2025 Open Championship Picks & Predictions: Longshot Bets
The 153rd Open Championship is set to be played at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland this week. It’s the final major of the 2025 PGA Tour season, which means the world’s best golfers are featured in this field, led by Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy.
It’s a homecoming for McIlroy, who grew up in Northern Ireland. He also famously shot a 61 (-10) as a teenager at Royal Portrush. During his return to this venue during the 2019 Open Championship, the native imploded in Round 1, which led to a disappointing missed cut.
McIlroy is coming off of a runner-up finish to Chris Gotterup at the Genesis Scottish Open last week. The New Jersey native carded his second PGA Tour win at a long +9000 odds. This is the type of value we’re looking to find ahead of Round 1 teeing off at the Open Championship on Thursday.
I’ve found two golfers with long odds who could make a run up the leaderboard to contend late Sunday afternoon. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly PGA Tour analysis.
2025 Open Championship: Longshot Bets
These plays are .25u, or 0.25% of your betting bankroll. Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Justin Rose (+7500)
We’ve seen Justin Rose be hot and cold at the three previous majors this season. The 44-year-old Englishman is still seeking his first Open Championship title, although he does have 11 PGA Tour wins, including a major at the 2013 U.S. Open.
Rose is coming off of a strong solo sixth-place finish in Scotland on Sunday. He shot a closing round 63.
If there’s one thing the veteran golfer can do on a golf course, it’s putt. Rose ranks 33rd in one-putt percentage and 22nd in putting average, which is why he’s 45th in birdie average on the PGA Tour, despite notable flaws in his tee-to-green game.
He’s shortened from 80-1 to 75-1 in the outright winner betting market. He nearly ruined Rory McIlroy’s bid at The Masters in April, losing to him in a playoff.
I expect Rose to get hot with his flat stick and bury birdies to launch into contention at Royal Portrush.
Andrew Novak (+17000)
Andrew Novak is one of the more underrated golfers on the PGA Tour right now. The 30-year-old American just carded a T13 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open, shooting a 63 in Round 2.
Novak ranks 36th in total strokes gained, notably, 37th SG: Putting and 16th in sand save percentage. He’s another quality putter, ranked sixth in putts per round and 16th in one-putt percentage.
67th in scrambling also shows Novak’s strength in his overall short game, which is a crucial element to contend on links courses. We’ve seen Novak win the Zurich Classic with teammate Ben Griffin, lose to Justin Thomas in a playoff at the RBC Heritage and card a pair of third-place finishes at the Farmers Insurance Open and Valero Texas Open.
Novak is a huge value to win the Open Championship at 170-1 odds. Make sure to sprinkle on this line before he tees off on Thursday.