2025 Farmers Insurance Open Longshot Odds, Picks, & Predictions

The PGA Tour stays in southern California for the annual Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines this week. Round 1 tees off a day earlier than normal, getting underway on Wednesday, so make sure to place these bets prior to tomorrow’s tee times.

Neither of my American Express Longshot picks had a legitimate shot to win The American Express this past weekend. Christian Bezuidenhout (+8000) was a popular pick after his runner-up finish in 2024, only logged one round under 71, missing the cut. Lee Hodges, my other 80-1 longshot bet, made the 54-hole cut but wound up with a mediocre T34 finish at 13-under-par.

I’m back with two more longshot prospects to target in the PGA Tour outright winner betting market ahead of Round 1 teeing off from Torrey Pines at the Farmers Insurance Open on Wednesday. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly analysis.

2025 Farmers Insurance Open: Best Longshot Bets

These plays are .25u, or 0.25% of your betting bankroll. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Doug Ghim (+8000)

Doug Ghim is my first longshot pick at 80-1 ahead of Round 1 at the Farmers Insurance Open. Ghim played well at this event a year ago, recording a T13 finish at -8-under-par, despite a blow-up +3 in Round 3.

Ghim logged 2-under-par or lower in the other three rounds, while he finished with an impressive 6-under-par outing in Round 4. The 28-year-old American ranks 44th in total driving, 52nd in driving accuracy, and 41st in putts per round. I’m placing a lot of value on off-the-tee skillset at Torrey Pines this week, particularly with its lengthy, narrow fairways.

Let’s place a 0.25 unit wager on Ghim at 80-1 to seize 20 units of profit if he gets hot and climbs into contention for his first PGA Tour victory since turning pro in 2018.

Henrik Norlander (+17000)

Prior to missing the cut in back-to-back appearances at Torrey Pines in 2022 and 2023, Henrik Norlander logged a runner-up finish at -9-under-par back in 2021. The 37-year-old Swede has a T37 at the Sony Open but missed the cut at The American Express, which is why he’s available at such long odds in the outright winner betting market.

Norlander ranks second in total driving, including 20th in driving distance, 17th in driving accuracy, and 48th for greens in regulation rate. He’s also 36th in scrambling and 66th in SG: Putting.

At 170-1, it’s way too tempting to pass up on Norlander ahead of his return to Torrey Pines. He didn’t compete at the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open but this could be the spot where Norlander finally notches his first PGA Tour win. Let’s stake one more quarter unit on Norlander to win the 2025 Farmers Insurance Open at +17000 for a whopping 42.5 units.

BettingPros Podcast

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.