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2025 NCAA Women’s Tournament Picks & Predictions (Saturday)

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The NCAA Women’s Tournament Regional 2 - Birmingham division has four games on Friday and four on Saturday. From those eight games, I've identified a few best bets for round one.

I'm not guaranteeing you these will win (my crystal ball isn't that good), but I am saying these are three intriguing matchups that every bettor should take a look at.

2025 NCAA Tournament March Madness Bracket Strategy & Betting Picks>>

Regional 2 – Birmingham Best Bets (Saturday)

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

No. 5 Alabama Crimson Tide (-13.5) vs. No. 12 Green Bay Phoenix (+680) | O/U 129.5

  • Date: Saturday, March 22
  • Time: 1:30 p.m. ET
  • Coverage: ESPN2

This game is going to be a battle of competing styles. Green Bay likes to slow the pace down (339th in the nation in possessions per 40 minutes), doesn't make a ton of mistakes (No. 7 in the country in turnovers, 11.4 per game) and Seldom commits fouls (also No. 7 in the nation, 12.6 per game).

The Phoenix are good at moving the ball around (No. 14 in assists, 17.7 per game), and seldom miss free throws (No. 12 in free throw percentage, 78.3%). They only average 68.4 points per game (No. 109), but that's plenty since they only allow 55.8 per game (No. 17). Does this style of play work? Well, they are taking a 22-game winning streak into this contest.

Alabama is more offense-oriented (No. 20 in scoring, 78.4 per game) but isn't bad at defense (No. 131, 62.7 per game) and prefers to play at a much quicker pace (59th in possessions per 40 minutes, 72.9).

Of course, the level of competition has to be taken into account. They played one Quad 1 and one Quad 2 team, losing both. But a 22-game winning streak gives you insane confidence. It can make you believe you can beat anyone. So the Phoenix will not be intimidated. I don't expect them to win, but I do expect them to give Alabama quite an upset scare.

Pick: Green Bay +13.5 (-108)

No. 4 Maryland Terrapins (-16.5) vs. No. 13 Norfolk State Spartans (+880) | O/U 145.5

  • Date: Saturday, March 22
  • Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
  • Coverage: ESPN

Maryland ended the regular season on a good note, winning their last four, including a 93-90 overtime win against No. 12 Ohio State. The loss to Michigan in the Big Ten tournament was disappointing (98-71), but the Terrapins know their No. 12-ranked offense (79.9 points per game) will be tough to beat.

However, teams may not have to worry about beating them if they can outscore Maryland's lackluster defense (No. 287, 69.3 points per game allowed).

But Norfolk State's offense (No. 49, 74.4 points per game) and defense (No. 20, 55.9 points per game allowed) are no joke. They are also one of the best shot-blocking teams in the country (No. 12, 5.4 per game) and rank fifth in steals (13.2). The Spartans haven't lost since falling to North Carolina 90-47 on December 21, 2024.

Maryland is a good team. I know they are. I don't think Norfolk State can win this game. I'm also keenly aware that part of the reason the Spartans look so good on paper is the level of competition they played all season (25-1 vs. Quad 4). Regardless of who they've played, Norfolk State is a good team. They may lose by more than 10 in this game, but they will not lose by more than 16.

Pick: Norfolk State +16.5 (-120)

No. 3 North Carolina Tar Heels (-20.5) vs. No. 14 Oregon State Beavers (+1800) | O/U 120.5

  • Date: Saturday, March 22
  • Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
  • Coverage: ESPNU

It's a minor miracle the Beavers are in the tournament. Had they not won their conference tournament they would not have been invited to the NCAA Tournament. They shouldn't have won that, but they beat three teams they lost to in the regular season to do it. Their defense is OK (No. 101, 61.3 points per game), but their defense is not (No. 223, 62.8 points per game).

Oregon State is a solid rebounding team and doesn't foul a lot, but that's pretty much all they have going for them. North Carolina is on a different level. It will be surprising if the Beavers can keep up for a half.

I'm taking an easy out here, but this region may be the least competitive of the four. A No. 3 seed has never lost in the Women's NCAA Tournament, and the Tar Heels will not be the first. I’m leaning toward the under as well. Oregon State will not let UNC go for much more than 70, but I’m not sure the Beavers will score 50.

Pick: North Carolina -20.5 (-110)

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