2025 RBC Canadian Open Picks & Predictions: Best PGA Bets
The 2025 RBC Canadian Open will be hosted at TPC Toronto Osprey Valley this week. It’s the first time the PGA Tour has played this par 70 course, meaning there will be a learning curve involved for this field.
Scottie Scheffler’s absence in the field means Rory McIlroy is the new betting favorite at +450 odds. McIlroy has won the RBC Canadian Open twice, although he’ll be navigating Osprey Valley for the first time. He’s coming off of a season-worst T47 finish at the PGA Championship, failing to climb the leaderboard at a historically successful course like Quail Hollow Club.
My 2025 Memorial Tournament Best Bets settled 2-1 on Sunday, making it a profitable event. Jordan Spieth cashed a Top 20 Finish at +125 odds, while Robert MacIntyre carded a T20 finish to win his Top 30 Finish prop at -125 odds. The loser was Xander Schauffele’s Top 10 Finish at +130 odds. Schauffele wound up T25 at +4, only breaking 70 once.
I’m back with more best bets, each worth one unit, to place on the upcoming 2025 RBC Canadian Open. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly PGA Tour analysis.
2025 RBC Canadian Open: Best Bets
These plays are 1 unit, or 1% of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Top 20 Finish
Matti Schmid is coming off of a missed cut at The Memorial Tournament, which is why he’s sitting at +280 odds for a Top 20 Finish. The 27-year-old German golfer has four top 10 finishes, including three since the Corales Puntacana Championship on April 20th. He’s got five top 20 finishes in 16 events played this season.
Schmid chipped in for birdie on the final hole during the Charles Schwab Challenge, forcing Ben Griffin to sink a four-foot par putt for a one-stroke victory.
Osprey Valley profiles as a good course fit for Schmid, who ranks 36th SG: Approach, 15th in driving distance and 38th at finding greens in regulation. He’s also 10th on approach shots from 200 yards, which bodes well for a lengthy par 70 course like Osprey Valley.
50th putting average, 44th in scoring average and 10th in birdie average are enough to justify a one-unit wager placed on Matti Schmid to record a Top 20 Finish at +280 odds.
Pick: Matti Schmid (+280)
Top 20 Finish
We’ll stay in this same Top 20 Finish betting market and target Ryo Hisatsune at +280 odds. The 22-year-old Japanese golfer has enjoyed a quality stretch on the 2025 PGA Tour, including a recent T6 finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Hisatsune ranks 25th in total strokes gained. This includes 45th SG: Approach, 16th scrambling, seventh sand save percentage and 14th scoring average.
Putting issues and lack of distance off-the-tee are the primary concerns for Hisatsune to record a Top 20 Finish at a course like Osprey Valley. However, he’s logged six top 20 finishes in 16 events on the PGA Tour in 2025.
His iron accuracy and short game around the green are the most reliable aspects of Hisatsune’s game. Let’s bet one more unit on another Top 20 Finish prop at +280 odds.
Pick: Ryo Hisatsune (+280)
Top 40 Finish
Let’s close out with a Top 40 Finish prop and back Alex Smalley in a bounce-back spot at the 2025 RBC Canadian Open. Smalley’s metrics are impressive, although his recent play on the course has been volatile.
The 28-year-old American is coming off of a missed cut at Colonial during the Charles Schwab Challenge. He’s had a week off to prepare and rest for Osprey Valley, which feels like a good time for a reset.
Smalley ranks top-20 in total strokes gained, SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Off-the-Tee, total driving, scrambling, scoring average and par 4 scoring average. However, this has only led to two top 10 finishes in 16 PGA Tour events this season.
Smalley has secured a Top 40 Finish in 10 of 11 events when he’s made the cut in 2025. His tee-to-green efficiency is good enough to back Smalley to record a Top 40 Finish at the 2025 RBC Canadian Open for one unit at -140 odds.
Pick: Alex Smalley (-140)