2024 Sony Open: PGA Odds, Picks & Predictions
Despite a decent showing at last week’s Sentry, the 2024 PGA Tour season begins in earnest with the full-field Sony Open. A few of the gentlemen will merely hop from Maui to Oahu to take on Wai’alae Country Club, where the similarities end with the home state where the event is held.
At certain times during the marathon golf season, the books are at risk of having their lunch money snatched by sharp bettors (like us). Wai’alae has a type, and it’s not normally a betting favorite.
2024 Sony Open Bets: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings SportsBook)
Wai’alae is demanding. The fairways are tight and fast, lined with trees. The greens are slick and appear as specks compared to the expansive complexes at Kapalua. The course is also a par-70 and about 600 yards shorter in length. Last week’s bombs-away putting contest is now a shotmaker’s paradise where an iron off the tee and a short iron will test the mettle of 150 of the world’s best. It isn’t grueling by any stretch of the imagination. We’re still in Hawaii, after all. However, the Sony Open is the antithesis of The Sentry. This is also true of the betting lines at your sportsbook.
Past performance here, or even a previous gander, is closely correlated with future success at the Sony Open. An accurate golfer from the tee will unlock scoring chances with a precise approach, especially on the 10 par-4 holes. Smaller greens also equate to more of a demand on one’s short-game prowess. I am cheerful to announce that it is highly unlikely our champion come Sunday will have been bet at better than 20-1 odds before the action tees off on Thursday morning.
Here are the golfers I will be ponying up for this week.
Brian Harman
Whereas young phenom Ludvig Åberg comes in as a roaring favorite, I am not quite ready to crown him. He looked abysmal in premium scoring conditions last week and is another easy fade this week at 12-1. Brian Harman, the Champion Golfer of 2023, fits this course like a glove. He is incredibly accurate and sports one of the strongest short games in the world. He is also still amid a scorching hot streak that unexpectedly brought him into contention last week.
Picks: Outright +2000 [1u]; Top-5 +450 [1u]
Russell Henley
When I picture the quintessential golfer going low at a course like Wai’alae, it lines up perfectly with how Russell Henley carries himself. One of the most accurate players off the tee is also lethal from short iron distances. He is also strong around the green among this lesser field, coming in 37th in Strokes Gained: ARG. This was on full display when Henley finished runner-up at the 2021 Sony Open. Go big on this bet.
Picks: Outright +2000 [1u]; Top-5 +450 [1u]
Si Woo Kim
I haven’t the foggiest idea how it is possible for the defending champion to sport 35-1 odds, but it’s a blessing from the heavens. The Korean phenom seems to always rise to the occasion on courses of this type, and I was prepared to bet on him as low as 20-1 this week. Although Si Woo Kim has scuffled somewhat since the back half of last season, he is a streaky and sneaky pick to find his groove again on Oahu and pay off in a huge way.
Picks: Outright +3500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +360 [1u]
Akshay Bhatia
For as much fanfare as Åberg is receiving early on in 2024, his form has paled in comparison to Ashkay Bhatia’s. This is especially true on approach from the key distances at Wai’alae (125-175 yards). His short game was a major detractor to success during last year’s rookie season, but his new “broomstick” putting strategy was incredible at Kapalua. For how stellar Bhatia is from tee to green, he can also boast a PGA Tour win on his resumé. He is already over the hump and rolling as pure as it gets entering the Sony Open.
Picks: Outright +6000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +600 [1u]
Dylan Wu
Yes, Dylan Wu narrowly missed the cut at last year’s Sony Open. Yet, he also had strong showings at courses of similar ilk throughout the rest of the 2023 season, including five top-20 finishes. He is 35th in this field in Stokes Gained: Approach and one of the world’s best putters. Even though Wu struggles off the tee, this is amplified in the stats by events with more demands on driving distance. Since that plays virtually no factor here, a 150-1 line is honestly an insult.
Picks: Outright +15000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +550 [0.75u]
Bonus Bet: Hayden Buckley
For nearly the entire 2023 season, Hayden Buckley held the best scoring average on Tour if you simply discarded the second round. That average tailed off during his cold stretch to end the campaign, but he still sported the ninth-best final-round scoring average on Tour. Something about Wai’alae fits his eye; Buckley was on his way to a breakthrough victory at last year’s Sony Open until Kim pulled off a stunning finish to snatch it away. Buckley is as streaky as it gets, so I’ll throw a few shekels on his continued success here with a Thursday payday for the ages.
First Round Leader +11000 [0.5u]
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: