2025 NCAA Tournament Bracketology Predictions: 7.0 (Men’s College Basketball)

by Ryan Coleman |
Mar 04, 2025

Another week gone and another week closer to Selection Sunday. We are in March now and that means conference tournaments are starting up and the birds chirping hits different. If you're just joining us, welcome. You may have missed a lot, but don't worry. I'm here to catch you up.

This article provides a holistic view of the NCAA College basketball landscape and identifies some value before the market moves. With March Madness closing in, I'll update this article a couple of more times before we get to the brackets. There's a lot to get into, so let's jump right into takeaways before the final games leading into postseason play.

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2025 NCAA Men’s Tournament Bracketology Predictions

Auburn Locks Downs No. 1 Overall Seed

I'm not sure if this is particularly a bold claim, but after a win over Kentucky this weekend, you can go ahead and lock up Bruce Pearl's Auburn Tigers as the No. 1 overall seed. They're 27-2 and 16-2 in Quad I games with 12.5 Wins Above Bubble. Even if they lose out, they would still finish with the best Quad I record and resume in basketball.

It's been impressive to see how dominant this team is and their win over Kentucky - where Johni Broome only had nine points - epitomizes their talent and depth. I rarely trust the tournament favorite, but barring injury and a particularly difficult path, they are my title pick right now.

Mid-Major Highlights Again

In the last article, I discussed UC San Diego, Drake and Liberty as potential Cinderella candidates. The former two have been playing well enough to argue for an at-large spot and Liberty remains the Conference USA (CUSA) favorite despite their recent loss to Kennesaw State. Here are some other teams that will be double-digit seeds come tourney time you should know before the bracket drops.

VCU

Odds are you know VCU, but if you don't, get familiar with the Rams. After riding an eight-game winning streak, I currently project VCU as a No. 10 seed with their dominance in Atlantic 10 (A-10) play. Their near-proximity and mid-range defense is one of the best in the nation.

While they may not have the best pure shooters, VCU makes up for it with a high offensive rebounding percentage and forced turnovers. This team has seriously evolved as the season has progressed, ranking 20th on Bart Torvik since January 1st and 10th since February 1st.

During their eight-game winning streak, their closest win was by five on the road at Dayton, where they shot just 21% from the perimeter but forced 19 turnovers and converted their free throws en route to victory. This is a team buoyed by their defense that can make a run in March.

Santa Clara

During a down year in the West Coast Conference (WCC), I have to give shout-outs to a potential bid thief lurking in the depths of bubble talk. Since February 1st, Santa Clara ranks 15th nationally, per Bart Torvik, and that's not even including their decisive victory over Gonzaga in January.

This is a team that would make for a fun tournament underdog with their perimeter shooting and offensive rebounding capabilities. They will run with the ball and have shown their ability to keep up with better teams, beating TCU by 17 on a neutral court, McNeese in a true road game and splitting with Gonzaga. Elijah Mahi, Tyeree Bryan and Carlos Stewart all shoot above 40% from three-point land, and can do so in any game if they find their way into the tournament.

Grand Canyon

As the presumed champion out of the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) and likely a No. 12 or No. 13 seed, the Antelopes have the makings of a potential upset in the making. Will Warren notes that of their nine tournament comps, seven won their first-round games.

Grand Canyon forces a lot of turnovers, rebounds well and manufactures scoring by getting to the charity stripe at a high clip. They've competed in almost every game, hanging with Arizona State and Georgia away from home, and beating Stanford on a neutral court. Without Tyon Grant-Foster, they take a step back, but if he's healthy in the postseason, this team will be a tough out.

The Bubble of Big Names and Big Potential

Every year there's always the talk of "this year’s bubble is the best/worst/most difficult/biggest/smallest bubble we've ever seen." This year, I'm coining it simply as the Bubble of Big Names and Big Potential. Right now, a handful of teams with high preseason hopes and/or big-name brands sit squarely in bubble talks.

Gonzaga, Baylor, UNC, Indiana, Arkansas, Texas and Cincinnati were all ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 Men’s College Basketball Poll. Xavier was a consensus sleeper team, Oklahoma ran a train outside of the conference before being pummeled in the SEC and who knows what under-the-radar team might make a late-season run.

Even UConn - who received 11 first-place votes in the preseason poll - is flirting with double-digit seeding. They aren't on the bubble, so to speak, but if a handful of bid stealers take down their respective conference tournaments, you can easily see how it could get that way.

A lot of these teams have talented rosters and experienced coaches. I'm predicting at least one of them lives up to their preseason hype. And who says no to a UNC/Indiana play-in game?

The Bracket & Seeding

This is the third bracket to feature tenable matchups; what joy. I don't know about y'all, but I love the hypotheticals brackets provide us. With only a few weeks of play left, there is still time for seeding to change, but a lot more teams lock up their bids each day.

Some big winners of the week include Tennessee, BYU and St. John's. The Southeastern Conference (SEC) has gotten all the love this year but the latter two teams have been excellent in the last month of play and I am excited for the tournament. Regardless, here's what I imagine the bracket to be if March Madness started today.

The Seeding

No. 1 Seeds

Auburn
Duke
Alabama
Tennessee

No. 2 Seeds

Florida
Houston
St. John's
Michigan State

No. 3 Seeds

Wisconsin
Kentucky
Iowa State
Texas Tech

No. 4 Seeds

Michigan
Texas A&M
Arizona
Purdue

No. 5 Seeds

Missouri
Clemson
Maryland
Louisville

No. 6 Seeds

Oregon
St. Mary's
BYU
Marquette

No. 7 Seeds

UCLA
Mississippi State
Kansas
Memphis

No. 8 Seeds

Illinois
Ole Miss
Creighton
UConn

No. 9 Seeds

Gonzaga
Vanderbilt
New Mexico
Utah State

No. 10 Seeds

West Virginia
Baylor
San Diego State
VCU

No. 11 Seeds

Nebraska
Georgia
Boise State*
Indiana*
Oklahoma*
Ohio State*

No. 12 Seeds

Drake
UC San Diego
Yale
Liberty

No. 13 Seeds

McNeese State
High Point
Arkansas State
Lipscomb

No. 14 Seeds

Chattanooga
Akron
Utah Valley
UNC Wilmington

No. 15 Seeds

Northern Colorado
Milwaukee
Central Connecticut State
St. Thomas

No. 16 Seeds

Bryant
Norfolk State
Southeast Missouri State*
Southern*
American*
Quinnipiac*

*Play-in games

First Four Out

Xavier
Arkansas
Texas
UNC

Next Four Out

SMU
Wake Forest
Cincinnati
Villanova

The Bracket

Some teams may move around or be in weird regions with the bracketing rules, but here's an official look at how the bracket might play out.

South Region

1 Auburn vs. 16 American/Quinnipiac
8 Illinois vs. 9 Gonzaga
5 Missouri vs. 12 Drake
4 Purdue vs. 13 Lipscomb
6 Marquette vs. 11 Oklahoma/Ohio State
3 Texas Tech vs. 14 UNC Wilmington
7 Memphis vs. 10 Vanderbilt
2 St. John's vs. 15 Central Connecticut State

West Region

1 Alabama vs. 16 Southeast Missouri State/Southern
8 Utah State vs. 9 New Mexico
5 Clemson vs. 12 Liberty
4 Arizona vs. 13 Arkansas State
6 St. Mary's vs. 11 Nebraska
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Utah Valley
7 Kansas vs. 10 San Diego State
2 Michigan State vs. 15 Milwaukee

East Region

1 Duke vs. 16 Norfolk State
8 Ole Miss vs. 9 Creighton
5 Maryland vs. 12 UC San Diego
4 Texas A&M vs. 13 High Point
6 Oregon vs. 11 Georgia
3 Kentucky vs. 14 Akron
7 Mississippi State vs. 10 VCU
2 Houston vs. 15 Northern Colorado

Midwest Region

1 Tennessee vs. 16. Bryant
8 UConn vs. 9. Baylor
5 Louisville vs. 12. Yale
4 Michigan vs. 13. McNeese State
6 BYU vs. 11. Indiana/Boise State
3 Wisconsin vs. 14. Chattanooga
7 UCLA vs. 10. West Virginia
2 Florida vs. 15. St. Thomas

Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.

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