2025 Open Championship Picks & Predictions: Sleepers to Win

Northern Ireland’s Royal Portrush hosts the 153rd edition of the Open Championship this week. It’s the final major of the 2025 PGA Tour season, with plenty of narratives to unpack, especially with Rory McIlroy and Shane Lowry.

McIlroy grew up in Northern Ireland and set a course record as a teenager, shooting a 61 to go 10-under-par in an amateur event. Lowry wound up shooting a 63 during his 2019 Open Championship win at Royal Portrush, which set the course record after renovations were made. This led to the Irishman beating Tommy Fleetwood by six strokes in a dominant performance.

Scottie Scheffler, McIlroy, and Jon Rahm are the only golfers shorter than 20-1 in the outright winner betting market this week. It’s a great opportunity to find other golfers with longer odds, or “sleepers,” who are either trending up or possess the proper skillset to contend for a major title at this iconic links course.

I’m back with four golfers to back as sleeper prospects for an outright win at the 2025 Open Championship. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly analysis during the remainder of the 2025 PGA Tour season.

• More Golf Picks
• Tournament Winner Odds

Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>

Top Sleepers to Win 2025 Open Championship: Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Matt Fitzpatrick (+5500)

Matt Fitzpatrick is quickly gaining steam and being bought into by bettors ahead of this week’s Open Championship. However, I still consider him a sleeper based on his current 55-1 price.

After a rough stretch of golf to start the 2025 season, the Englishman has carded back-to-back top 10 finishes in his last two events played. This includes a season-best T4 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open on Sunday.

Fitzpatrick has a pair of PGA Tour wins, including a major during the 2022 U.S. Open. He’s trending up and ranks top 50 in total strokes gained, including 14th on approach shots from 200+ yards and 15th in sand save percentage.

---

Russell Henley (+6500)

I like how Russell Henley profiles at Royal Portrush ahead of Round 1. The Georgia native already has a win against a Signature Event field at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, making a late push to beat Collin Morikawa.

Henley’s stats are extremely encouraging when it comes to backing him in the outright winner market. He’s ranked fifth in total strokes gained, 15th SG: Approach, 34th SG: Putting, 14th driving accuracy and paces the PGA Tour in hole proximity.

Ranked 15th in scoring average, 16th bogey avoidance, 10th on par 4s and 16th birdie average, Henley’s only weakness is his power off the tee box. However, with the undulations on links courses, his ball may wind up 30-40 yards further than it carries, which eliminates concern about his driving distance.

At 65-1, Henley is a prime sleeper candidate to bet on at the Open Championship this week.

---

Cameron Young (+8000)

After going T4-T4 in back-to-back events at the RBC Canadian Open and U.S. Open, Young has regressed with a pair of finishes outside the top 40. He’s a bomber off-the-tee and possesses elite putting talent, which bodes well for links golf.

Young ranks 11th SG: Putting, 27th in driving distance, and top 50 in sand save percentage. He’s also 14th for putting average, 16th putts per round and 12th in one-putt percentage. It’s allowed him to average over four birdies per round (4.05) in 2025.

Approach shots and scrambling remain areas of improvement, which is why oddsmakers are bearish on his ability to contend this week. However, 80-1 is a lucrative price to pass on for a player of Young’s caliber.

---

Harry Hall (+11000)

One of the PGA Tour’s best putters, Harry Hall, is available to bet at 110-1 odds this week. The Englishman has carded four top 10 finishes this season, while ranking third SG: Putting, eighth scrambling, second in putting average and first for putts per round.

Hall’s short game is top-notch. Unfortunately, his driving and approach shot accuracy is nowhere near his talent around and on the greens. He sits outside the top 100 in total driving, SG: Approach and proximity.

Despite his shortcomings from tee-to-green, Hall is second in scoring average, third on par 4s and third for birdie average this year. He’s also logged finishes of T6-T24-T9-T13-T17 entering Royal Portrush.

The T17 finish came in Scotland during last week’s Genesis Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club, demonstrating Hall is comfortable playing on a links course. He’s worth a small wager at a whopping +11000 outright winner price.