2025 U.S. Open Picks & Predictions: Sleepers to Win

The PGA Tour returns to Oakmont Country Club in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania for the 125th edition of the U.S. Open. It’s a brutal par 70 that is expected to play well over par, with five-inch rough and undulated Poa annua greens running between 14-15 feet via Stimpmeter.

Unsurprisingly, Scottie Scheffler enters this major with extremely short odds as the betting favorite in the outright winner market. The World No. 1 is +275 to win the 2025 U.S. Open, which would be his second major and fourth overall win this year.

It’s a major, meaning this field is loaded with talented golfers. This includes top LIV prospects like Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm and Joaquin Niemann.

This star-studded field leads to longer odds on golfers who have the talent and current form to climb into contention. We’ll go ahead and call them “sleepers” who can wind up seizing the outright win at Oakmont this weekend.

I’ve got several sleeper picks to tail with the latest odds ahead of Round 1 on Thursday. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly analysis during the 2025 PGA Tour season.

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Top Sleepers to Win 2025 U.S. Open: Picks & Predictions

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Tommy Fleetwood (+4000)

A PGA Tour win is long overdue for a golfer of Tommy Fleetwood’s talent. The Englishman has won several times on the DP World Tour but has not been able to record his breakthrough win in PGA events.

He’s got a fantastic opportunity to flex his tee-to-green efficiency at Oakmont this week. Fleetwood ranks seventh total strokes gained, which includes 12th SG: Approach, 18th putting average and 10th on par 4s in 2025.

Greens in regulation have been an issue for Fleetwood this season. However, greens at Oakmont are large, measuring 8,500 square feet on average, so he’ll be able to leverage his reliable short game to avoid bogeys and double bogeys.

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Shane Lowry (+4500)

Shane Lowry is one of my favorite golfers in the outright winner betting market at Oakmont this week. The Irishman nearly won the 2016 U.S. Open here with a runner-up finish behind Dustin Johnson. Lowry has also carded a pair of runner-up finishes in 2025 at Pebble Beach and the Truist Championship.

In 2025, Lowry ranks fifth total strokes gained. He’s second SG: Approach, 28th driving accuracy, and leads the PGA Tour in hole proximity. Sits 24th scrambling, 30th scoring average and 17th on par 4s as well.

At 45-1 odds, Lowry is technically a top 10 betting favorite. However, compared to Scheffler’s +275 price, Lowry is undoubtedly a sleeper candidate. Back him to win his second career major, ending a five-year win drought in traditional stroke play format.

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Ben Griffin (+7500)

There will likely be a lot of golf bettors backing Ben Griffin following his recent success on the PGA Tour. Griffin teamed up with Andrew Novak to win the Zurich Classic, then went out and won the Charles Schwab Challenge a month later.

Griffin has placed inside the top 10 in three straight events, including his win at Colonial in late May. Coming off of a solo runner-up finish at the Memorial Tournament during his last outing.

Ranks 18th in total strokes gained, 30th at finding greens in regulation and 23rd scoring average in 2025. Griffin’s short game is his strength and he’s currently riding a ton of momentum into his U.S. Open debut.

75-1 is too much value to ignore on Griffin. He’s a prime sleeper target in the outright winner betting market at Oakmont this week.

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Keegan Bradley (+9000)

I’ll wrap up with Keegan Bradley at 90-1 odds. The Ryder Cup captain has strung together consecutive top 10 finishes at the PGA Championship and Memorial Tournament.

Bradley is 15th total strokes gained, including 14th SG: Approach, 27th SG: Off-the-Tee, 19th total driving and 22nd proximity. 26th in putting average, 17th on par 4s, and most importantly, 39th in bounce back percentage.

+9000 creates a lot of value on Bradley, who is a seven-time winner on the PGA Tour. He’s seeking his first major title and Oakmont may be the perfect place for Bradley to achieve this feat by showcasing his tee-to-green efficiency.