2025 Kentucky Derby: Best Exotic Bets for the 151st Run for the Roses
The casual observer will know the Kentucky Derby to be that horse race where people like to wear some funny-looking hats. Race fans and gamblers will know it as the first leg of the prestigious Triple Crown - and it's this weekend.
The Kentucky Derby is considered the most exciting two minutes in sports. If you have some skin in the game, they can become the most exhilarating two minutes in sports. Recent winners have had somewhat long odds - 18-1, 15-1 and 80-1 - over the last three years. You can do straight bets if you want to, and put money on a single horse to win. Or you can walk a step or two on the wild side with an exotic bet.
How to Bet on the 2025 Kentucky Derby>>
Kentucky Derby: What is an Exotic Bet?
A straight bet is simply putting money down on one horse in a race. An exotic bet is essentially a parlay where you are putting money on more than one horse and maybe even multiple races. Like parlays, your chances of winning are low, but if you do...
Let's just say your friends will be expecting you to at least buy the first round, Mr./Mrs./Ms. Moneybags.
In the interest of not confusing you or myself, let's stick to these three types of exotic bets:
- Exacta: Bet on who will come in first and second.
- Trifecta: Bet on who will come in first, second and third.
- Superfecta: Bet on who will come in first, second, third and fourth.
Before going further, I must point out one thing: You will not necessarily know how much you may win when you place your bet. Winnings are determined by a pari-mutuel system, where all winning tickets share a prize.
But just to give you an idea of the potential for your payout, I'll include the approximate payout for a $1 bet according to FanDuel Sportsbook. Below are my favorite exotic bets for the Kentucky Derby this weekend (Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook).
Kentucky Derby: Exacta
Let's start with something nice and easy, not to mention a combination many novices will likely go with (post position in brackets).
- To come in First: (8) Journalism
- To come in Second: (18) Sovereignty
Why pick these two? No other reason than they have the best odds to win the Kentucky Derby: Journalism (3-1 odds to win) and Sovereignty (5-1 odds to win). If you believe that the two horses with the shortest odds are the best and most likely to win, then you have to go with the one with the shortest odds to win and the second shortest.
A $2 bet would result in an approximate payout of $66.56.
Kentucky Derby: Trifecta
- To come in First: (8) Journalism
- To come in Second: (17) Sandman
- To come in Third: (18) Sovereignty
Journalism is more than just a horse with a great name. He's undefeated in five career races (4-0-1) and is on a four-race win streak. Fast and consistent, he drew a favorable starting position in No. 8. The No. 8 post has produced nine winners, the second-most all time.
Journalism is the favorite among many experts, and I can see no reason not to jump on that bandwagon. I've picked Sandman (6-1 odds to win) to finish second because of his reputation for having excellent tactical speed and superb stamina. Every expert I've read refers to his stamina as well. Sounds like a horse that has the speed to push Journalism and will not fade down the final stretch.
After reading an article that had five out of seven Kentucky Derby experts pick Sovereignty to finish second, I was going to put him there. But I don't want to just add a third horse to my exacta for my trifecta. What if the exacta loses? I'll lose my trifecta no matter who finishes in third. However, with his track record and closing ability, I can see him making this dramatic charge down the final stretch and pulling into third at the last moment.
Kentucky Derby: Superfecta
Just in case I am way off base with my exacta and trifecta, I'm going to resist reusing any of the same horses for my superfecta bet.
- To Finish First: (4) Rodriguez
- To Finish Second: (9) Burnham Square
- To Finish Third: (5) American Promise
- To Finish Fourth: (8) Journalism
Rodriguez (12-1 odds to win) is one of two horses in the field from legendary trainer Bob Baffert, who is making his return from a three-year ban. Rodriguez is the son of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic and is known for his speed and stamina. Burnham Square (12-1 odds to win) is described as a horse with a unique blend of speed, stamina and soul. In six career races, he has three first-place finishes, a second-place finish and a third-place finish, while failing to place in the other race.
Burnham Square will benefit from having Brian Hernandez Jr. riding him. Hernandez rode last year's winner (Mystik Dan).
As for American Promise (30-1 odds to win), he's starting in the No. 5 position. Former winners have started from this position more than any other. I went with Journalism to finish fourth, even though I said I wasn’t going to reuse any horses. But a horse picked to win by so many people is bound to do well and at least be among the first to finish.