Navigate

2024 The Sentry: PGA Longshot Odds, Picks & Predictions

by |

The 2024 PGA Tour season is officially underway with its first Signature Event held at The Sentry. Hosted at the Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort in Maui, Hawaii, 59 golfers will compete in a cut-less, four-day event along the coastal shorelines of Maui. All 50 players who qualified for the BMW Championship, the second FedExCup playoff event in 2023, plus any player who won an outright event in 2023 on the PGA Tour, received eligibility to compete at The Sentry this weekend.

Kapalua is a par 73 that runs roughly 7,600 yards, featuring four par 3s and four par 5s, without many water hazards to overcome. Coastal winds will be the biggest obstacle to overcome, along with numerous sand bunkers flanking bermudagrass fairways. The Tifeagle Bermudagrass greens run 11 feet via Stimpmeter, slightly slower than the standard 12-foot putting velocity on most PGA Tour courses to counter the wind. It’s going to be a birdie-fest, as previous winners have gone -27-under-par, -34-under-par, and -25-under-par.

In this article, I’ll provide two of my favorite longshot bets to win the 2024 Sentry outright.

Make sure to follow me on Twitter to get more free plays and PGA Tour best bets.

2024 The Sentry: Best Longshot Bets

These plays are .5u and .25u, or 0.5% and 0.25% of your betting bankroll.

Eric Cole (+5500 via FanDuel): 0.50u

It’s pretty remarkable that Eric Cole has yet to win a PGA Tour event outright. It’s the only reason oddsmakers are giving the 35-year-old Californian +5500 odds to win The Sentry outright. Cole has been on fire lately, logging finishes of 4, T35, T3, T2, and T3 entering this event.

Cole brandishes one of the best putters on the PGA Tour, and now, he’s begun to dial in his irons, ranking 16th in total strokes gained. Cole ranks 11th in fairway proximity, which means he avoids bad lies off the tee, giving him frequent birdie opportunities. Since Cole ranks second in total putting, fourth in birdie or better conversion rate, and fourth in one-putt percentage, he’s a realistic longshot to go on a heater to seize his first career win while competing in a loaded field.

Cole is currently top 30 in scoring on par 3, par 4, and par 5 holes, while also ranking 28th in scrambling. He’s the real deal, so hop on these lucrative odds before Cole tees off on Thursday afternoon.

J.T. Poston (+8000 via FanDuel): 0.25u

J.T. Poston is familiar with Kapalua and The Sentry event, finishing inside the top-25, going T21 and T11 in his previous two appearances. Poston was playing quality golf down the stretch at the end of last season, finishing T6-T6-T2-T7 in four of his past five events prior to the FedExCup playoffs.

Poston’s last outing resulted in a T44 finish at the RSM Classic in November, but before that pedestrian showing, Poston logged a T3 finish at the Shriners Children’s Open in mid-October. Poston finished 2023 29th in strokes gained putting, ranking highly in numerous approach metrics. His irons are sharp, but his putter tends to betray him at times, preventing Poston from compiling even bigger numbers on the golf course.

Ranked 24th in fairway proximity, 34th in total putting, 28th in birdie rate on par 4s, Poston has the skillset and drive to compete for the outright win at The Sentry this weekend. +8000 odds is too enticing to pass up, especially with two strong previous finishes at T21 and T11 at Kapalua. His inconsistent play is a big reason for these odds, but Poston has two career wins since turning pro in 2017, winning at Wyndham in 2019 and the John Deere Classic in 2022. Eight T10 finishes in 2023 sets Poston up to be a massive return on value at The Sentry, so sprinkle with 0.25 units at +8000.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Wednesday:


Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros and BettingPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

Try Premium for FREE in our mobile app

BettingPros App