Iowa vs. South Carolina: Prop Bet Picks (2024 Women’s National Championship)

by Kelly Kirby |
Apr 07, 2024

The 2024 NCAA Women’s Championship features undefeated South Carolina against Iowa in a rematch from last year’s biggest tournament upset when the Hawkeyes shocked the world with a 77-73 win in the Final Four. There are great players all over these rosters and plenty of prop bets available for fans. And, of course, the anticipation around Caitlin Clark’s performance and the potential for another unbelievable display of skill underscores the significance of this moment for the women’s championship.

Let’s take a look at my favorites for this afternoon’s matchup.

Iowa vs. South Carolina: Best 2024 Women’s Championship Prop Bets

All odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Caitlin Clark Over 32.5 Points (-110)

Look, here’s my deal: Watching Caitlin Clark shoot logo threes at this level of basketball has created must-see television at a time when we rarely all watch and/or care about the same thing at the same time. We wear our “If you break it, you own it” t-shirts, and we argue why she is/isn’t the greatest. NBA players tweet in real time about the games they’re watching. People in bars in states nowhere near Iowa are demanding women’s basketball take precedence on the primary screens to see what she might be able to do next.

She is not the first to do any of it, of course. These trails have been blazing for 40+ years, and I hope against hope that people realize women’s basketball (among other sports) is worth watching. Long after Clark enters the WNBA and the next wave of talent rolls into the collegiate limelight, this level of entertainment does not stop and has been around longer than most people can imagine.

But I also know watershed moments when I see them. This has been one for the ages, and it all comes down to today.

In what is guaranteed to be Clark’s last college game, she faces the juggernaut that is Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks as the last obstacle to what some believe she needs to claim the GOAT crown. In last year’s upset versus South Carolina, Clark slashed 41/6/8, and while that seems like a simpler time, she’s back as the underdog once again in the 2024 Women’s Championship. It’s a role she embraces and enjoys, and she will play the game the only way she knows how.

Clark’s odds on a triple-double are at +425, and there is a part of me that wants to bet that sucker and let it all ride. (Truthfully, I probably will sprinkle on it.) But for today’s recommendation, I’m going to bet that the all-time leading scorer will find that sixth or seventh gear that most don’t have and get to 33 points.

Could she do it with 11 threes? Probably not, though I can see her getting past the prop line of 5.5 threes (-125). Could she get to 10 assists (-120)? Sure. Could she come up with eight rebounds (+100) or 10? Of course.

If we’ve learned nothing else over the past four years, we should know by now that Caitlin Clark is capable of all of this and then some. And she will leave nothing out there against South Carolina because she never has against anyone.

Take the points.

Sydney Affolter Over 6.5 Rebounds (-120)

The Gamecocks will not allow the Hawkeyes to get into their running game and will do what it can to disrupt their “flow,” which is what allowed CC and Company to average 91.4 points per game. I assume SC will forego crashing the offensive boards to ensure they can get back to establish their half-court defense. This should open up defensive rebounds for Iowa. However, my focus on Affolter is her ability to body up and crash boards against the trees in the lane on either end of the floor. She always seems to come up with the ball when Iowa needs her to. Case in point, her seventh rebound against UConn came on Clark’s missed free throw with three seconds left in the semifinals to essentially seal the deal. She’s the quiet X factor in today’s matchup.

Kamilla Cardoso Under 18.5 Points (-105)

The Hawkeyes are going to need a plan for Cardoso and her imposing 6’7″ frame on both ends of the court. Thus far in the tournament, they have come up with ways to neutralize what looks like significant height discrepancies on paper. I think a sprinkle on Cardoso’s rebounds line of 10.5 is worthwhile at +100; however, betting the “Under” on her points prop is more about how deep South Carolina is than anything about how Iowa might defend her offensively. Cardoso averaged 14.3 points during the regular season and has averaged 17 in the four games she’s played in the tournament. How many minutes she plays will depend entirely on their defensive scheme. I think she gets to 18 in the 2024 Women’s Championship, but no more.

Raven Johnson Over 5.5 Assists (+110)

Iowa struggles defensively when it comes to allowing assists to opponents. They rank 360th in the nation while giving up 14.6 dimes per game. Johnson averaged 4.9 assists during the regular season and 4.7 during the tournament. While both numbers are under our targeted line, South Carolina can work the inside-outside game against Iowa’s zone defense, which could lead to increased assist opportunities for Johnson. Assuming the Hawkeyes can keep the game close enough for the Gamecocks’ starters to stay in, I think Johnson crosses this line with ease.

Ashlyn Watkins Under 8.5 Points (+100)

Thus far in the tournament, Watkins has been a rebounding machine, racking up 34 in the last two games alone. She has not, however, been a points machine, averaging 7.6 per game. A line of 8.5 is daunting for a player who doesn’t shoot threes, and I like the plus-money on what I see as a toss-up.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday:

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