2025 Open Championship Picks & Predictions: Best PGA Bets

All eyes are on Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland, which will host the 2025 Open Championship as the fourth and final major of the PGA Tour season. Rory McIlroy returns to his native country after a runner-up finish at the Genesis Scottish Open, seeking his 30th career win at the same course he set a record on as a teenager.

Oddsmakers continue to favor Scottie Scheffler in the outright market at +450 odds. The World No. 1 golfer is followed by McIlroy at +750 and Jon Rahm at +1200, before a big gap that picks up with Bryson DeChambeau (+2000) and 2024 Open Championship winner, Xander Schauffele, at +2500 odds.

My Genesis Scottish Open Picks & Predictions: Best PGA Bets went 1-2 at the Renaissance Club. After firing a 66 (-4) in Round 1, Ryan Fox imploded in the final three rounds, carding a T65 finish and unable to cash his Top 20 Finish prop at +260 odds. Sam Burns lost by a stroke to Wyndham Clark in Round 1, despite being the favorite at -130 odds. The lone winner was Viktor Hovland’s Round 1 matchup prop, beating Harris English by six strokes at -115 odds.

I’ve got three best bets to tail ahead of Round 1 at the Open Championship before the first groups tee off at 1:30 a.m. ET on Thursday morning.  Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and PGA Tour analysis.

2025 Open Championship: Best Bets

These plays are 1 unit, or 1% of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bogey Free Round 1

We’re going to go big in Round 1 and bet on Russell Henley to card a bogey free outing on Thursday. Henley ranks 16th in bogey avoidance this season, while sitting fifth in total strokes gained.

The Georgia native is 15th SG: Approach, 34th SG: Putting, 14th in driving accuracy, while leading the PGA Tour in hole proximity. As a result, he’s 15th in scoring average, 10th on par 4s and 16th in birdie average.

Let’s place up to half a unit on this prop and back one of the top golfers in this field to avoid a bogey in Round 1 at 7-1 odds.

Pick: Russell Henley (+700)

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Top 10 Finish

Sepp Straka is enjoying a career year on the PGA Tour, compiling two wins and six top 10 finishes in 19 events this season. Last week, the Austrian golfer carded a solo sixth-place finish in Scotland, going -3-under-par or lower in two of four rounds.

The metrics are off the chart for Straka in 2025. Plus, he just showed us he’s more than capable of navigating a links course. Ranks third in total strokes gained, fourth SG: Approach, 27th SG: Putting, fourth for greens in regulation, 17th driving accuracy and 19th proximity.

Straka’s putter is greatly improved this season, ranked seventh in putting average. It’s why he’s fourth in scoring average and leads the PGA Tour in birdies per round.

Yes, he hasn’t logged consecutive top 10 finishes yet in 2025, but this feels like a good spot for Straka to break that trend.

Pick: Sepp Straka (+350)

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To Miss The Cut

Akshay Bhatia has not had the season many expected after a strong showing in 2024. The 23-year-old American has slid outside the top 25 in three straight events, including a missed cut at the U.S. Open.

Bhatia went +7 and missed the cut at Royal Troon during last year’s Open Championship. Sure, this is Royal Portrush, but it’s still links golf that Bhatia hasn’t proven to conquer yet.

In 2025, Bhatia ranks 161st scrambling, 103rd SG: Off-the-Tee and 86th in scoring average. His driver has been out of sorts, while irons and the putter have been his strength, ranked 16th SG: Approach and 22nd SG: Putting.

Despite ranking highly in certain key areas, Bhatia hasn’t proven he can contend on a links course. The Los Angeles native has missed five cuts this season and will find a lot of trouble if his errant tee shots continue.

I’m recommending a bet on Bhatia to miss the cut at plus odds this week.

Pick: Akshay Bhatia (+110)