2025 The Players Championship, Picks & Predictions: Best PGA Bets

TPC Sawgrass is the next course on tap for the 2025 Players Championship. Scottie Scheffler returns as the defending champion, aiming for a historic three-peat at this difficult par 72. While he has yet to win outright in 2025, Scheffler remains the outright betting favorite this week at +400. He’s followed by Rory McIlroy (+1000), Collin Morikawa (+1400), Ludvig Aberg (+1600), Justin Thomas (+2200) and Xander Schauffele (+2200) to round out the top betting favorites.

Last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, I went 1-2 with my PGA Tour API best bets. Scottie Scheffler’s top-5 finish at -125 odds settled as a loss, as the defending champion recorded a T11 finish at -4-under-par after failing to go lower than 70 in any round at Bay Hill. Patrick Cantlay had his moments but fell out of contention for the outright win at 28-1 with 74-75 on Friday and Saturday. Aaron Rai did come through with a top-30 finish at even odds, managing a T11 finish alongside Scheffler.

With a 144 golfer field, there’s a ton of value across this week’s PGA Tour betting markets. I’ve got three best bets to tail ahead of Round 1 at the Players Championship on Thursday morning. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly PGA Tour analysis.

The Players Championship: Best Bets

These plays are 1 unit and 0.50 units. Or 1% and 0.5% of your betting bankroll. Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

End of Round 1 – Top 10 Finish

This Round 1 top 10 finish market has a lot of appeal and is a fun way to get started at TPC Sawgrass. Collin Morikawa is in great form, despite blowing a lead late to wind up losing to Russell Henley at the Arnold Palmer Invitational on Sunday.

Morikawa ranks 56th in Round 1 scoring average, which isn’t elite, but he does rank second in total strokes gained. This includes 10th on approach, 27th putting, and fifth in driving accuracy. Morikawa also converts 73.6 percent of greens in regulation, ranked 16th on the PGA Tour. Sitting fifth in hole proximity is icing on the cake.

Let’s bet half a unit on Morikawa to record a top-10 finish in Round 1 at The Players Championship on Thursday.

Pick: Collin Morikawa (+350)

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Top 30 Finish

Sepp Straka is another golfer in great form heading into The Players Championship. The Austrian has an outright win and has recorded a top-30 finish in seven of eight events played in 2025. The only finish lower than top-30 came on a missed cut at The Genesis Invitational at Torrey Pines South.

Ranked ninth in total strokes gained, ninth in SG: Approach, 11th in driving accuracy, and second at finding greens in regulation, the putter is the only thing that will be a potential negative for Straka. He’s fourth in proximity but 20th in putting average, so there is some upside with the flat stick. Plus, Straka is fifth in scoring average, seventh on par 4s, and third in birdie average.

Let’s stake a unit on Straka at plus odds to record his eighth top 30 finish of the season at TPC Sawgrass.

Pick: Sepp Straka (+120)

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18 Hole Matchups – Round 1 – Aaron Rai vs Jason Day

I cannot quit Aaron Rai. The Englishman is an elite ball-striking talent and we’re getting him as an underdog against Jason Day in Round 1. Rai typically gets off to a hot start in Round 1 this season, ranking 35th in Round 1 scoring average (69). Day is a volatile golfer who ranks 168th in Round 1 scoring average (71.6) in 2025.

Day is 17th in putting average and 39th SG: Approach. Yet Rai ranks 34th SG: Approach, sixth in driving accuracy, 30th at finding greens in regulation, and 16th on par 4s. Rai averages 4.5 birdies per round and is also 43rd in SG: Off-the-Tee.

I expect more clean lies and approach shots from Rai, which will be the difference-maker in scoring lower than Day in Round 1 at TPC Sawgrass. Let’s place one more unit on this 18 hole matchup Round 1 prop and back Rai to beat Day as a slight underdog.

Pick: Aaron Rai (-110)