2025 Open Championship Picks: Best Head-to-Head Bets (Round 4)

The fourth and final round of the 153rd Open Championship tees off on Sunday at Royal Portrush. Scottie Scheffler has a vice-grip lead against the field, heading into the fourth round with a four-stroke lead at 14-under-par.

The World No. 1 golfer went bogey-free on Saturday en route to a 4-under-par performance. Meanwhile, Matt Fitzpatrick, who started the third round one stroke behind Scheffler, struggled to keep pace, finishing at even par (71) with four bogeys, two birdies, and an eagle.

Rory McIlroy made a run on Saturday with a 66, surging into T4 on the leaderboard at 8-under-par. The Northern Ireland native joins last week’s Genesis Scottish Open winner, Chris Gotterup, at 8-under-par, along with Harris English and Tyrrell Hatton. China’s Haotong Li is the lone golfer in runner-up position at 10-under-par.

My Open Championship Picks: Best Head-to-Head Bets in Round 3 settled 0-2-1. Chris Gotterup and Harris English tied at 3-under-par on Saturday, resulting in a push, voiding the wager. Robert MacIntyre lost by two strokes to Hatton as an underdog, while Brian Harman’s +2 outing saw him fail to cash as a -130 favorite against Rasmus Hojgaard.

I’ve got three more head-to-head bets to place in Round 4 during the Open Championship on Sunday. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly PGA Tour analysis.

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2025 Open Championship: Best Bets

These plays are 1 unit, or 1% of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook. 

Nicolai Hojgaard vs. Rasmus Hojgaard – Round 4 (18 Hole Matchups)

I couldn’t pass up the opportunity to bet on a head-to-head matchup that features identical twins. Danish golfers Nicolai Hojgaard and Rasmus Hojgaard both sit T9 on the leaderboard at 6-under-par.

Nicolai Hojgaard shot 2-under-par (69) in Round 3, one stroke better than Rasmus Hojgaard. Throughout the tournament, Nicolai has been strong on approach and around the greens, ranked inside the top ten for both metrics. Rasmus is marginally weaker in these areas but he’s 16th SG: Putting, which is a big edge over his brother.

Ironically, the Hojgaard twins sit ninth (Rasmus) and 10th (Nicolai) in total strokes gained in the field this week at Royal Portrush. Oddsmakers have Nicolai valued as a slight favorite at -115 odds.

I’m going to back the better putter and grab the bit of value that exists on Rasmus Hojgaard as a -110 underdog.

Pick: Rasmus Hojgaard (-110)

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Christian Bezuidenhout vs. Sungjae Im  – Round 4 (18 Hole Matchups)

Next up, we’ve got Sungjae Im as another slight favorite (-115) against South African ball-striker, Christian Bezuidenhout. Im shot 4-under-par in Round 3 on Saturday to climb into T22 on the leaderboard, while Bezuidenhout finished his third round at 2-under-par.

These two golfers have totally different styles that have both worked at Royal Portrush. Im ranks eighth SG: Approach and 11th SG: Around the Green this week. Bezuidenhout is 14th SG: Approach, 30th SG: Around the Green and 33rd SG: Putting.

Weaknesses exist for each of these players in this 18 hole matchup betting market. Im ranks 105th SG: Putting and 104th SG: Off-the-Tee. Bezuidenhout is 131st SG: Off-the-Tee, while ranking 33rd or better in all other major strokes gained metrics.

On Saturday, Bezuidenhout made 17 pars and one eagle, avoiding bogey miscues to finish 2-under-par. Im’s scorecard had a lot more circles on it, finishing Round 3 with six birdies, including five on the front-nine, along with a pair of bogeys.

Im is undoubtedly the streakier golfer but he’s also capable of draining more birdies. With improved ironplay, oddsmakers also recognize Im should be a favorite, which is why he’s -115 to Bezuidenhout’s -110 in this 18 hole matchup prop.

I’ll continue to back the small favorites at a good price. Let’s bet one unit on Im to go lower than Bezuidenhout on Sunday.

Pick: Sungjae Im (-115)

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Rory McIlroy vs. Scottie Scheffler – Round 4 (18 Hole Matchups)

The marquee matchup in this betting market is Rory McIlroy against Scottie Scheffler. Oddsmakers have set Scheffler as a relatively small favorite compared to his usual price, available to bet at -130 odds. McIlroy is currently the underdog at even odds (+100) to score lower than the World No. 1 golfer in Round 4.

Scheffler carded a 7-under-par performance to lock into contention in Round 2. Then, he avoided bogeys on Saturday, building a four-stroke lead over the rest of the field.

McIlroy shot 5-under-par on Saturday to climb inside the top five on the leaderboard. This included an eagle, four birdies, and one bogey. He’s ranked 11th SG: Approach and eighth SG: Putting at Royal Portrush this week, sitting fourth in total strokes gained.

Scheffler is second SG: Approach and leads the field in SG: Putting. This is why he’s been able to overcome mediocre play off-the-tee and around the greens. Scheffler sits 97th around the greens and 60th with his driver.

McIlroy is dealing with a six-stroke deficit to catch Scheffler. It’s harder to hold than to chase on Sunday at a major, even if you’re the best golfer in the planet.

I like how McIlroy’s game has looked this week, especially in Round 3. With low expectations due to Scheffler holding a sizable lead heading into Round 4, we could wind up watching McIlroy surge early, while Scheffler can likely get away with finishing close to par.

Let’s bet on McIlroy to beat Scheffler in this Round 4 18 hole matchup prop at even odds.

Pick: Rory McIlroy (+100)