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2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open: Odds, Picks & Predictions

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Don’t count me in with the folks who bask in small victories. We profited again at last week’s Valspar Championship, even without outright winner Peter Malnati on the betting slip. Top-5 placement bets cashed on runner-up Cameron Smith and Xander Schauffele, along with a longshot top-20 heater on Kevin Roy. It’s still bittersweet. That elusive first win for Smith sauntered away late on Sunday to dash our hopes of a 22-1 payday. We’re on to Houston.

2024 Texas Children’s Houston Open: Odds, Picks & Predictions

(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

The Texas Children’s Houston Open has been held in November for the last four years but has returned to the springtime windswept pollen at Memorial Park Municipal Golf Course. The 7,400 yards and change are only allotted over a par-70 with four par-4 holes that stretch beyond 500 yards in length. Longer hitters will enjoy wide fairways and modest consequences to a wayward tee ball. The Bermuda greens are massive and lightning fast, rolling into tightly-mown run-off areas. Short-game scrambling will be just as important as approach play this week. The stat model favors good ball striking with an adequate short game and, most importantly, converting on birdie chances where they present themselves. With the faint sound of someone banging on a trash can in the distance, let’s tee off.

Wyndham Clark

Over his last two starts, Wyndham Clark has played better than everyone… except Scottie Scheffler. I think Clark gets the last laugh in Houston this week. Scheffler’s odds are exceedingly short, leaving no bang for the bucks required to make a bet on him fun. Clark is blazing hot right now from tee to green and is a truly world-class putter. Vengeance will be had.

Picks: Outright +1200 [1u]; Top-5 +280 [1u]

Sahith Theegala

I have difficulty picturing any scenario other than another epic showdown between Scheffler and Clark this week. If that happens, my other bets must feature the golfers with enough firepower to keep pace. Sahith Theegala is that player. He is second-best in my model after Scheffler and is stellar around the green. Theegala’s wayward ways with the driver won’t be met with Draconian consequences at Memorial Park, so he will be able to showcase the rest of his outstanding game frequently.

Picks: Outright +1800 [1u]; Top-10 +190 [1u]

Jake Knapp

Speaking of firepower, Jake Knapp epitomizes the nuclear upside that will be needed to best Scheffler or Clark. We were with him in Mexico for his first PGA Tour victory and get the benefit of longer odds in Houston because of how Knapp scuffled in Florida. Knapp’s length off the tee and strong short game will fit this course well. Memorial Park is like Vidanta with faster greens and a touch of wind. “The Big Siesta” might have another fiesta.

Picks: Outright +5500 [0.5u]; Top-10 +450 [0.5u]; First-Round Leader +6000 [0.5u]

Sam Ryder

Among long shots in this field, it was tough to imagine any of them rising high enough to slay the beasts we expect to set the tone. Sam Ryder is most known for his week-over-week volatility but rates out well in the modeling. Ryder will either contend or miss the cut in a billow of smoke. He rates out as the best in this entire field in converting birdies or better over his last 24 rounds. I like that upside; it will play.

Picks: Outright +11000 [0.25u]; Top-20 +350 [0.75u]

Live Bet to Make: Scottie Scheffler

Only suckers are betting Scheffler at +260. There’s just no juice in the squeeze. My advice is to wait and see how he starts on Thursday. We’ve seen Scheffler erase an eight-stroke deficit in one day very recently. He is the Boogey Man. Should he slump behind early on Thursday (he has an early tee time), his odds will reflect that on the live wagering streets. I’d jump on him as soon as you see better than +500 odds to win outright.

Deep Shots: Bud Cauley & Alejandro Tosti

Bud Cauley (+18000) and Alejandro Tosti (+40000) are a pair of lads with gargantuan power and subsequent volatility. I’ve made dumber bets than these, especially if you throw some money on a top-20 or top-40, like with Roy last week. Cauley is less radioactive than Tosti, but the Argentinian is about as exciting as an amateur rocket launch.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday: