cost of fuel to the window. I don’t hate the player, but the game has the golf betting world quivering with clenched fists. Patrick Cantlay and Akshay Bhatia prevented my second-straight shutout, but it would have been nice if one of them could have stormed to the finish like the sense-challenged protestors who were eager to arrange an Uber locked from the inside. At least a reprieve will be afforded for a few weeks, starting in the Motor City.
The Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit is entering its sixth occurrence on the PGA Tour. The event has been a wonderful contributor to the community and has done a very good job of producing a compelling product on the course. Scoring conditions are extremely favorable. While none of the top 20 golfers are in attendance this week, it is widely believed that this is the type of tournament that creates new fan favorites and vaults lesser-known names to the forefront. I will have more long shots on the betting slip this week than in any other stop. This is due to, in large part, overinflated odds on the “favorites.” I’ll withhold most of my wagers for a “bird shot” approach at the bottom of the slip.
2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Golf Club is of average Tour length at just over 7,300 yards but tends to play favorites with longer hitters off the tee. The par-72 often turns into a putting contest, where those who can stick it the closest on approach from wedge distances have the upper hand. Like at TPC River Highlands last week, I want birdie-making machines on my card. The only difference might be that a different style of scorer is preferred at Detroit GC. Putting on Bent-Poa greens is very important. The greens are the only semi-challenging aspect of the course. Fairways are vast and rough is sparse. There aren’t even very many hazards to penalize wayward shots. A streak of pars is enough to doom one to missing the cut. With Gladys Knight and Smokey Robinson shaking the earth beneath me, let’s tee off.
Cameron Young
It was a magical Saturday afternoon for Cameron Young, who carded only the 13th round under 60 in PGA Tour history. His 59 included two eagles (both on par-4s) and a flurry of dazzling approach shots. He has piled on the high leaderboard finishes without a single outright win to date. I believe his first chance to hoist a trophy at this level will come at an event like the Rocket Mortgage Classic. His skill set is coveted on this golf course, especially if his streaky putter stays dialed in.
Picks: Outright +1600 [1u]; Top-5 +360 [1u]
Stephan Jaeger
Who better to bet outright in a bomb and gouge event than the last man to stare into Scheffler’s infernal eyes without blinking? Stephan Jaeger won the Houston Open with a whopping 19 birdies on the week. That course looks like Pinehurst compared to Detroit GC. “Jaeger Bombs” is fifth-best in this field on approach and second in strokes gained on par-5s. I believe more strongly in his ability to attack pins and convert his chances than Tom Kim, who is due for some serious regression to the mean in the birdie department after his flawless performance at the Travelers. The difference in odds is just icing on the cake.
Picks: Outright +2500 [1u]; Top-10 +280 [1u]
Will Zalatoris
It has been an up-and-down campaign for Will Zalatoris. On the heels of a back surgery that cost him most of 2023, Zalatoris has shown well in a few high-profile events this season. Willy Z has still struggled to find the gear in birdie fests he enjoyed before his injury. Much to my surprise, he appeared at the top spot in my stat model this week. He putts better on Bent-Poa greens while enjoying immense success from tee to green when precision ball striking is called for. I want to believe he is fully back. In a field devoid of stars, this is the litmus test for the stars of yesteryear like Zalatoris.
Picks: Outright +3500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +360 [0.5u]
Michael Thorbjornsen
I am completely convinced that Michael Thorbjornsen is the next Scottie Scheffler. He is this year’s version of Ludvig Åberg as the winner of PGA Tour University. He earned his Tour membership card through the 2025 season through his dominance while at Stanford. Thorbjornsen finished 39th at last week’s Travelers, dazzling with a Friday round of 64 while paired with Åberg. Let this be a stern warning to all of the golf world. Thorbjornsen can absolutely win this golf tournament and it will set into motion a career destined for the Hall of Fame.
Picks: Outright +7500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +650 [0.5u]; Top-20 +300 [0.5u]
Deep Shots: Cameron Champ & Bud Cauley
Cameron Champ and Bud Cauley each graced the top of my weighted statistical model, but are fundamentally two different golfers. Champ is the longest hitter in the field and gains most of his opportunities with prowess off the tee. His overarching weakness is on approach, but Champ has been sort of a specialist at wide-open scoring fests during his career. Cauley is outstanding on approach and around the greens but has struggled mightily to find a rhythm with his putter. Each of them has ample scoring firepower to contend this week, with Champ at 120-1 and Cauley at 170-1.
Deeper Shot: Neal Shipley
Young Neal Shipley is a student-athlete at Ohio State and has played in two professional events this season: The Masters and the US Open. He made the cut and was low amateur in both. Shipley is a bomber, but his most outstanding trait might be his silky putting stroke. He’s 300-1 to win outright, but I’m looking at a +850 to finish in the top 20 and +260 odds to crack the top 40. He’s a great fit for the course and has the side-eye down pat.