2024 U.S. Open: Odds, Picks & Predictions
It was a rare week at the Memorial Tournament. I got shut out. Nothing worked out how I imagined, and I was forced to tip my cap to Scottie Scheffler. His fifth win of the season was not dominant, but he didn’t need to wash away the field to hang on at Jack’s place. I won’t fight it this week. It’s a Major and one where I nailed a 70-1 Wyndham Clark outright last year. I will be aggressive, but I will never underestimate Scheffler again.
The US Open returns to Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina. The USGA likes carnage. We should all expect “scoring” to be a relative term this week. The strongest full-sized field in championship golf will provide a champion who can grin through the tears and keep his chin above water for four days in the sweltering southern heat on one of the most challenging courses on the planet.
2024 US Open: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Pinehurst No. 2 asks that you kneel and kiss the ring. It is a malevolent beast at over 7,500 yards and a par-70. Everything is fast. The fairways are lined with sandy waste areas pocked with wire grass and gorse bushes instead of long rough. The greens are perched above the surrounding collection areas of tightly mown Bermuda and crowned severely on their perimeters. Any approach that misses its mark will trundle off the green and into a hardpan lie or worse.
The most desired attribute to carry into Pinehurst is a strong short game. Chipping and putting on and around these greens is nearly everything. It will require touch and creativity from the golfers, as well as patience. The onus is on the golfer not to compound the inevitable mistakes.
Furthermore, accuracy from tee to green can and will help the players avoid the big numbers that lurk on all 18 holes at Pinehurst. The conditions are shaping up to be brutal. I expect a winning score around even par. Betting this event features a mix of favorites and longshots. Bogey avoidance and scrambling, along with recent form and performance in Majors, will factor into these decisions.
With vivid memories of the great Payne Stewart, let’s tee off.
Scottie Scheffler
It takes a large wager to make a Scheffler win feel like an accomplishment. That’s exactly what I intend to do. Scheffler simply gives himself multitudes more opportunities than the rest of the field. He is omnipotent from tee to green, especially on approach, but his most underrated attribute is his touch around the green. Nobody makes more tap-in pars than Scheffler. While everyone is stressing over knee-bucklers, the world’s best is dragging cops and making babies. He has ice water in his veins, and no line is too short. Scheffler draws my most aggressive wager of the season since I can’t really envision anyone else touching him with the way he is dominating the sport.
Picks: Outright +300 [3u]; Top-5 -140 [1u]
Bryson DeChambeau
“Play boring golf.” Sure, Bryson DeChambeau is anything but dull. He also understands that par is gaining strokes on the field on this stern test of a golf course. Find the fairway. Hit the middle of the green. Two putts and in. It sounds simple, but the concept might fly by the wayside as soon as DeChambeau puts a tee in the ground. On sheer talent alone, he has the firepower to win anywhere against any field. DeChambeau has been a Major stalwart in 2024, and his supposed weak short game is markedly better on tougher courses of over 7,400 yards.
Picks: Outright +2000 [1u]; Top-5 +400 [1u]
Cameron Smith
My absolute favorite pick of the week is also the most egregious line on the board… in our favor. I feel so strongly that Cameron Smith will contend here that I am betting the trifecta. The mulleted Aussie has the best short game on the entire planet. When asked about the course, he said he loved it. This is a severe departure from the bellyaching we have heard from some players about the difficult conditions. Smith has the right mindset, and the 2022 Open champion has the game to boot.
Picks: Outright +5000 [1u]; Top-5 +750 [1u]; Top-10 +350 [1u]
Deep Shots: Christiaan Bezuidenhout & Denny McCarthy
Keeping with the short-game narrative, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Denny McCarthy are each world-class and are at much deeper odds than I expected. Take advantage. I outlined a few more US Open longshots here. “Bez” and McCarthy get up and down with the best of them and have each played marvelous golf this season.
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