2024 Scottish Open: Odds, Picks & Predictions
The modeling for the John Deere Classic was absolutely dialed. For the second season in a row, most of the top performers in the Quad Cities were at the forefront of my betting content for the week. This year, it was runaway winner Davis Thompson, whom Pat Fitzmaurice and I each fawned over on the BettingPros PGA Podcast. Then there was rookie Michael Thorbjornsen, who cashed a trifecta of placement bets with his runner-up finish. Finally, Chan Kim played his way into a top-20 placement victory to run a solid overall profit for the week.
Most of the time, I’m a bit more conservative the week before a Major Championship. This is only partially true with the Genesis Scottish Open. Some of the winning odds for my favorite plays are incredibly soft and exploitable. Although I have one eye looking ahead to Royal Troon, I’ll have a good piece of the action along the North Sea in North Berwick, Scotland.
2024 Genesis Scottish Open: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
The Renaissance Club is links golf… adjacent. Whether you call it “modern links” or “neo-links” golf, it isn’t all dunes and burns like next week’s Open Championship. The par-70 jaunt is only 7,200 yards, and only the random summer squalls can protect the scorecard from a barrage of circles and feathers. The fescue rough is hardly penal at all, not even crossing the sock line to rustle one’s kilt. There are pot bunkers, but they aren’t as squarely in play as they are for aesthetics. Only a frigid zephyr can dishevel a golfer’s whiskers at The Renaissance Club. Those can arrive at any moment. Without sheep-shearing weather, another birdie fest will befall us on this transatlantic occasion.
Statistically speaking, I am painting with a broad brush. Ball-striking metrics with a tad more weight on around the green prowess take the cake. The fine detail strokes come when filtering for the strong winds and more difficult scoring conditions that could arise. The painting metaphor comes from the idea that winning here requires a great bit of creativity in shot shaping and recovery should another Scottish meteorologist get sacked. From the Lowlands gazing across the Firth of Forth, let’s tee off.
Rory McIlroy
Not only is Rory McIlroy the defending Scottish Open champion, he is coming off a loss that rightfully has lit a fire under his keister. He gave away the U.S. Open and left a slime of poor sportsmanship burnt into the asphalt, peeling out of the joint. A commemorative plaque adorns the 18th fairway where “Rors” stung his 2-iron into the teeth of the wind to hoist the trophy last season. He is a perfect fit to set this track ablaze without regard to weather conditions.
Picks: Outright +750 [2u]; Top-5 +190 [1u]
Viktor Hovland
The young Norwegian star has been held back this season by regression in his short game. Viktor Hovland is much more adept at getting up and down from off the green when he can get creative. He is also such a ridiculously sharp player on approach that he might not even need to chip much around North Berwick. It seems I’m on an island in believing in Hovland this week. That just means the payout will be even larger when he announces his return to elite golf form.
Picks: Outright +2200 [1u]; Top-5 +450 [1u]
Matt Fitzpatrick
The Englishman is a great note-taker. Matt Fitzpatrick’s attention to detail and dedication to honing his craft to the nth degree is bound to pay off on a quasi-links course that can be a mental slog for most of the field. Should the elements worsen, his edge holds even truer. “Fitz” is a craftsman at varying trajectories and working his way around a golf course. I love how far his odds have slipped at this event.
Picks: Outright +3500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +330 [1u]
Denny McCarthy
To bet on a golfer like Denny McCarthy in an event across the pond is purely a statistical move. He has yet to break through with a win on the PGA Tour, but his skill set is wailing like bagpipes that his moment is imminent. My ultra-filtered model has McCarthy second overall, including a top-five ranking in six categories. His odds are utterly rubbish but in our favor. His ancestry will seep from his pores on this sacred soil. Bet on it working well on the slip.
Picks: Outright +9000 [0.5u]; Top-20 +300 [0.5u]
Deep Shots: Kurt Kitayama & Jordan Smith
While tame weather will open the tournament up to just about anyone to seize, only a few longshots have the mettle to stand firm and lean into the gale. One of whom is windblown NorCal native Kurt Kitayama, who holds triple-digit odds despite placing second to Xander Schauffele here two years ago in truly nasty Scottish weather. Kitayama is exactly the type to thrive in deadliest catch conditions, especially at such long odds.
Jordan Smith has been a standout on the DP World Tour, but those 75 DPWT players in the field are much lesser known to PGA bettors. The Englishman is 150-1 to win outright, but I would very comfortably rank him in the top 20 of this field. He is also a name who will be especially valuable if the weather report switches from sunny to squall.
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