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2024 Sony Open: PGA Longshot Odds, Picks & Predictions

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The PGA Tour island hops from Maui to Honolulu this week, with a full field of 144 players set to tee off from Waialae Country Club. Chris Kirk’s late surge at The Sentry last weekend led him to an outright win, beating Sahith Theegala and Jordan Spieth at the top of the leaderboard. Kirk’s also been dominant at Waialae CC in previous appearances but in this article, we’re focused on players with longshot odds, which doesn’t include Kirk. He’s +2500, entering Thursday’s opening round at the Sony Open with the sixth-best outright odds.

Unlike Kapalua, which was a birdie-fest each round due to a par 73 track, Waialae is a par 70 with numerous doglegged fairways. With just two par 5s, alongside four par 3s, strokes gained on approach is the primary skill set to possess. The coastal breeze is the primary defense, but the weather is projected to be much more comfortable, creating ideal conditions on the Bermudagrass surfaces.

There’s also a cut line enforced at this event, unlike the Signature Event at Kapalua, which only had 59 players in the field, who either won an event outright in 2023 or wound up in the top 50 FedExCup rankings. Last year, Si Woo Kim pulled off the win at -18-under-par, beating Hayden Buckley by a stroke thanks to a red-hot final round of -6-under-par.

In this article, we’ll analyze two of my favorite longshot prospects to wager on in the PGA Tour outright betting market.

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2024 Sony Open: Best Longshot Bets

These plays are .25u and .10 u, or 0.25% and 0.10% of your betting bankroll.

Andrew Putnam (+5500)

34-year-old Andrew Putnam has great value in the outright betting market this week, sitting down at +5500. Putnam’s T40 finish at Kapalua was a result of a slow start in the first two rounds, where the American went 74-71 on the par 73 track. He wound up finding a rhythm in the final two rounds though, logging 67-64 over the weekend.

Putnam’s performance at Waialae in 2023 saw him climb into a T4 finish. Finishing 25th in strokes gained on approach last season, Putnam is positioned to return massive value in the outright betting market, as long as he avoids another slow start. His even par opening round kept Putnam from contending with Kim and Buckley on the back-nine during the final round a year ago. A runner-up finish at Waialae in 2019 further demonstrates Putnam’s comfort at this course, so let’s stake .25u on him to finally break through in Honolulu, ending his six-year winning drought.

Hayden Buckley (+27000)

Hayden Buckley is available in the outright betting market with a ridiculous +27000 odds at the 2024 Sony Open. Oddsmakers are likely undervaluing Buckley due to his poor finish in late 2023, which saw the 27-year-old Tennessee native go MC, T64, 72, T59, MC down the stretch.

Buckley was good enough to advance to the FedEx St. Jude Championship last season, logging four T10 finishes, including runner-up at The Sony Open. A T12 debut at Waialae saw Buckley improve with a second-place finish. He had the outright lead after three rounds, but only managed to go -2-under-par on Sunday, allowing Si Woo Kim to usurp him for the outright win.

Off-the-tee, Buckley ranked 10th on the PGA Tour last season, while also cracking the top-ten in total driving, and second in approach shots from 250-275 yards out. His putter ranked ninth from 9 feet out and 12th from 10-15 feet out, while also managing to rank top-40 in scrambling. His game isn’t perfect, but at 270/1 odds, combined with his comfort level at Waialae and motivation from Sunday’s round a year ago, Buckley is worth sprinkling on with a .10 unit wager in the outright betting market.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

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