2025 Valero Texas Open Golf Odds & Picks: Head-to-Head Matchups
Texas remains the host of the next PGA Tour event with 150 golfers preparing to play the Valero Texas Open at TPC San Antonio this week. Last year gave us a playoff showdown between Akshay Bhatia and Denny McCarthy, with Bhatia recording the outright win after dominating the Oaks Course with his irons.
Last week’s Texas Children’s Houston Open head-to-head matchups went 0-2 in the Tournament Group matchups betting market. Rory McIlroy was outpaced by Scottie Scheffler on Sunday, while Alex Smalley missed the cut, never giving us a realistic chance to cash his +320 prop.
I’m back with another pair of Tournament Group matchups to tail ahead of Round 1 at the 2025 Valero Texas Open on Thursday. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more PGA free bets and weekly analysis throughout the 2025 PGA Tour season.
2025 Valero Texas Open Odds & Picks
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tournament Group – Aberg v Fleetwood v Matsuyama v Conners v Cantlay
It’s hard to fade Corey Conners at a course where he’s won twice on the PGA Tour. The Canadian is playing great golf right now, which makes him even more tempting to back, despite being placed in a Tournament Group with a ton of talented golfers.
Conners has three straight top-ten finishes, including a solo third-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’s ranked 27th in total strokes gained metrics, which includes 20th off-the-tee, 21st in driving accuracy, and 18th at finding greens in regulation at 70.5 percent.
Conners is also 21st in proximity, 18th on par 4s, and both of his PGA Tour wins came at TPC San Antonio in 2019 and 2023. His off-the-tee and approach game are top-tier, plus, it’s obvious he’s comfortable playing at the Oaks Course.
We’re landing a nice value on Conners in this market due to the presence of Ludvig Aberg and Tommy Fleetwood, who are the first and second betting favorites according to oddsmakers. Let’s take advantage and bet half a unit on Conners to win this Tournament Group prop at +350 odds.
Pick: Corey Conners (+350)
Tournament Group – Spieth v Bradley v McCarthy v Bhatia v S.W. Kim
Jordan Spieth has had a lot of success playing TPC San Antonio over the years, including a win in 2021. He’ll be going up against last year’s playoff tandem, Denny McCarthy and winner Akshay Bhatia.
Spieth is a volatile golfer, making him a bit more risky than other favorites in this Tournament Group prop betting market. However, he’s recorded two top-ten finishes in only six events in 2025. Spieth is coming off of a T28 finish at the Valspar Championship a couple of weeks ago.
Ranked 37th in par 4 scoring and 44th in total strokes gained, Spieth’s stats aren’t overly impressive. He tends to struggle with his driver accuracy and scrambling, so this prop could flop on us by the end of the weekend.
I’m willing to back Spieth in this market to beat Keegan Bradley, Si Woo Kim, and last year’s top two performers, McCarthy and Bhatia, based on his previous success at TPC San Antonio. He’s logged four top-ten finishes here, a runner-up, and an outright win, so let’s bet one more half-unit wager on Spieth as a favorite at +280 odds.
Pick: Jordan Spieth (+280)
Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.