2025 NCAA Tournament Bracketology Predictions: 6.0 (Men’s College Basketball)
Another week gone and another week closer to Selection Sunday. The bracket committee unveiled its top 16 teams, which is a little bit of a spoiler, but gives us an eye into how the committee is judging teams.
If you're just joining us, welcome. You may have missed a lot, but don't worry. I'm here to catch you up. This article provides a holistic view of the NCAA Men’s College Basketball landscape and identifies value before the market moves.
With March Madness closing in, I'll be updating this article weekly with power rankings, what I've seen in the week and, of course, fake brackets. There's a lot to get into, so let's jump right into the main takeaways as we continue February play.
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2025 NCAA Men’s Tournament Bracketology Predictions
The Bracket Reveal
With the committee showing the tournament seed list from 1-16 overall, bracketologists are changing how the seeds fell. If you look at Bracket Matrix, Kansas has dropped to where it deserves to be, Kentucky has jumped up too much, Florida has taken over as the final No. 1 seed and other schools have fallen into place.
Historically, we have seen little movement from the reveal to tourney time, but with the SEC teams going toe-to-toe, there is still a lot of movement to be had. I had 15 of 16 teams in my top 16 aligned with the seed reveal and I don’t hate the addition of Michigan over Marquette. The fact Florida has the No. 1 seed over Tennessee, and how low Houston ranked, were a little surprising, however. Houston has quite the uphill battle if they are trying to get into the No. 1 seed territory.
An Early Look at Cinderella Teams
It's always fun to identify which Cinderella teams and giant killers lurk in the NCAA Tournament when the bracket is released. Now is the time to take a look at the mid-majors and project who might surprise come tourney time. These one-bid leagues will be whoever wins their respective conference tournament, but here are some of my early contenders.
UC San Diego
After finishing second in the Big West last season, UC San Diego thrives on their pick-and-roll heavy offensive system. The tandem of Hayden Gray and a much improved Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones provides steady playmaking, while sharpshooter Tyler McGhie, along with Gray gives them elite perimeter shooting.
The Tritons’ five-out offensive approach creates spacing problems for opponents, especially with versatile big man Nordin Kapic able to stretch the floor. They slow down opponents defensively. While size and depth may be an issue, this is the 40th-ranked KenPom team with a top-50 offense and defense. Between them and UC Irvine, one of these Big West teams will be a problem come tourney time.
Drake
After being projected to finish fifth in the conference preseason, Drake has succeeded under first-year coach Ben McCollum’s deliberate, halfcourt-focused system, which emphasizes efficient offense through patient pick-and-roll sets and rim attacks. The quartet of transfers who followed McCollum from Northwest Missouri State has helped establish his system, particularly through Mitch Mascari’s elite three-point shooting and Bennett Stirtz’s steady playmaking, both rarely leaving the floor.
Wyoming transfer Cam Manyawu provides a crucial interior presence with his rebounding and rim-running ability. However, their methodical pace and reliance on precise execution can make it difficult to overcome deficits, and the team still shows moments of adjustment to the higher level of Division I competition. Regardless, this squad is 62nd in KenPom with a 23-3 record. Between them and Bradley, one team will be a difficult out in March.
Liberty
Liberty presents a fascinating mix of their traditional disciplined approach with newfound athleticism and size. Their backcourt duo of Kaden Metheny and Colin Porter expertly runs coach Ritchie McKay’s system, though longer defenders can exploit Porter’s small frame.
The main thing to know about the Flames is they can shoot. With three different players shooting above 44% from deep, they can catch fire (see what I did there) and stick with any team. Boasting the top perimeter defense can help, too, holding opponents to 27% from deep. The team has the strength and athleticism to face bigger opponents and just might see some second weekend matchups come March.
The Bracket & Seeding
This is the second bracket to feature tenable matchups. What joy. I don't know about y'all, but I love the hypotheticals brackets provide us. With over a month of play left, there are still bound to be significant changes with some slumps and hot streaks on the horizon.
