2025 U.S. Open Picks: Best Head-to-Head Bets (Round 1)
We’re less than 24 hours away from the 2025 U.S. Open getting underway from Oakmont Country Club. The 125th edition of this major has a loaded field of golfers competing, led by World No. 1, Scottie Scheffler, as a short betting favorite at +275 odds in the outright winner market.
Oakmont is a par 70 that is located outside of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Conditions are expected to be extremely difficult. Infamous five-inch rough and Poa annua greens measure up to 15 feet via Stimpmeter due to their slick surface and undulations. Several golfers in this field have predicted that the winning score could wind up being over par.
There’s a lot of different ways to bet on golf outside of outright winners. In this U.S. Open betting article, we’ll be analyzing and recommending several bets to place in the Round 1 head-to-head prop bet market. Let’s grab some early action with head-to-head matchup props on Thursday.
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2025 U.S. Open: Best Bets
These plays are 1 unit, or 1% of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Matt Fitzpatrick vs. Harris English – Round 1 (18 Hole Matchups)
Matt Fitzpatrick won his first PGA Tour event during the 2022 U.S. Open, so he’ll be in good spirits taking the tee box on Thursday. It hasn’t been a great season for the Englishman thus far, posting only one top 10 finish and missing four cuts.
Oddsmakers have put Harris English against Fitzpatrick in this 18 Hole Matchups betting market. English is having a career year on the PGA Tour, wining the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines as a longshot, while carding a T2 finish at the PGA Championship.
English ranks 19th SG: Putting, 30th in total driving and 40th in bogey avoidance. In comparison, Fitzpatrick ranks 141st in bogey avoidance, 119th SG: Putting and 83rd total driving. Also sits 140th on par 4s, while English is 58th in this metric. English is 100th in Round 1 scoring average while Fitzpatrick is 177th.
There’s a reason oddsmakers value English as the betting favorite at -130 odds. Let’s ride with English and bet one unit on him to beat Fitzpatrick in Round 1.
Pick: Harris English (-130)
J.T. Poston vs. Nick Taylor – Round 1 (18 Hole Matchups)
This next 18 hole matchup prop is a bit tighter between J.T. Poston and Nick Taylor. Oddsmakers slightly favor Taylor at -115 odds, while Poston is available to bet at -110 odds.
I’ve backed Taylor in numerous betting markets all season. He’s got an outright win at the Sony Open back in January, while also logging four top 20 finishes in his previous five events entering the U.S. Open.
Poston is coming off of his second missed cut in 2025 at the Memorial Tournament. He shot a 77, departing from his usual low scores in Round 1. Ranked 27th in driving accuracy.
Taylor is the better golfer in my opinion. He’s 13th SG: Approach, 17th driving accuracy, fifth at finding greens in regulation and 18th proximity. Also sits 32nd scrambling, 20th scoring average and 10th on par 4s.
Most notably, Taylor is 12th in bogey avoidance, compared to Poston ranking 96th in this metric. Let’s continue backing the favorite and place another unit on the Canadian golfer to beat Poston during the opening round on Thursday at -115 odds.
Pick: Nick Taylor (-115)
Justin Thomas vs. Jordan Spieth – Round 1 (18 Hole Matchups)
My underdog pick in the Round 1 18 Hole Matchups prop betting market is Jordan Spieth. He’ll go up against Justin Thomas and holds good value at even odds.
Spieth has been putting together more consistently good golf in the past few events he’s played. This includes a T7 finish at the Memorial Tournament to gain momentum heading into the U.S. Open.
Conversely, Thomas’ play has regressed a bit following a playoff win at the RBC Heritage that snapped a three-year win drought. He did follow that victory up with a runner-up finish during the Truist Championship in early May but missed the cut at the PGA Championship and carded a pedestrian T31 finish at the Memorial Tournament.
Spieth ranks 26th SG: Off-the-Tee, 36th total driving and 23rd putting average. In Round 1, Spieth is 97th in scoring average (70.43), while Thomas sits at 110th with a 70.6 Round 1 scoring average.
Spieth holds the edge off-the-tee in this matchup, which will prove to be the difference-maker at Oakmont. He’s 28th in bounce back and 75th bogey avoidance, which is also encouraging as the underdog against Thomas.
Thomas is 54th bogey avoidance and 31st in bounce back. Yet he’s just 103rd total driving and 121st in driving accuracy. This will lead to errant lies in the thick rough, which gives Spieth a big advantage.
Let’s place one final unit on Jordan Spieth to win this Round 1 18 Hole Matchups prop against Justin Thomas at +100 odds.
Pick: Jordan Spieth (+100)