2025 March Madness Bracket Pool Strategy & Advice: Cinderella Guide
We love them when we see them coming; we hate them when we don't. But what exactly makes a Cinderella team? Fairy godmothers, helpful woodland creatures/mice and pumpkins turning into horse-drawn carriages are not involved. Cinderella is a term used to describe teams that are unknown commodities and lower-seeded teams (No. 9-16).
Expectations for them are super low, but they find a way to win against teams they have no business beating. Here’s our 2025 March Madness bracket pool strategy and advice for how to handle Cinderella teams.
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2025 March Madness Bracket Pool Strategy & Advice: Cinderella Guide
A Cinderella team has to make it past the first round, at least. A team is more likely to be dubbed a Cinderella squad if it's a seed that doesn't typically get past the first round, let alone make a deep run. From a historical perspective, that knocks the No. 9-12 seeds out of the conversation. It's not unusual for those seeds to win in the first round. That leaves us with the No. 13-16 seeds.
Let's take a look at the candidates.
No. 16 Seeds
- SIU Edwardsville
- Norfolk State
- St. Francis (PA)/Alabama State
- Mount St. Mary's/American University
Should one of these teams win, it would absolutely be in the mix to be this year's Cinderella. However, that's only happened twice in NCAA Tournament history. Don't count on it.
No. 15 Seeds
- Omaha
- Wofford
- Robert Morris
- Bryant
There have only been 11 No. 15 seeds that have managed to pull off an upset in the first round before. I'm having a hard time finding one that might have a shot this year. All four are underdogs by at least 17.5 points, and they will probably lose by at least 20.
No. 14 Seeds
Troy
Troy is a solid option that is among the better teams in the nation on the offensive boards (No. 11 in the country) and steals (No. 10). Their offense is nothing special, but they have one of the better defenses in the country (No. 25). Kentucky relies on outscoring opponents over playing defense, but that may not be too easy here.
UNC Wilmington
The Seahawks are a veteran squad that is not going to be intimidated by the moment, and it has the size to compete with anyone - especially a team like Texas Tech that lacks size. They'll score some points in the paint, but what may trip them up is whether they can force Texas Tech to slow down and play at their speed.
Lipscomb
Lipscomb will have their hands full in the first round against a solid Iowa State team, but the Cyclones have not been the same since losing Keshon Gilbert. Lipscomb is one of those rare teams that plays good offense and defense (ranked No. 51 in the nation in both). They'll have their work cut out for them, but if Iowa State brings anything less than its 'A' game, we may have an upset and the start of a potential Cinderella run here.
Montana
Wisconsin showed us in the Big Ten Final their weakness - their offense is not good (53 points, 22% shooting against Michigan). The Grizzlies do not play stellar defense, but since the Badgers have been struggling just to make shots, they may not matter. The trick will be getting their shooters on track and making shots before Wisconsin's offense can warm up.
All four No. 14 seeds could certainly pull off a first-round upset, but as far as winning in the second round and lasting long enough to be deemed a Cinderella team, I'm putting my money on Troy and UNC Wilmington.
No. 13 Seeds
High Point
There is a lot to like about the High Point Panthers. They will have all the confidence in the world, having won 14 games in a row. They have a high-powered, productive offense (82.2 points per game) to go with the attitude. If they get on track early, Purdue might not be able to keep up. I would say they match up pretty well with Clemson or McNeese State (potential second-round opponents) as well.
Yale
The Bulldogs may be in the best position to make a Cinderella run.
Texas A&M will be a tough one in the first round, but the Aggies have struggled with consistency of late, especially on offense. Yale shoots the three well and protects the ball well, while Texas A&M has had turnover issues. If they heat up from three-point range and get out to a decent-sized lead, the Aggies may not have enough offense to come back.
Should Yale advance, they could face UC San Diego in round two, which is a winnable game (they can beat Michigan, too).
Grand Canyon
The Lopes are a solid team, but Maryland is my dark horse pick to win the tournament. It will be a fun game to watch, but Grand Canyon is not making it past the first round.
Akron
Akron has a shot against Arizona because the game will likely turn into a track meet. If anything, take the over in this game. But I don't see a team with a solid offense and poor defense lasting long enough to become a Cinderella.