2024 Wells Fargo Championship: Odds, Picks & Predictions
Through 36 holes, I was soaring with the eagles. Our beloved Jake Knapp was carrying our 80-1 tickets with him into the weekend with the outright lead. Even though his weekend was riddled with snap hooks off the tee and a plethora of missed putts, he cashed our top-10 wager at +800. That winner, combined with a top-40 cash from deep shot Dylan Wu, just about broke us even for the week. It was a solid result from a tournament where I was on the cautious side.
This week is a whole different story. The Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Golf Club in Charlotte, N.C., is universally beloved by players and fans alike. It is a signature event, meaning the elevated purse will be divided among 68 golfers after 72 holes with no cut. The Wells Fargo is circled on my calendar as a green flag event, meaning I feel great about how my stat modeling narrowed down the options, and I will wager with unabashed confidence.
2024 Wells Fargo Championship: Odds, Picks & Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Quail Hollow Golf Club is a gorgeous Jack Nicklaus design with a lot of personality and teeth. The par-71 is a behemoth at nearly 7,600 yards, and its finishing stretch, "The Green Mile," is among the most difficult on Tour. Although it will require acuity throughout the golf bag, Quail Hollow's biggest stressor is off the tee. Distance and accuracy are both required to position oneself for long approach shots into tricky Bermuda green complexes.
Bogey avoidance and par-4 scoring were weighted heavily in my model, in addition to strokes gained and opportunities gained metrics. I also filtered my results over the last 24 rounds on courses more than 7,400 yards with Bermuda greens. With tar on my heels and ribs on the pit, let's tee off.
Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy is one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the game’s history. He is both long and accurate with the driver, which means the absolute most at Quail Hollow. This is evidenced by McIlroy’s three victories here, including his very first triumph on Tour as a duck-fluffed 20-year-old. McIlroy simply creates a ton of scoring opportunities for himself and gains more strokes on the field the tougher the conditions get. Don’t sleep on his short game, either. McIlroy ranks sixth in this field in gaining strokes around the green and ninth in overall short game. I’m putting as much gusto behind this bet as I can muster.
Picks: Outright +650 [2u]; Top-5 +170 [1u]
Max Homa
Horses for courses part deux is a player with nearly as much pedigree in Charlotte as McIlroy. Max Homa won this event in 2022, but that was at Avenel Farm during Quail Hollow’s renovation. Fear not, Homa also hoisted the Wells Fargo Championship trophy here at Quail Hollow in 2019 and finished tied for eighth here last year. He is long and straight off the tee and has always been a strong approach player, creating tons of birdie opportunities. Homa comes in third overall in my statistical model, thanks to six metrics where he is in the top five in this beefed-up field. Riviera Country Club is the most similar course on the rota, so it’s no mystery why Max is comfortable here.
Picks: Outright +2000 [1u]; Top-5 +400 [1u]
Collin Morikawa
When I picture the perfect golfer for this golf course, I see someone who is very consistent in the fairway with adequate length. That same player must also be laser-accurate with his mid and long irons on approach. I am picturing Collin Morikawa. He ranked in the top 15 in this field in seven different metrics I applied, including sixth-best on approach and opportunities gained. I can’t help but fawn over Morikawa’s performance at the Masters last month, along with his stellar final round at comparative course Riviera CC in February. The signs of life are very encouraging.
Picks: Outright +2200 [1u]; Top-10 +230 [1u]
Kurt Kitayama
NorCal native Kurt Kitayama is a grinder. He seems to always play his best in the most difficult scoring conditions. His distance off the tee is plenty adequate and he is second-best in this field on approach distances of over 200 yards. Another supporting metric is greens in regulation gained, where Kitayama ranks 12th in this stacked field. This isn’t just a homer pick. Kitayama is the prototype golfer to succeed at Quail Hollow.
Picks: Outright +6000 [0.5u]; Top-10 +500 [0.5u]
Deep Shot: Gary Woodland
Although throwing more than a couple of dollars on Gary Woodland wouldn’t be wise, he is No. 1 in my model this week. My most likely wagers will be for him to finish top-20 (+550) and top-30 (+260). Woodland is at his best on longer courses, where his distance off the tee and long iron play can shine. He also putts better on Bermuda than other types of surfaces, ranked 14th in this field over his last 24 rounds.
If you’re looking for even more guidance with your One and Done picks for the rest of this season, PoolGenius has you covered with one of the most intuitive One and Done tools you’ll find. Now that they have entered the world of golf pools, here are some of the key features that you will find in their Golf One And Done Picks tools:
- Customized pick advice
- Track past picks and see data for multiple entries
- Weekly pick grades
- Season Planner tool
Check out PoolGenius Golf Pool Picks "