2025 Kentucky Derby Predictions: Longshot Bets & Sleeper Picks
The Kentucky Derby is just days away. Journalism, Sovereignty, Sandman and Grande are the race favorites, each with odds at 10-1 or better.
However, there are plenty of longshot opportunities in this race, as 13 of the 20 horses in the field have odds of 20-1 or worse. Could any of these horses pull off an improbable win and follow in the footsteps of last year's winner Mystik Dan (18-1)?
How to Bet on the 2025 Kentucky Derby>>
2025 Kentucky Derby: Best Longshot Bets, Picks & Predictions
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Final Gambit (30-1)
Trainer Brad H. Cox already has one Kentucky Derby victory under his belt, after Mandaloun won one of the most dramatic races ever thanks to a disqualification. While that was Cox's only win at the Derby, he has had three horses place in the top three at the Kentucky Derby since 2021. They were Mandaloun, Essential Quality and Angel Empire, the latter two of which finished third.
Final Gambit has won his last two races, including the 2025 Jeff Ruby Stakes (GIII), where he beat fellow Kentucky Derby competitor Flying Mohawk. In that race, Final Gambit didn't sit off the lead for long, as he pushed past the competition and used a strong finish to secure the win. This isn't the best horse in the race by any means, but Final Gambit is a horse that has won some big races. With a solid trainer at the helm, Final Gambit is a longshot worth watching.
Tiztastic (20-1)
Tiztastic opens the Kentucky Derby with 20-1 odds, and it will be interesting to see how far his odds drop on race day. Tiztastic has a great pedigree, as his sire is Tiz the Law, the winner of the 2020 Belmont Stakes. Tiz the Law also finished as the runner-up in that year's Kentucky Derby.
Tiztastic will be ridden by Joel Rosario. He is a jockey who has become a household name around this time of year, even if his only Kentucky Derby win came back in 2013.
As for the horse, Tiztastic won the 2025 Louisiana Derby (GII), holding off Chunk of Gold late. It was his first win since September of 2024. The race came one month after a fifth-place finish at the 2025 Rebel Stakes (GII). That race was won by Coal Battle, and it also featured Tiztastic’s second loss to Sandman. While that performance is sure to worry some, Tiztastic enters this race off a win, and he finished second to Sovereignty in October. Don't be surprised if this horse isn't a longshot come Saturday.
Coal Battle (30-1)
Coal Battle probably provides the best bang-for-your-buck of any of the longshots racing on Saturday. This is a horse that won the 2025 Rebel Stakes (GII), defeating Sandman, one of the Kentucky Derby favorites. However, because he finished third in the 2025 Arkansas Derby (GI), it seems that many are tossing this horse and looking elsewhere.
Understandably, bettors are concerned with Coal Battle's ability to race over a longer distance. After all, he won his last four races that were 1 1/16 miles or less, but struggled in the 1 1/8 mile race in Arkansas. But this is still a horse with five wins under his belt. Even when he ran poorly at the Arkansas Derby, he still finished third. Even if Coal Battle doesn't win, he's worth adding to exotics.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.