2025 Goodyear 400: NASCAR at Darlington Odds, Picks & Predictions
I imagine letting down your race team feels a lot like I did as I turned the TV off following last week’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Martinsville. My handicapping was generic and unit allocation sloppy at best. I completely missed the mark readers and listeners, getting a singular ticket to the window all weekend.
I took my biggest hit ever in a weekend as a sports gambler. Sure, Saturday’s Xfinity Series race was mayhem and borderline embarrassing, but excuses only get you so far. Therefore, nobody would blame you if you wanted to fade my picks this week.
As for me, I’m going to get back on the horse as NASCAR heads to arguably my favorite track on the circuit - Darlington Speedway. The 1.366-mile high-tire-wear, skill intermediate track is one of the most unique in the sport’s history, largely because of its oblique egg shape that was built to preserve a minnow pond on the track’s western end.
“The Track Too Tough to Tame” has become the true test of racecraft, where only elite drivers who can manage their tires will win at the top level.
With a good blend of juiced lines and longshots, I’m cautiously optimistic we could be in store for a bounceback. Here are my best bets for the 2025 Goodyear 400 and full card for another weekend of NASCAR racing down south.
2025 Goodyear 400: NASCAR at Darlington Odds, Picks & Predictions
Outright: Chris Buescher (+3000 via BetRivers) | .5u
Odds of 30-1 are just too long for Chris Buescher, who was a late-race scuffle with Tyler Reddick away from winning this race last year. A P6 finish in the fall would’ve also made for four straight Darlington T10s for the Texas native. Alas, he returns to “The Lady in Black” with the 13th-best odds to win this weekend. Buescher originally opened at 30-1 to win but has been bet down to 28-1 and to as low as 25-1 at some shops. Still, I think there’s value there at those odds.
Buescher is projected seventh in the IBT Betting Model and has been top five in Ifantasyrace.com‘s total speed rankings in two of the last three Darlington races. In addition, he finished P6 at our closest comp track of Homestead two weeks ago with the 11th-best average position (11.6), running 83.9% of the laps inside the top 10.
While these aren’t overwhelming metrics by any means, they’re consistent and have only been improving. I’ll get more stokes in the fire after practice and qualifying, but Buescher represents the best value pre-flop in the outright market.
Winning Car Number: Odd (-160 via Caesars) | 4u
The one thing that six of the top seven drivers in the projections have in common is that they’re an odd number. That includes tire-saving ace Denny Hamlin, fresh off a win at Marinsville, and high-line ringers Tyler Reddick and Kyle Larson, who both rank inside the top four.
This bet also gives you Bubba Wallace, who is fourth in Darlington Next=Gen average finish (11.8), tied with his 23XI Racing teammate Reddick and team owner Hamlin. Chase Briscoe, now in the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) Toyota, won the fall Darlington race and is one spot above Bueshcer in the projections for sixth.
I would be surprised if one of these drivers didn’t win, but if not, you’re also covered with:
- No. 1 Ross Chastain: Sixth in Darlington Next-Gen total speed rankings
- No. 9 Chase Elliott: Eighth in Darlington Next-Gen average finishes (12.5)
- No. 21 Josh Berry: Finished third in this race last year
- No. 43 Erik Jones: Two-time Darlington winner
The only even-numbered cars I envision being a potential threat to win are William Byron’s No. 24, Joey Logano’s No. 22 and Brad Keselowski’s No. 6. Given Logano’s and Keselowski’s inconsistencies this season and Byron finishing P12 at Homestead two weeks ago, I’m willing to drink the juice at -160 to fade them and all even-numbered cars.
23XI Racing (-125 via Caesars) vs. Team Penske | 2u
As noted in my winning car number bet, there’s a lot to like about 23XI Racing this weekend. In addition to the team’s recent success at Darlington, they’re running hot as a whole, with Reddick sitting P7 in the points and Wallace right behind him in P8, coming off back-to-back T3s.
Between dead batteries, blown engines and trouble on pit road, Team Penske has largely been a disaster over the past month. Ryan Blaney has shown speed lately but hasn’t got the finishes, similar to his 2024 Darlington runs that resulted in P36 and P37 finishes. He ranks 20th in the projections, one spot above teammate Austin Cindric. Logano does have a Next-Gen win here but also has an average finish of 14.8 since 2023.
23XI Racing is 2-0 against Team Penske H2H at our last two Homestead races, including two weeks ago. They’re also 3-1 against them at Darlington since Tyler Reddick joined the fold. I’ll happily take them to do it again at approachable -125 odds.
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
Chris Buescher Top Ford (+700 via DraftKings) | .5u
Brad Keselowski Top Ford (+700 via DraftKings) | .5u
Cole Custer T10 (+1400 via FanDuel) | .3u
Sport Clips Haircuts VFW Help A Hero 200 (Xfinity Series) Bets:
Justin Allgaier Outright (+650 via FanDuel) | .2u
Justin Allgaier (-125 via DraftKings) vs. Sam Mayer | 3.5u
Japanese Grand Prix (Formula 1) Bets:
Max Verstappen T3 (+100 via ESPN BET) | 1.5u
Seth Woolcock is a five-time FSWA-nominated writer and host at BettingPros/FantasyPros. He is also the founder and content director for In-Between Media. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and check out his award-nominated NASCAR betting show, “The Backroad.”