2025 Kentucky Derby: Odds, Trends & Best Bets

by Luke Monaldo |
Apr 30, 2025

The first Saturday in May is just days away, and with it the 151st Kentucky Derby. The Run for the Roses will start at approximately 6:57 pm ET on Saturday, May 3, at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Let’s get into the Derby odds, trends, and best bets.

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2025 Kentucky Derby Trends & Best Bets

Winning Trends by Post Position Since 1930

1 – Citizen Bull (20-1) – (Post 1 winners – 8, Most Recent – Ferdinand, 1986)

2 – Neoequos (30-1) – (Post 2 winners – 7, Most Recent – Affirmed, 1978)

3 – Final Gambit (30-1) – (Post 3 winners – 6, Most Recent – Mystik Dan, 2024)

4 – Rodriguez (12-1) – (Post 4 winners – 5, Most Recent – Super Saver, 2010)

5 – American Promise (30-1) – (Post 5 winners – 10, Most Recent – Always Dreaming, 2017)

6 – Admire Daytona (30-1) – (Post 6 winners – 2, Most Recent – Sea Hero, 1993)

7 – Luxor Cafe (15-1) – (Post 7 winners – 8, Most Recent – Mandaloun, 2021)

8 – Journalism (3-1) – (Post 8 winners – 9, Most Recent – Mage, 2023)

9 – Burnham Square (12-1) – (Post 9 winners – 4, Most Recent – Riva Ridge, 1972)

10 – Grande (20-1) – (Post 10 winners – 9, Most Recent – Giacomo, 2005)

11 – Flying Mohawk (30-1) – (Post 11 winners – 2, Most Recent – Winning Colors, 1988)

12 – East Avenue (20-1) – (Post 12 winners – 3, Most Recent – Canonero II, 1971)

13 – Publisher (20-1) – (Post 13 winners – 4, Most Recent – Nyquist, 2016)

14 – Tiztastic (20-1) – (Post 14 winners – 2, Most Recent – Carry Back, 1961)

15 – Render Judgement (30-1) – (Post 15 winners – 6, Most Recent – Authentic, 2020)

16 – Coal Battle (30-1) – (Post 16 winners – 4, Most Recent – Animal Kingdom, 2011)

17 – Sandman (6-1) – (Post 17 winners – 0)

18 – Sovereignty (5-1) – (Post 18 winners – 2, Most Recent – Country House, 2019)

19 – Chunk of Gold (30-1) – (Post 19 winners – 1, Most Recent – I’ll Have Another, 2012)

20 – Owen Almighty (30-1) – (Post 20 winners – 2, Most Recent – Rich Strike, 2022)

Trend-Based Bad Bets

There are no bad horses, only bad bets, so we will use the phrase “Trend-Based Bad Bets” for the following entrants. These are horses that statistically and historically face factors that are poor bets to win on Derby Day. Anything is possible in horse racing, but I am a process-driven bettor, and these bets are the antithesis of process-driven.

Nippon ‘Em in the Bud – While I do believe it is only a matter of time before a Japanese-bred horse wins the Derby, this is not going to be the year. Admire Daytona won one of the weakest UAE Derbys in recent years and finished fourth behind Luxor Cafe in their most recent head-to-head, and as such, is not a threat to buck these dual negative trends of being Japanese bred AND having earned their entry through their aforementioned victory in the UAE Derby. Admire Daytona also finished a distant 4th to fellow international Derby entrant, Luxor Cafe, prior to that UAE Derby title.

Just a Maiden, You Know How I Be

Only three horses have ever won their first race at the Kentucky Derby, and no maiden has won since Brokers Tip (1933) nearly a century ago. The other two were Buchanan (1884), the first to do so, and Sir Barton (1919), who happened to be the very first Triple Crown winner. Publisher remains a winless 0-for-7 in his career, and with this field, it’s unlikely he becomes the 4th and first in 92 years. However, that 0-7 paints a different picture when present like this. 7: 0-2-3-1. In seven career races, Publisher has hit the board six times. Steve Asmussen has reported that his 3-year-old has trained well since his strong Arkansas Derby showing. If his breezes are any indication, Publisher could improve enough to at least make some noise at Churchill Downs, if not give his trainer his elusive first Derby win. Still, not a good process-driven bet to win outright, but I will include him in exotics because he has a nose for the board.

