2025 Valspar Championship Golf Odds & Picks: Head-to-Head Matchups
Innisbrook Resort’s Copperhead Course will host the annual Valspar Championship as the next PGA Tour event this week. It’s a tough par 71 test, filled with water hazards, thin, tree-lined fairways, and Bermuda greens that measure up to 12.5 feet via Stimpmeter.
Peter Malnati will attempt to defend his 2024 win here as a significant longshot at 1000-1 odds. Betting favorites include Tommy Fleetwood (+1200), Justin Thomas (+1200), Xander Schauffele (+1600) and Sepp Straka (+2200) in a lucrative outright winner market.
Since there aren’t any head-to-head betting markets available other than Tournament Groups right now, I’ll offer two of my favorite prospects to bet in these four groups on DraftKings Sportsbook. Last week, I went 2-0 with my Players Championship head-to-head matchup props, cashing Straka’s 3-ball at +135 odds, along with Corey Conners to beat Sungjae Im as an underdog at -110 odds.
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2025 Valspar Championship Odds & Picks
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.
Tournament Group – Mitchell v B. Griffin v Knapp v Theegala v Cam. Young
It’s been tough sledding for me in this tournament group market thus far in 2025 but I like Ben Griffin to bounce back after a couple down weeks. Griffin is going up against Keith Mitchell, Jake Knapp, Sahith Theegala, and Cameron Young in this group.
Young fell apart on the back-nine in what looked to be his first career PGA Tour win at Valspar last year. Mitchell and Theegala haven’t impressed me much this season, while Knapp’s made his presence felt on the leaderboard in a couple of events.
Griffin’s stats aren’t eye-popping but he does rank 52nd in total strokes gained, 31st total driving, 45th driving accuracy, and 50th in scoring average. The North Carolina native also finds greens in regulation at 69.2 percent, ranked 53rd on the PGA Tour.
This course suits his style of play, which is why he’s favored to win this tournament group at +280 odds. Let’s bet half a unit on Griffin at this price to replicate his T17 finish at this event a year ago.
Pick: Ben Griffin (+280)
Tournament Group – Thomas v Fleetwood v Schauffele v Straka v Burns
I’m going to continue riding the “chalk” in this market and grab Justin Thomas at +260 odds as another favorite to win his tournament group at Valspar this week. Thomas has the second shortest odds to win behind Tommy Fleetwood, who has yet to record a win on the PGA Tour.
Thomas has shown a lot of promise in certain rounds this season but hasn’t been able to piece it all together in all four rounds for the most part. He’s a volatile player but an elite ball-striker with his irons, however, his driving accuracy and off-the-tee game have been shaky to start the year. His putter has improved a lot, ranked second in putting average and ninth in putts per round.
Fleetwood, Xander Schauffele, Sepp Straka, and two-time Valspar champion, Sam Burns, is a loaded group to compete against. However, Fleetwood and Schauffele have struggled to get going a bit in 2025. Burns has yet to record a top 20 finish, while Straka is likely the biggest threat to Thomas.
I’m going to rely on Thomas’ ball-striking and accuracy on approach to score lower than his four opponents in this tournament group at Valspar this week. Let’s bet a full unit on J.T. to win this prop at +260 odds for a solid payout.
Pick: Justin Thomas (+260)
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