2025 Valero Texas Open, Picks & Predictions: Best PGA Bets

The precursor to the first major of the 2025 PGA Tour season, The Masters, is a full field competing at the 2025 Valero Texas Open. Hosted at TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course), this par 72 track runs over 7,400 yards in length.

Akshay Bhatia returns to defend his title, with oddsmakers valuing Ludvig Aberg as the current betting favorite at +1200 odds. Tommy Fleetwood (+1400), two-time Valero winner Corey Conners (+1600), and Patrick Cantlay (+1800) are the other top favorites in the Tournament Winner market on DraftKings Sportsbook.

My  Texas Children’s Houston Open PGA best bets finished 1-1. Aaron Rai’s missed cut never got us close to cashing his top 10 finish prop at +280 odds. However, we did hit on Jake Knapp’s top 30 finish prop at +170 odds, turning a bit of profit despite the loss.

I’ve got two PGA best bets to tail, each worth one unit, ahead of Thursday’s opening tee times from TPC San Antonio. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly PGA Tour analysis.

Valero Texas Open: Best Bets

These plays are 1 unit and 0.50 units. Or 1% and 0.5% of your betting bankroll. Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Top 20 Finish

Denny McCarthy came close to recording his first PGA Tour win at the Valero Texas Open in 2024 after sinking birdies on the back-nine during Sunday’s final round. An untimely approach shot into a water hazard in a playoff against Akshay Bhatia kept McCarthy from breaking through last year.

McCarthy is back for revenge and I have no doubt he winds up with a top 20 finish during his return to TPC San Antonio this week. McCarthy has four top 20 finishes in his past five starts. He’s ranked 28th in total strokes gained, including 27th on approach, 17th putting, and 13th proximity.

Finding greens in regulation at 69.4 percent is 33rd on the PGA Tour this season. McCarthy is 27th scrambling, 31st in scoring average, and eighth on par 4s. This is more than enough to justify placing a bet on McCarthy to wind up T20 or better on the final leaderboard this weekend, especially at +140 odds.

Pick: Denny McCarthy (+140)

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Top 30 Finish

Sam Stevens has fared well at TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course. He carded a runner-up finish in 2023 and a T14 here in 2024.

Stevens has had a rollercoaster season thus far, bouncing between top-20 finishes (3), including a solo runner-up at Torrey Pines during the Farmers Insurance Open, to a missed cut at The Players Championship and a T64 at the Valspar Championship. He bounced back last week with a T18 at the Houston Open, overcoming a slow start to wind up 10-under-par.

Stevens ranks 31st SG: Off-the-Tee, including 38th total driving, 26th scrambling, and 37th on par 4s. He’s had three top 20 finishes in 11 events this season, missing two cuts, while barely falling outside of the top 30 in three other events.

At +125, I’m willing to bet on Stevens to play well after a strong outing at Memorial Park last week. TPC San Antonio has seen Stevens card quality finishes in both previous appearances, so let’s place another one unit wager on him for a third consecutive top 30 finish at the Valero Texas Open.

Pick: Sam Stevens (+125)