2025 Jack Link’s 500: NASCAR at Talladega Odds, Picks & Predictions
There’s NASCAR betting, and then there’s NASCAR betting on superspeedways. It’s almost like two different disciplines - algebra compared to geometry - and a real reason why many of the sport’s top handicappers and bettors take these weeks off completely.
For me, though? The show must go on.
However, I do take precautions in the case all hell breaks loose (which it usually does at drafting tracks), such as scaling back my unit allocation by at least 50% from most weeks and taking more of a shotgun approach. I’ll play a few outrights, take a longshot placement prop or two, but mostly rely on T20 and Laps Led markets to make my money.
With that in mind, here are my best bets for the 2025 Jack Link’s 500 and full card for a weekend of NASCAR racing at Talladega.
2025 Jack Link’s 500: NASCAR at Talladega Odds, Picks & Predictions
Outright: Austin Cindric (+1600 via DraftKings) | .5u
Until proven otherwise, I’m just going to keep betting Austin Cindric at superspeedways. He is ranked No. 1 in the IBT Betting Model Projections, and not because his Talladega stats are anything to write home about. It’s because he truly is the best drafting track driver in the Next-Gen car. The 26-year-old was not only No. 1 in average running position in this year’s Daytona 500 (5.7), but also at Atlanta (5.0), the only drafting races run this season.
At ‘Dega last year, Cindric was also one of the drivers controlling both races, ranking No. 2 in average running position last spring (10.9) and No. 1 in the fall (6.1) before he was the start of the biggest wreck in NASCAR Cup Series history.
There’s little doubt the No. 2 car will be out front come Sunday. The only question is whether or not he can get the finish he deserves.
Over 3.5 Laps Led: Kyle Busch (-115 via Caesars) | 2u
Right up there with Cindric for the top superspeedway racer in the series is Richard Childress Racing’s (RCR) Kyle Busch.
“Rowdy” comes in ranked third in my projections and did one thing across all drafting tracks last season: led laps. In fact, he led at least four laps and went over this line in all six races across Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta in 2024. As far as this year goes, Busch led 13 laps at Atlanta and had a top-10 average running position in the Daytona 500 (14.5) but was ultimately wrecked out.
At ‘Dega specifically, the 23-year Cup Series veteran has led an average of 3.7 laps per race in the six Next-Gen era races here, with a low of two laps led. Given a clean start to the race, he should be on his way to at least four laps led again on Sunday.
Top Toyota: Erik Jones (+1200 via DraftKings) | .3u
When looking for longshots, there may be no better market to speculate in than Top Toyota, given that the manufacturer only has nine cars in it. While it’s been a disappointing last 15 months for Legacy Motorsports since coming over to Toyota, the Jimmie Johnson-owned team has shown speed on drafting tracks, with at least one car finishing T10 in three straight races dating back to fall 2024 Talladega.
Erik Jones thought he won one of this year’s Daytona Duels before the officials overturned his win due to a caution flag. “That Jones Boy” has also finished P6 or better in four of six Next-Gen Talladega races, giving him the fourth-best average finish in that span (14.0). Therefore, 12-1 is a generous number for him to lead the manufacturer to the checkered flag this time.
Top Toyota: John Hunter Nemechek (+2000 via DraftKings) | .3u
As for Jones’ Legacy teammate John Hunter Nemechek, he’s finished T10 in both the Daytona 500 and Atlanta race this spring. He also has a 50% career T10 rate at Talladega in the Cup Series, although both of his top finishes occurred before the Next-Gen era. Either way, having low-cost, big-payout dart throws on both the Legacy cars is one of my favorite plays of the weekend.
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card:
William Byron Outright (+1600 via FanDuel) | .5u
Toyota To Win (+370 via FanDuel) | .5u
Ag-Pro 300 (Xfinity Series) Bets:
Jesse Love Outright (+700 via FanDuel) | .6u
Jesse Love Top 5 (-105 via Caesars) | 2u
Seth Woolcock is a five-time FSWA-nominated writer and host at BettingPros/FantasyPros. He is also the founder and content director for In-Between Media. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and check out his award-nominated NASCAR betting show, “The Backroad.”