2025 The American Express Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best PGA Bets

The 2025 American Express is the next event on the PGA Tour circuit. It’s a full field heading to La Quinta, California in the Coachella Valley ahead of Thursday’s opening round. Golfers will play three different courses, including the Pete Dye Stadium Course twice, for anyone who makes it past the 54-hole cut line enforced after the third round on Saturday.

Last year’s winner, Nick Dunlap, won as an amateur by one stroke at 29-under-par, setting a 72-hole record at The American Express. Dunlap returns at +5500 odds to defend his title, with Sungjae Im and Justin Thomas currently co-favorites in the outright betting market at +1200.

Last week, my Sony Open best bets wound up 0-3 in the outright winner market, with Russell Henley (+2000) drawing the best finish at T10, while Maverick McNealy (+2800) went T45 and Austin Eckroat (+3500) missed the cut at Waialae.

I’ve got three best bets for The American Express. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly analysis.

The American Express: Best Bets

These plays are 1 unit and 0.50 units. Or 1% and 0.5% of your betting bankroll. Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sungjae Im Top 20 Finishing Position (-125)

Sungjae Im didn’t compete at Waialae last week but he had a strong showing at Kapalua during The Sentry, recording a solo third-place finish at 29-under-par. The South Korean native has played consistently well at The American Express, carding finishes of T25, T18, T11, and T12 since 2021.

Dead heat rules apply, meaning the payout will be reduced if there are more than 20 golfers who finish top 20 or better at this event. However, I’m willing to stake a unit on Im to stay dialed in with his irons and convert plenty of birdies en route to a fourth top-20 finish in five years, bouncing back from his lone finish outside of the top 25 at La Quinta in 2024.

Adam Hadwin Top 20 Finishing Position (+280)

Staying in the Top 20 finishing position betting market, I’m willing to stake half a unit on Adam Hadwin to have a quality outing this week. Hadwin recorded a T18 in 2023 and a T6 in 2024 at The American Express, while coming off of a modest T59 finish at Waialae this past weekend.

At +280 odds, I can’t ignore the value on the Canadian golfer. He’s a great putter, which will be a useful skill to possess on a variety of par 72 courses this week. Hadwin has been red-hot at this event in each of the past two years and I expect that he’ll continue to sink birdies and avoid bogeys on these relatively friendly courses in La Quinta.

Group E – Tom Hoge (+280)

Tom Hoge has had back-to-back fantastic starts during the two events in Hawaii. Hoge is one of the best iron players in this field, ranked 11th in SG: Approach in 2025. He logged a T17 finish at The American Express in 2024 and is currently the biggest longshot to win Group E at +280 odds.

Dead heat rules do not apply in Group betting but Hoge has to score lower than four other golfers in Group E. These include J.T. Poston, Nicolas Echavarria, and Ben Griffin. Echavarria poses the biggest threat following his playoff loss at Waialae on Sunday but Hoge is undoubtedly better than the other two in terms of approach shots and consistency.

Group E is the only group that has all five golfers in the +200 odds range, so I like staking half a unit on Hoge to wind up with the lowest scorecard once The American Express concludes on Sunday.

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