2024 South Point 400: NASCAR at Las Vegas Odds, Picks & Predictions
It’s Vegas, baby! One of the most popular vacation destinations in the U.S. plays host yet again to the NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series this weekend, with just four races remaining in the 2024 season.
I have a love/hate relationship with Sin City myself. I was 24 when I took my first cross-country flight out to the desert to shoot video of some industry colleagues’ NFL Draft party on the strip. For a small-town kid, it was quite the site to see an entire city built around the shit our parents told us not to do: gamble, drink and smoke darts (among other things).
Funny enough, some of my other back-home buddies were also in town for a bachelor party, so the first few days were a hoot watching them gamble away their money as I made constant trips around the corner to the $3 domestic beer cart. Ultimately, the Vegas flew caught up with me after just two nights, and I limped it the rest of the way home.
Still, I fully get the appeal of a place like Las Vegas, where you can essentially do whatever you want whenever you want. And while I’m sure I’ll have a redeeming trip at some point - until then - I’m more than content with staying on my side of the sticks, betting the race from afar.
The sportsbooks did us little favors this week, juicing the hell out of the remaining Cup Series playoff drivers. But you can’t blame them; the races here are nothing like the city. They’re usually 267 laps of predictability and chalk, with the cream rising to the top.
That didn’t stop us from firing away, though. We just had to get creative and be content with drinking our dose of juice.
Let’s continue to roll the dice with my best bets for the 2024 South Point 400 and full card for a weekend of NASCAR racing in the “Gambling Capital of the World.”
2024 South Point 400: NASCAR at Las Vegas Odds, Picks & Predictions
Top 3: Kyle Larson (-115 via DraftKings) | 3u
I usually don’t advise betting a Cup Series T3 placement prop at minus odds, but if there was ever a time to do it, this is it. Kyle Larson has not only won the past two races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway but has dominated them. The California native swept the first two stages in both races and led a combined 314 of 534 laps (58.8%).
He is firmly No. 1 in the Las Vegas Next-Gen total speed rankings, courtesy of ifantasyrace.com, never pacing outside the top-five in total speed in any of the five races. This has resulted in a first-place or runner-up finish in every race he didn’t wreck out of.
That’s the only concern here: Larson getting in his own way. He’s done that a few times at high-speed intermediate comp tracks like Texas, where he had a rocket but got into trouble. He did cross the finish line first, though, at our closest comp track of Kansas in the spring. I expect more of the same from the Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) driver coming off a win last week at the Charlotte ROVAL.
Top 10: William Byron (-240 via BetRivers) | 3u
There’s no getting around it: This is a ton of juice. However, parlayed with a heavy-favored College Football moneyline like #14 Texas A&M (-670 at BetRivers) over Mississippi State brings this down to respectable -159 odds. That’s good enough for me to get invested with William Byron, who has three straight T5s coming in.
The 26-year-old has been the model of consistency at Las Vegas, starting on the front two rows in the last four races and finishing T10 in four of five Next-Gen competitions here. He’s good for third in the Next-Gen total speed rankings despite having a garbage bag derail his run in the spring.
With Byron also finishing T5 at four of the five comp tracks, a T10 for the driver of the HMS No. 24 Chevrolet Camero this weekend should be little to no sweat.
Top 10: Denny Hamlin (-250 via DraftKings) | 4u
This will be another placement prop that you’ll need to parlay with something chalky to take off the juice, whether that’s football or maybe a Formula 1 play. For me, I went with (again) the Texas A&M moneyline (-800 at DraftKings) and Army (-700) vs. Eastern Carolina for combined odds of -125.
Denny Hamlin should hold up his end of the bargain with relative ease. He’s led laps in eight straight Las Vegas races and has scored stage points in 15 of the 16 stages in that span. As a whole, he’s finished T10 in three of five Next-Gen era Las Vegas races. And in the ones he didn’t, he finished P11 and P32 when he lost his drivetrain.
In the spring specifically, Hamlin was seventh in both the total speed rankings and green flag speed. He also had a 7.1 average finishing (fourth-best) and a 106.7 driver rating (sixth-best). At the comp tracks, he’s four for five at finishing T10, with the only blemish coming at Texas, where he spun late in the going for the win.
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
Kyle Larson Outright (+375 via BetRivers) | 1.25u
William Byron Outright (+850 via FanDuel) | .5u
Joey Logano Outright (+1800 via Caesars) | .2u
Ambetter Health 302 (Xfinity) Bets:
Chandler Smith Outright (+600 via FanDuel) | 1.25u
Chandler Smith T5 (+100 via ESPN BET) | 3u
Seth Woolcock is a featured writer and editor at BettingPros. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, check out In-Between Media & follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF.