2025 NCAA Tournament Predictions: First No. 1 Seed to Lose
The best postseason tournament at any level of any sport is finally here, bringing along all the madness that comes with it. While this year features potentially the most dominant group of No. 1 seeds the NCAA Tournament has ever seen, as no other season in the KenPom database has had all four teams hold a NET Ranking of 35+, history tells us it's improbable we will see all four No. 1 seeds make a deep run in the tournament.
Only once in the tournament's history have all four No. 1 seeds made the Final 4. That was in 2008 when Kansas, Memphis, UCLA and North Carolina accomplished the feat. While each No. 1 seed this year certainly has the upside to win the National Championship - and it wouldn't be entirely shocking to see any (or all) of them advance to San Antonio - I am going to lay out the reasoning for why the Houston Cougars will be the No. 1 seed most likely to have the earliest exit from the Big Dance.
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Why Houston Will Be the First No. 1 Seed to Lose
Tough Schedule
For starters, it's very apparent Houston was given the most difficult early path of the bunch, with a potential Round of 32 matchup against Gonzaga, KenPom's ninth overall rated team with the nation's ninth overall rated offense. This is especially daunting considering Mark Few and the Bulldogs have advanced to nine consecutive Sweet 16 matchups, which ties an NCAA record.
While Auburn has a potentially challenging matchup against Louisville in Lexington in the second round, the Cardinals rank 14 spots lower than Gonzaga in KenPom and have notably less offensive firepower than the Bulldogs. The toughest potential matchups for Duke and Florida are Baylor and UConn, respectively, who both rank outside the top 50 in KenPom's defensive rating. Houston has the most concerning second-round matchup of the four No. 1 seeds, putting them at risk for an upset before they even reach the second weekend.
History Repeats Itself
Haven't we also seen this movie before from categorically dominant Kelvin Sampson-coached No. 1-seeded Houston teams? In the previous two seasons, the Cougars have finished the regular season as KenPom's second overall rated team and earned a No. 1 seed, seemingly on a collision course to meet up with UConn in the championship game. Both teams failed to advance past the Sweet 16, seeing their seasons end to No. 4 seed Miami and No. 5 seed Duke in consecutive seasons.
While a couple of Sampson's teams have made deeper runs in the tournament as lower seeds, I see a lot of parallels between this year's team and the 2023/2024 teams that got picked off well before they should have. Houston has the lowest offensive rating of the No. 1 seeds, making them more prone to getting stuck in the mud, relying on their defense and rebounding to win games. This style leads to closer margins in their tournament games, making them much more susceptible to upsets. They also lack the offensive upside to come back in games if their opponent starts to build a margin.
Lack of Top-Tier Talent
I'm also worried about the personnel for Houston compared to the other No. 1 seeds. While Duke, Auburn and Florida all have players included as semi-finalists for the Naismith Player of the Year award, Houston does not. They lack the top-end talent of these teams, and they're missing a clutch go-to option like Marcus Sasser and Jamal Shead previous iterations had. They are also dealing with a key injury to J'Wan Roberts, their leading rebounder and team leader who has been with Sampson since 2020.
While Roberts will likely give it a go in the tournament, any aggravation of that injury would be a massive loss for a Houston team reliant on his ability to help generate second chances via the offensive glass. I would not be surprised to see any of the overall No. 1 teams cut down the nets in April, and I would be thrilled to see another historic Final 4 filled with all the top seeds.
It’s just that Houston has the most potential to be upset early in the tournament due to their draw, their personnel and their offensive ceiling that has capped previous dominant Houston teams from making deep runs in the tournament. If you're looking for the No.1 seed to fade in your bracket or wagers throughout the tournament, the Cougars are that team.