2025 Open Championship Odds, Picks & Predictions
Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland first hosted the Open Championship in 1951, when Englishman Max Faulkner won the Claret Jug. The Open didn't return to Royal Portrush until 2019, when Irishman Shane Lowry won by six shots in a rain-soaked runaway. Now, the Open is back at this wonderful course after a relatively brief six-year hiatus.
Sitting along Northern Ireland's northern coast, Royal Portrush is exposed to the elements, vulnerable to unpredictable squalls. The players at this week's 153rd Open Championship will undoubtedly have to deal with wind and rain.
In that regard, Royal Portrush is like a lot of other venues in the Open rota.
But Royal Portrush isn't a typical links course.
On most Open Championship courses, you can play bump-and-run shots into a lot of the greens and let the contours of the course feed the ball toward the hole. Royal Portrush, however, has a lot of elevated greens, so players will have to come in high with most of their approach shots. Hitting high shots into stiff winds off the ocean can be an adventure.
Most of the courses in Open Championship play have big greens and numerous bunkers. Royal Portrush has smallish greens and relatively few bunkers.
Off-target drives at Royal Portrush will be sternly punished, and players' scrambling ability will be tested.
Before we get to my favorite bets for this week's Open Championship, let's talk about some of the top players I'm pointedly not betting, and why.
- Rory McIlroy (+750): The world's second-best player trying to win a major in his native country? Sounds enticing! However, Rory often disappoints when expectations for him are at their highest. He missed the cut at Royal Portrush in 2019. I'm not feeling it with Rory this week.
- Bryson DeChambeau (+2000): I don't think Bryson's swashbuckling approach off the tee is going to work at Royal Portrush. There's just too much danger awaiting wayward drives.
- Tommy Fleetwood (+2800): His odds are short because he often contends in big events, and BECAUSE he finished second at Royal Portrush in 2019. Yet, poor Tommy just can't close out tournaments.
- Viktor Hovland (+3000): Hovland is a wonderful ballstriker, but scrambling is going to be critical this week, and chipping is Hovland's Achilles' heel.
- Justin Thomas (+5000): J.T. has been far too crooked off the tee this season to win at Royal Portrush.
Now that we have the unpleasantness out of the way, let's get to the players I'm backing this week.
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2025 Open Championship Odds, Picks & Predictions
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Scottie Scheffler Outright Winner (+450)
I'm not exactly going out on a limb by betting the No. 1 player in the world and tournament favorite. Still, Scottie's odds have been shorter than this in almost every tournament he's entered this season.
At +450, Scheffler's implied odds of winning are 18.2%. I think he's a value at that price.
Scheffler is long and straight off the tee. He's the best iron player in the world. He ranks second on tour in scrambling. And weather? Scottie has lived in Texas since he was 6 years old. He knows how to play in the wind.
Yeah, I’m betting Scottie and feeling good about it.
Robert MacIntyre Outright Winner (+3500)
Now firmly established as one of the top players in the world, MacIntyre ranks 36th in strokes gained off the tee, 27th in strokes gained on approach, and 22nd in strokes gained total.
MacIntyre is reasonably accurate off the tee, and as a native of Scotland, he's certainly no stranger to links golf. And speaking of Bobby Mac's Scottish heritage ...
There were high hopes that MacIntyre would contend at last week's Scottish Open. However, after finishing top 20 in four of his five previous events (including a solo second-place finish at the U.S. Open), MacIntyre laid an egg last week, finishing tied for 65th.
I'm leaning into the revenge narrative. MacIntyre should be dialed in at Royal Portrush
Russell Henley Outright Winner (+6500) and Top 10 (+400)
I'm really into Henley this week.
There's a strong correlation between success in the Open Championship and success at PGA National, the Florida course that hosts the Cognizant Classic (formerly the Honda Classic). Henley won that event in 2014, finished third in 2021, and has had some other strong finishes there.
Henley doesn't have a great track record at Open Championships, but he may have broken the ice last year with a fifth-place finish at Royal Troon.
Henley ranks 14th in driving accuracy, 15th in strokes gained on approach, and he's a rock-solid putter.
Tom Kim Outright Winner (150-1) and Top 20 (+330)
If you've seen Tom Kim play in the TGL — the simulator golf league co-founded by Tiger Woods — you know what a fiery competitor he is.
Kim has struggled this year, but links golf seems to bring out the best in him. He finished second in the Open Championship at Troon in 2023. He finished 17th at last week's Scottish Open.
When Kim is at his best, he's reasonably accurate off the tee and good around the greens. I think he's a compelling long shot.
Kristoffer Reitan Outright Winner (350-1) and Top 30 (+340)
Here's my favorite Open Championship what-the-heck dart throw.
Reitan won a DP World Tour event in late May. The young Norwegian has four top-five finishes and six top-15 finishes in his last nine DP World Tour events.
I don’t mind throwing a few bucks at a hot player going off at long odds.