2024 Women’s NCAA Tournament Player Predictions: Caitlin Clark (3/25)
Caitlin Clark props are the only player props being offered for today’s eight-game 2024 Women’s NCAA Tournament slate, but that’s okay. Betting Caitlin Clark props is the most fun you can have on a Monday night in March.
So let’s check out the lines and see where the value is.
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2024 Women’s NCAA Tournament Player Props: Caitlin Clark
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Caitlin Clark (Iowa) Over 31.5 Points (-110)
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again for eternity! Don’t overthink it here, folks. When it comes to Caitlin Clark, you either bet the Over, or you don’t make a bet. Who wants the agony of having to sweat out a Caitlin Clark Under scoring prop? Even if you win, how many years were taken of your life? Was it worth it? Life’s too short to bet Unders, especially when it involves the player with more points than any man or woman in the history of college basketball!
Now for the objective part:
There was juice in the plus-value being offered on her scoring 34+ points in the first round against Holy Cross. The value is gone and back to -110, but the number is down as well. Clark, whose 31.8 points per game average leads the nation, had exceeded the previous 33.5 number in just 14-of-33 games (42.4%) this season, which was still pretty incredible when you think about what it takes to score 34+ points in a (usually) 40-minute game. However, the line dropping two whole points from 33.5 to 31.5 naturally increases the likelihood, as she went for 32+ in 17-of-33 (51.5%), meaning the line is back in the land of more likely than not and back down below (albeit fractionally) her season average.
On the season, Clark averaged 0.927 points for every minute she was on the court, so at that pace, it takes her about 34.5 minutes of court time to reach 32 points. Clark only scored 27 points against Holy Cross but she also only played 31 minutes in a 91-65 laugher. The 31 minutes were her fewest since playing just 29 minutes in a 48-point victory at Minnesota back on February 28. Last Tournament, Clark played just 29 minutes during Iowa’s First Round matchup against SE Louisana before playing all 40 minutes in the Second Round against Georgia. We don’t need 40 minutes from her at her 0.972 points per minute pace from the regular season; we just need 34.5 minutes, which she should exceed against West Virginia, meaning she should hit the Over in this one.
Caitlin Clark (Iowa) Over 4.5 Three-Pointers Made (-135)
Ponytail Pete has drained 5+ three-pointers in 20-of-34 (58.8%), including six of her last 10 games. Caitlin Clark has never been shy about shooting from deep and has attempted double-digit three-pointers in 27-of-34 (79.4%) games this season, including 21 of her last 23 games. Clark eclipsed 4.5 three-pointers in 19-of-27 (70.4%) games in which she attempted at least 10 shots from beyond the arc. Clark should easily hit 5+ three-pointers against West Virginia, but it also might take some sweating out, as in five of her 21 games in which she hit this number, she finished at exactly five.
Caitlin Clark (Iowa) Over 9.5 Assists (-125)
This 9.5 number also sits just above her season average of 8.9 assists. It’s like Vegas knows or something…Clark has tallied double-digit assists in 10 of her last 13 games and 19 times in 34 games this season. Even being the most prolific scorer in NCAA history, Clark is constantly looking for her teammates. Nothing about that should change against West Virginia. CC has reached 10+ assists in six of her last nine tournament games and has not had fewer than eight in a tournament game since totaling just five against UConn on March 27, 2021, nearly three years ago, so if you can find 8+ as an alternate, line, it’s a lock. Regardless, it means she should be around this number.
Caitlin Clark (Iowa) Over 7.5 Rebounds (-120)
This 7.5 number sits just above her season average of 7.3 rebounds. Clark has brought down at least eight boards in six of her last ten games. She also has a height advantage over the entire West Virginia backcourt, as no Mountaineer guard is taller than 5 foot 11 inches, so the 6-foot Clark should be able to eclipse this mark on Monday. She has hit this number in six of her last ten games and has averaged 8.3 rebounds in that span.
Caitlin Clark (Iowa) Triple-Double: Yes (+255)
Caitlin Clark will easily reach double-digit points. Her lowest-scoring game this season was 21 points, so the first “double” is a given. Check!
Caitlin Clark has totaled double-digit assists in 19-of-34 (58.9%) games this season, including three straight. The second “double” appears to be more likely than not. Check!
Here’s the rub: Rebounds. They are her “worst” statistic of the big three because “worst” is a relative term. She averages 7.3 boards on the season and has brought down 10+ rebounds in just 9-of-34 (26.5%) games this season. However, in the nine games in which she totaled 10+ rebounds, she recorded a triple-double in six of them. This will easily be the hardest “double” of the triple-double, but she also has 17 career triple-doubles, more than every person in the history of NCAA basketball besides the legendary Sabrina Ionescu and her 26. The +255 juice is just too much, considering she has six triple-doubles already this season. There is risk, but it’s Caitlin Clark, so it’s worth a sprinkle.
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Luke Monaldo is a featured writer at BettingPros. Follow him on Twitter @MoKnowsSports and Discord @alydar1227 AKA The GIFTing Crooner. For more from Luke, check out his archive.