2025 The American Express Longshot Odds, Picks, & Predictions
The American Express is next up on the PGA Tour schedule, teeing off on Thursday from La Quinta, California in the Coachella Valley. It’s a Pro-Am event with a unique format, as the field plays on three different par 72 courses, before a 54-hole cut line is enforced after Saturday’s third round wraps up. Golfers who make the cut will play Pete Dye Stadium Course for a second time on Sunday.
Last year, amateur Nick Dunlap won outright at 29-under-par, setting an event record and winning by one stroke. Dunlap returns as a professional but is +5500 to defend his title, with Sungjae Im and Justin Thomas betting favorites at +1200, followed by Sam Burns at +1600.
Last week at the Sony Open, my two longshot picks, Matt Kuchar (+8000) and Mac Meissner (+11000), made some noise, but both wound up carding finishes of T21 at 10-under-par, six strokes shy of winner, Nick Taylor.
I’m back with a couple more longshot prospects to sprinkle on ahead of Round 1 at The American Express. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly analysis.
2025 The American Express: Best Longshot Bets
These plays are .25u, or 0.25% of your betting bankroll. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.
Christian Bezuidenhout (+8000)
I’m going to back last year’s runner-up, Christian Bezuidenhout, at 80-1 odds in his return to The American Express. Bezuidenhout carded a forgettable T40 finish in a field of 59 golfers during The Sentry in Kapalua a couple of weeks ago. He did get hot in the third round, finishing with a 63 at 10-under-par, while finishing 70 or higher in all other rounds.
Bezuidenhout started with a 9-under-par finish in Round 1 last year at The American Express, then finished with back-to-back 7-under-par scorecards after a 5-under-par outing in Round 2. He surged late but Dunlap’s lead was too big, ultimately losing by one stroke in a solo runner-up finish at 28-under-par.
Bezuidenhout ranked 20th SG: Putting in 2024, 39th in proximity, and 12th in scrambling. Plus, he was 26th in par 4 scoring, so combining all of these metrics, along with his propensity to get red hot, I like staking a 0.25 unit bet on the South African golfer to avenge his loss to Dunlap with an outright win at 80-1 odds, pulling in 20 units of profit.
Lee Hodges (+8000)
Lee Hodges is also available in the outright betting market at 80-1. Hodges has an outright win on the PGA Tour at the 2023 3M Open and turned in a phenomenal putting performance at Waialae last weekend.
Hodges went 12-under-par for a T10 finish, ranked sixth in SG: Putting, 26th SG: Off-the-Tee, and 19th in birdie average. The putter is his best club right now and it’s going to give Hodges a big advantage over a lot of other golfers in this field.
He’s missed the cut in back-to-back appearances at The American Express, however, oddsmakers are showing signs of interest with his outright odds as low as 80-1 right now. That may be due to Hodges carding a T3 finish at this event in 2022, going 20-under-par, losing by three strokes, outscored by only Tom Hoge and two-time winner, Hudson Swafford.
Let’s sprinkle another 0.25 unit wager on Hodges to contend for the outright win at 80-1 odds.
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