My Old Kentucky Home

Final Gambit has yet to race outside of the state of Kentucky. Only two horses have been documented to have only run races in Kentucky prior to winning the Derby, but both were over a century ago. The first was Buchanan (1884), and the most recent and only other was Donerail, famous for winning with the longest odds in Derby history at 91-1. Final Gambit is a cool Derby story with all of his Kentucky connections, and he will be in my exotics, but bucking a trend like this and winning the Derby has only happened twice in 150 years. Not ideal for wins, but he could easily hit the board with a perfect trip.

Winning Trends

Who’s Your Daddy?

Pedigree matters, especially in recent years, as 13 of the previous 16 Kentucky Derby champions have been sired by stallions that won at least one Grade 1 race of 1 1/16 miles or farther. In past years, this has narrowed the entrants down more, but this year’s field, like last year’s comes from very successful sires with around 3/4 of the field fitting this criterion, so we’re going to have to look elsewhere, as this once again decreases the relevance of this historically accurate metric.

Fits: Citizen Bull, Rodriguez, American Promise, Luxor Cafe, Journalism, Burnham Square, Grande, East Avenue, Publisher, Tiztastic, Render Judgement, Sandman, Sovereignty, Chunk of Gold, Owen Almighty

What Have You Done For Me Lately?

Furthermore, historically, of the previous 69 Kentucky Derby champions, only two have won after extended layoffs of six weeks or more. Those two horses were Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Authentic in 2020. In fact, each of the last 12 winners’ final preps was within 7 weeks of the Derby. The lone 7-week layoff belongs to Authentic, whose 2020 layoff has the asterisk of being impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, where every horse’s prep schedule was askew thanks to the rescheduled late summer race. The traditional Kentucky Derby prep schedule was completely thrown off in 2020, so that makes one out of the last 68 “traditional” champs coming off layoffs of more than five weeks. Again, this does very little to pare down the remaining field and leaves us with 12 horses:

Knocks out: Final Gambit, Tiztastic, American Promise, Chunk of Gold

Galloping Ghosts

If aesthetics are your thing, this year’s Derby features three roans: Final Gambit and Sandman are obvious, but look closely and despite their dark features, Chunk of Gold is also technically classified as a grey roan. Only eight roans have won the Derby: Determine (1954), Decidedly (1962), Spectacular Bid (1979), Gato Del Sol (1982), Winning Colors (1988), Silver Charm (1997), Giacomo (2005), and Essential Quality (2021). Half of those have come in the past 36 races, so while rare, there have been as many roan winners in the past 36 runnings (.111) as in the previous 114 (.035).

Winner, Winner Plus JUST a Little Extra

Since 1980, 29-of-41 horses have won their final prep race before the Derby. If you include the ultimately disqualified Maximum Security in 2019, 10 of the last 14 horses to cross the finish line first at the Kentucky Derby have entered the race coming off a victory in their final prep race. The following horses fit this final criterion.

Remaining Contenders’ Pedigrees

Citizen Bull (Into Mischief – No Joke, by Distorted Humor)

Journalism (Curlin – Mopotism, by Uncle Mo)

Burnham Square (Liam’s Map – Linda’s Music, by Scat Daddy)

Coal Battle (Coal Front – Wolfblade by Midshipman)

Sandman (Tapit – Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor)

Sovereignty (Into Mischief – Crowned, by Bernardini)

These six horses are the best bets, based of historical data to either win or hit the board on Saturday. We can apply more recent trends to these six contenders and whittle them down even further.

