2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational, Picks & Predictions: Best PGA Bets

We’ve got another Signature Event ready to tee off at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. 72 of the PGA Tour’s top golfers will compete at Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge. This is a par 72 course running 7,466 yards, with plenty of water hazards to overcome during the annual Florida swing. Top 50 and golfers within 10 strokes of the lead after Round 2 will make the cut line into the weekend, competing for a $4 million first-place finish out of a $20 million purse.

Scottie Scheffler has won this event two of the last three years, including a strong -6-under-par finish on Sunday in 2024 to beat Wyndham Clark by five strokes at -15-under-par. Unsurprisingly, the World’s No. 1 ranked golfer opens as the outright betting favorite at +320 odds. Scheffler is followed by Rory McIlroy (+750), Ludvig Aberg (+1600), Xander Schauffele (+1800), and Collin Morikawa (+2000).

My Cognizant Classic best bets went 0-3 at PGA National this past week. Daniel Berger recording a top 20 finish at +140 looked great after Round 1. Unfortunately, he regressed each of the next three rounds, posting a T25 finish to slide one stroke outside of a top-20 finish after going 1-over-par on Sunday. Lucas Glover to record a top 30 finish at +140 odds never had a chance, as the PGA Tour veteran failed to make the cut. Finally, the outright ticket on 2022 champion Sepp Straka had life on Sunday but the Austrian only went 1-under-par, drawing a T11 finish. He fell victim as many other favorites did to dry and fast conditions.

I’m here with a few more best bets to tail ahead of the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational for a bounce-back effort at Bay Hill. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly PGA Tour analysis.

Arnold Palmer Invitational: Best Bets

These plays are 1 unit and 0.50 units. Or 1% and 0.5% of your betting bankroll. Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Top 5 Finish

It’s chalky but Scottie Scheffler has been consistently dominant at Bay Hill in recent years. He’s the odds-on betting favorite to earn his third title at the Arnold Palmer Invitational since 2022, which is why he currently has the shortest odds to post a top 5 finish at -125.

Scheffler has looked solid in most rounds since returning to the PGA Tour after a delay due to a hand injury. This includes a T3 during his last event at The Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines South.

Ranked third in total strokes gained, including seventh on approach, 24th in proximity, and 12th scrambling, Scheffler’s 14th-ranked putting average is enough for me to recommend a two-unit wager on a top 5 finish at -125 odds.

Pick: Scottie Scheffler (-125)

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Top 30 Finish

I’m going to back one of the PGA Tour’s best ball-strikers, Aaron Rai, to record a top 30 finish at Bay Hill this week. The Englishman was in contention during his last event during the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld but recorded back-to-back bogeys that cost him a golden opportunity.

Ranked 34th SG: Approach, sixth in driving accuracy, and finding over 72.8 percent of greens in regulation (30th), Rai’s worth a one-unit wager to record his third top 30 finish of the 2025 PGA Tour season at even odds.

Pick: Aaron Rai (+100)

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Outright Winner

We haven’t seen Patrick Cantlay record an outright win since the 2022 BMW Championship but he’s in good form heading into Bay Hill. The Californian has two top-five finishes in four events this season, including his last outing at The Genesis Invitational.

Cantlay has played fairly well at Bay Hill, drawing a T36 finish in 2024 and a T4 finish in 2023. Ranked 12th in total strokes gained, including 30th putting, second for greens in regulation (76.3%), 30th in proximity, second in par 4 scoring, and second in birdie average, Cantlay has enough talent to end his three-year winning drought in the Sunshine State this week.

Let’s bet a quarter unit (0.25) on Cantlay in the outright winner market at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational to grab seven units of profit.

Pick: Patrick Cantlay (+2800)