2025 Farmers Insurance Open Golf Odds & Picks: Head-to-Head Matchups

Torrey Pines is the scenic site for the upcoming Farmers Insurance Open PGA Tour event in San Diego, California. Played across two different courses, Torrey Pines North and Torrey Pines South, golfers will play each course once before a 36-hole cut line is enforced. Those who qualify play the more difficult Torrey Pines South course on Friday and Saturday.

Players will tee off on Wednesday, a day earlier than normal, with an ideal forecast expected. Both courses are par 72s, with Torrey Pines South running 7,765 yards, compared to 7,258 yards on the Torrey Pines North course. Distance off-the-tee is key, while approach shots and scrambling are key to avoiding bogeys.

Last week, my two The American Express Head-to-Head Matchups went 1-1. Cameron Young had a tough outing throughout the week but in Round 1, he lost to Brian Harman by one stroke, resulting in a loss with the 18 Hole Matchbet prop as a -125 favorite. Then, we bounced back with Sam Burns finishing with a better 72-hole score than Tony Finau. Burns logged a T29 finish at -14, while Finau missed the cut at 7-under-par.

I’m back with two head-to-head matchup prop bets, each worth a one-unit wager, ahead of Wednesday’s opening round at the Farmers Insurance Open. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly analysis.

2025 Farmers Insurance Open Odds & Picks

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

18 Hole Matchbet (Round 1) – Keegan Bradley vs. Maverick McNealy

We’ve got a quality matchup in Round 1 between Keegan Bradley and Maverick McNealy. Bradley has had an excellent start to 2025, going T15 at Kapalua and T6 at Waialae. Bradley and McNealy are both well-rested after not playing at The American Express this past week.

Last year, McNealy got off to a hot start at Torrey Pines, going 5-under-par in Round 1, compared to Bradley’s +1 start. Ironically, the two only finished the event one stroke apart.

McNealy’s in great form right now, ranked 22nd in birdie average, 22nd on approach shots 200 yards or longer, and 32nd in SG: Off-the-Tee. Bradley ranks 52nd SG: Off-the-Tee, 97th in driving distance, and 80th in driving accuracy. While he’s a quality scrambler and good with hole proximity, I like McNealy’s skillset off-the-tee more in this situation.

McNealy has scored even or lower than Bradley in both events that they’ve played in Round 1 this season, so at even odds, let’s bet a unit on the underdog in this Round 1 18 hole Matchbet prop.

Pick: Maverick McNealy (+100)

72 Hole Matchbet Jason Day vs. Tony Finau

We’ll wrap up with a 72 hole matchbet prop between two PGA Tour veterans, Jason Day against Tony Finau. Day is coming off of a strong T3 finish at The American Express, while Finau’s 74 in the third round sent him home a day early, missing the cut after a T15 finish at Kapalua in early January.

Finau’s a marginal favorite to beat Day at Torrey Pines this week, where he’s recorded nine top 25 finishes in 10 appearances, including six top-ten finishes. Day missed the cut at Torrey Pines in 2024 but has two outright wins at this event in 2015 and 2018, along with seven top 10 finishes.

Day ranks 26th SG: Approach, fifth for green in regulation rate, and eighth in par 4 scoring average. Day’s driver distance is suboptimal but he’s 62nd in driving accuracy and sharp with his irons and scrambling. Finau is currently less accurate with his driver and is converting greens in regulation at a lower rate than Day.

Neither of these golfers are equipped with a good, consistent putting ability, so I’m going to side with Day due to ranking better with his driver and irons. Yes, Finau went -10-under-par for a T6 finish at the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open, while Day missed the cut, but I’m willing to bet a unit on the Aussie at even odds. Day will get off to a better start and trust his current form to wind up delivering a lower scorecard than Finau’s by Saturday night.

Pick: Jason Day (+100)

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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.