None of the last 13 winners and just one of the last 42 won the Wood Memorial in their final prep race. This all but knocks out Bob Baffert’s Rodriguez, despite his victory at Aqueduct last time out.
Seven of the last 13 champs had at least three previous victories. All of the remaining six horses fit this: Citizen Bull, Luxor Cafe, Journalism, Burnham Square, Coal Battle, and Sandman.
Ten of the last 14 winners had never raced at Churchill Downs prior to the Derby. Three of the remaining six fit this trend: Citizen Bull, Journalism, Coal Battle
Eleven of the last 13 to hit the winner’s circle drew posts either between 5-8 or 13-19, with eight of the last 14 winners starting 13 or wider. This stat is even more impressive when you factor in that Post 17 has never produced a winner in 44 tries, and Post 15 hasn’t won since Carry Back in 1961, a full 64 years ago.

Final Thoughts

Journalism is the cream of this crop, but anything can happen on Derby Day. The recent trend of winners coming from the wider side of things shows avoiding the jostling inside for the early lead, a good trip from the outside can more than make up the ground saved on the inside. This trend means the Curse of Post 17 could end sooner rather than later. Sandman is as much of a contender as any other to come out of the 17-hole, and if Journalism gets trapped inside and the speedy roan has the room to make their late kick, it could be Enter Sandman! Bill Mott has never made a habit of bringing horses to the gate that aren't 100% ready to race. I expect nothing less from Mott’s prized 3-year-old when Sovereignty takes off on Saturday. Luxor Cafe comes in with the baggage of two decades of horses coming from the Japanese circuit and has not raced American horses yet, but his isn’t the typical story from the Nippon path. He is the son of Triple Crown legend American Pharoah and was bred in Versailles, Kentucky, at Coolmore’s Ashford Stud. He may be making his US debut, but he is American-made and has Royal bloodlines. Publisher may be a maiden, but it’s not for a lack of effort as he has finished in the money in five of his seven starts and only failed to hit the board once.

Best Boxed Superfecta: Journalism – Sandman – Sovereignty – Luxor Cafe – Publisher (8-17-18-7-13)

2025 Kentucky Derby Horse Previews, Picks & Predictions

Check out our previews for every horse competing in the 2025 Kentucky Derby and our expert analysis on the best bets for this year's Run for the Roses.

Kentucky Derby Post Positions & Odds

Post Position	Horse	Trainer Name	Jockey Name	Odds
1	Citizen Bull	Bob Baffert	Martin Garcia	20-1
2	Neoequos	Saffie Joseph Jr.	Flavien Prat	30-1
3	Final Gambit	Brad Cox	Luan Machado	30-1
4	Rodriguez	Bob Baffert	Mike Smith	12-1
5	American Promise	D. Wayne Lukas	Nick Juarez	30-1
6	Admire Daytona (JPN)	Yukihioro Kato	Christophe Lemaire	30-1
7	Luxor Cafe	Noriyuki Hori	Joao Moreira	15-1
8	Journalism	Michael McCarthy	Umberto Rispoli	3-1
9	Burnham Square	Ian Wilkes	Brian Hernandez Jr.	12-1
10	Grande	Todd Pletcher	John Velazquez	20-1
11	Flying Mohawk	Whit Beckman	Joe Ramos	30-1
12	East Avenue	Brendan P. Walsh	Manny Franco	20-1
13	Publisher	Steve Asmussen	Irad Ortiz Jr.	20-1
14	Tiztastic	Steve Asmussen	Joel Rosario	20-1
15	Render Judgement	Chad Brown	Irad Ortiz Jr.	30-1
16	Coal Battle	Kenny McPeek	Julien Leparoux	30-1
17	Sandman	Mark Casse	Jose Ortiz	6-1
18	Sovereignty	Lonnie Briley	Juan Vargas	5-1
19	Chunk of Gold	Ethan West	Jareth Loveberry	30-1
20	Owen Almighty	Brian Lynch	Javier Castellano	30-1
ALT*	Baeza	John Sherriffs	Flavien Prat*	XX-1

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