Some big winners and jumpers are Arizona and Texas A&M, partially due to their play and partially due to some re-analyzing. The Wildcats have been two completely different teams in the first half vs. the second half of the season. Regardless, here's what I imagine the bracket to be if March Madness started today.
The Seeding
No. 1 Seeds
- Auburn
- Duke
- Alabama
- Florida
No. 2 Seeds
- Tennessee
- Houston
- Purdue
- Wisconsin
No. 3 Seeds
- Kentucky
- Iowa State
- Texas A&M
- Texas Tech
No. 4 Seeds
- Marquette
- St. John's
- Arizona
- Michigan
No. 5 Seeds
- Mississippi State
- Ole Miss
- Kansas
- Michigan State
No. 6 Seeds
- Illinois
- Maryland
- Louisville
- Saint Mary's
No. 7 Seeds
- Memphis
- Missouri
- Oregon
- UCLA
No. 8 Seeds
- Clemson
- UConn
- Baylor
- Gonzaga
No. 9 Seeds
- Creighton
- Texas
- New Mexico
- West Virginia
No. 10 Seeds
- San Diego State
- Utah State
- Nebraska
- BYU
No. 11 Seeds
- VCU
- Arkansas
- Oklahoma*
- Wake Forest*
- Vanderbilt*
- Ohio State*
No. 12 Seeds
- Drake
- UC San Diego
- Yale
- Liberty
No. 13 Seeds
- McNeese State
- Arkansas State
- Chattanooga
- High Point
No. 14 Seeds
- Utah Valley
- Akron
- Lipscomb
- Northern Colorado
No. 15 Seeds
- Cleveland State
- Towson
- Bryant
- Norfolk State
No. 16 Seeds
- Central Connecticut State
- Quinnipiac
- Nebraska-Omaha*
- Southern*
- Morehead State*
- American*
*Play-in games
First Four Out
- Xavier
- Pittsburgh
- Georgia
- Boise State
Next Four Out
- San Francisco
- Cincinnati
- North Carolina
- SMU
The Bracket
Some teams may be moved around or in weird regions with the bracketing rules but here's your official look at an NCAA Tournament bracket.
South Region
- 1 Auburn vs. 16 Central Connecticut State/Quinnipiac (Play-in)
- 8 Clemson vs. 9 Creighton
- 5 Mississippi State vs. 12 Drake
- 4 Marquette vs. 13 McNeese State
- 6 Illinois vs. 11 VCU
- 3 Kentucky vs. 14 Utah Valley
- 7 Oregon vs. 10 San Diego State
- 2 Tennessee vs. 15 Cleveland State
West Region
- 1 Duke vs. 16 Nebraska-Omaha/Southern (Play-in)
- 8 UConn vs. 9 Texas
- 5 Michigan State vs. 12 UC San Diego
- 4 Arizona vs. 13 Arkansas State
- 6 Saint Mary's vs. 11 Arkansas
- 3 Iowa State vs. 14 Akron
- 7 UCLA vs. 10 Utah State
- 2 Houston vs. 15 Towson
East Region
- 1 Alabama vs. 16 Morehead State/American (Play-in)
- 8 Baylor vs. 9 New Mexico
- 5 Kansas vs. 12 Yale
- 4 St. John's vs. 13 Chattanooga
- 6 Maryland vs. 11 Oklahoma/Wake Forest (Play-in)
- 3 Texas A&M vs. 14 Lipscomb
- 7 Memphis vs. 10 Nebraska
- 2 Purdue vs. 15 Bryant
Midwest Region
- 1 Florida vs. 16. Nebraska-Omaha Southern (Play-in)
- 8 Gonzaga vs. 9. West Virginia
- 5 Ole Miss vs. 12. Liberty
- 4 Michigan vs. 13. High Point
- 6 Louisville vs. 11. Vanderbilt/Ohio State (Play-in)
- 3 Texas Tech vs. 14. Northern Colorado
- 7 Missouri vs. 10. BYU
- 2 Wisconsin vs. 15. Norfolk State
Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.