2025 Open Championship Picks: Best Head-to-Head Bets (Round 3)

Scottie Scheffler shot a 64 during Round 2 at the Open Championship on Friday, securing a solo outright lead at 10-under-par heading into the weekend at Royal Portrush. The World No. 1 carded eight birdies and one bogey, while ranking first in SG: Putting and second in SG: Approach to wind up 7-under-par in Northern Ireland on Friday afternoon.

Matt Fitzpatrick and Brian Harman are other notable names atop the leaderboard through two rounds. Harman won the 2023 Open Championship as a massive underdog at Royal Liverpool Golf Club in England. Fitzpatrick also has a major title in his collection, winning the 2022 U.S. Open.

It was another profitable outing for my Round 2 head-to-head best bets. The favorites once again did their job, while my lone underdog, Justin Rose (-110), lost by one stroke to Harris English. Xander Schauffele (-130) beat Shane Lowry by three strokes and Aaron Rai (-120) shot two strokes lower than Maverick McNealy.

I’m going to continue mining this 18 hole matchups betting market for head-to-head bets in Round 3 at the Open Championship on Saturday. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly PGA Tour analysis.

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2025 Open Championship: Best Bets

These plays are 1 unit, or 1% of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Chris Gotterup vs. Harris English  – Round 3 (18 Hole Matchups)

Chris Gotterup and Harris English have both managed to climb into T5 on the leaderboard heading into “Moving Day” on Saturday at Royal Portrush. Gotterup upset Rory McIlroy in Scotland during the Genesis Scottish Open last week, drilling clutch approach shots and converting birdies with a reliable putter.

I faded English against Justin Rose in Round 2. He proved me wrong but didn’t play well, finishing 1-under-par on Friday, while ranked 137th SG: Off-the-Tee, 112th SG: Around-the-Green and 74th SG: Putting.

Gotterup shot a 65 (-6) in Round 2, including a pair of eagles, building momentum to surge into T5 by the end of the day. Through two rounds, the Scottish Open champion ranks 30th SG: Approach, sixth SG: Off-the-Tee and ninth SG: Putting.

Oddsmakers have set the line between Gotterup and English as a true pick’em at -110 odds. I’ll back the hot hand and play Gotterup at this price, especially since he’s stronger with his driver and putter.

Pick: Chris Gotterup (-110)

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Tyrrell Hatton vs. Robert MacIntyre  – Round 3 (18 Hole Matchups)

Oddsmakers are valuing Tyrrell Hatton as a sizable favorite against Robert MacIntyre in Round 3. I think there’s too much emphasis being placed on the Englishman, who didn’t perform as well in Round 2.

Hatton finished Friday’s round ranked 47th SG: Approach, 71st SG: Off-the-Tee and 118th SG: Around-the-Green. Conversely, MacIntyre’s second round saw the Scotsman go 5-under-par, thanks to ranking first in the field for SG: Off-the-Tee, 22nd SG: Approach and 10th SG: Around-the-Green.

Hatton currently holds a sizable edge with his flat stick, ranked 12th SG: Putting this week. MacIntyre sits 58th in this metric but he made a massive stride from Round 1 to Round 2, going from 71 to a 66, while Hatton regressed, shooting 68-69.

Let’s bet on MacIntyre and finally cash an underdog in this head-to-head matchup prop betting market during Round 3.

Pick: Robert MacIntyre (+100)

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Brian Harman vs. Rasmus Hojgaard  – Round 3 (18 Hole Matchups)

Honestly, Brian Harman and Rasmus Hojgaard are two names that weren’t anticipated to be in contention heading into the weekend at the 153rd Open Championship. It’s important to note that Harman’s dominant 2023 Open Championship win at Royal Liverpool saw the Georgia native come out of nowhere to cash +12500 odds as the outright winner of that major.

Harman’s looked very comfortable at Royal Portrush, especially in Round 2. He shot 6-under-par and went bogey-free to improve his position to T3 on the leaderboard, sitting only two strokes back from Scottie Scheffler.

He’s ranked fourth in total strokes gained this week, including eighth SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach, 15th SG: Around-the-Green and 37th SG: Putting. Simply put, Harman is on fire.

Hojgaard is a bomber off-the-tee but he’s been among the best in the field with his putter. The Denmark native struggled more with his driver in Round 2, ranked 139th in SG: Off-the-Tee. Harman is much more consistent with his accuracy and the undulations in the fairways allow him to gain more distance than on stateside courses.

While Hojgaard’s short game is very good, Harman’s tee-to-green efficiency is that much better. Bet on Harman as a -130 favorite to score lower than Hojgaard on Saturday afternoon.

Pick: Brian Harman (-130)