2025 Viva México 250: NASCAR at Mexico City Odds, Picks & Predictions
Some races just mean more.
As NASCAR heads to Mexico City, it also heads towards a future where an international footprint is at least a Cliff Note - if not a focal point - on the yearly agenda. While this isn’t the first instance NASCAR has competed in a foreign country, it’s the first since 1998, the year I was born.
It’s a huge step, especially in the era of streaming and personalized content, which makes it ever more challenging to reach new fans. With rumors of NASCAR potentially putting Circuit Gilles Villeneuve in Canada or Brands Hatch in England on the schedule, this likely is just the beginning of the “NASCAR Goes Worldwide” reboot.
News of Denny Hamlin bowing out to be with his family after the birth of his newborn son and delayed flights for Xfinity Series drivers has certainly complicated matters. However, nothing rarely goes off without a hitch on the first go. At least NASCAR continues to try to innovate, rather than resting on its laurels.
Here’s to hoping those in attendance at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez this weekend are treated to a show.
Let’s get the fiesta started with my best bets for the 2025 Viva México 250 and full card for a weekend of road course racing south of the border.
2025 Viva México 250: NASCAR at Mexico City Odds, Picks & Predictions
Chris Buescher (-115 via ESPN BET) vs. Daniel Suarez | 5u
With the excitement of this race also comes the over-inflation of the field’s only Mexican-born driver, Daniel Suarez, who opened anywhere from 14-1 to 17-1 outright this week. While he’s a three-time winner in the NASCAR Mexico Series at Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, it was on the one-mile oval and not the 2.42-mile road course they’re racing on this weekend.
“Mi Amigo” being overvalued extends to him going off at pick’em pricing in a H2H matchup against Chris Buescher at ESPN BET. Buescher is coming off a runner-up finish at Michigan and is fifth in the IBT Betting Model projections, compared to Suarez, who slots in at 17th.
Buescher was middling by his standards at Circuit of the Americas (COTA) - the only road course we’ve been to so far this season - rating 11th in average running position (15.6) and eighth in driver rating. However, he still finished seventh, marking his fourth T10 on a road course in the six races at this track style since 2024.
Suarez has just one T10 in that span and a 20.8 average finish, a far cry from Buescher’s of 9.6 (second-best). Being 5-1 against the 33-year-old in that span, I expect Buescher to put a sizeable gap between him and Suarez by the final stage.
Ross Chastain (+100 via Caesars) vs. Daniel Suarez | 2u
Perhaps even more loco is getting Suarez’s Trackhouse Racing teammate Ross Chastain in a H2H matchup against him as an even-money underdog. Chastain slots in sixth in the projections, one spot below Buescher.
While “Melon Man” was the source of a bad T10 beat at COTA earlier this year, he was eighth in average running position (12.4) and seventh in driver rating on the day. Chastain is also fifth in ifantasyrace.com‘s total speed rankings since 2024 and 10th in average finish (14.2) during that span.
With Chastain also sporting a 5-1 record against Suarez at road courses since the start of last season, I’m all in on the Florida native once again proving he’s the superior driver in the stable.
Seth’s Bigtime Summertime Parlay of the Week
It’s understandable if you want to get invested with Shane van Gisbergen (SVG) pre-practice and qualifying. He’s No. 1 in the projections, largely due to having the best road course total speed rankings since 2024 and seventh-best average finish (13.8), despite getting yeeted by Chase Briscoe during a monsoon at Chicago last year.
Even though you could tell he didn’t have the best equipment underneath him at COTA earlier this season, he was second in average running position (3.9) and driver rating. With so much riding on this race and having a knack for winning the first time on a new road course, SVG is the rightful favorite.
However, instead of betting him at +330, I’m parlaying it with my favorite Xfinity Series bet this week: Christopher Bell Top 5 for -115 at DraftKings. Bell is third in the Cup Series projections, courtesy of a second-place position in road course total speed rankings since 2024 and a fifth-best average finish (12.6).
The Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) driver has three wins in the six Xfinity Series races entered since making the jump to the Cup Series in 2020. Bell also had one win and two runner-up finishes in four road course races during his final full-time Xfinity Series season in 2019.
He’s not in JGR equipment on Saturday this weekend, but rather the Sam Hunt Racing No. 24 car. Though it’s not elite, it’s good enough to get Bell to a T5 finish, something Corey Heim did three times in 13 races last year. Bell’s teammate for this race, Dean Thompson, isn’t an extraordinary talent but has four T10s this season and is a respectable 16th place in the standings.
If Thompson’s done that in this equipment, “C Bell” should have no problem putting himself in position to score a T5 on Saturday, giving us a 7-1 outright ticket on SVG heading into Sunday
Parlay Odds: +703 via DraftKings | 1.4u
Other Cup Series Bets on My Card
Carson Hocevar Top 5 (+420 via FanDuel) | .5u
Todd Gilliland Top 10 (+900 via FanDuel) | .5u
The Chilango 150 (Xfinity Series) Bets:
Christopher Bell Top 5 (+100 via ESPN BET) | 2u
Josh Bilicki Top 10 (+1000 via ESPN BET) | .4u
Seth Woolcock is a five-time FSWA-nominated writer and host at BettingPros/FantasyPros. He is also the founder and content director for In-Between Media. For more sports betting and fantasy sports analysis from Seth, follow him on X/Twitter @Between_SethFF and check out his award-nominated NASCAR betting show, “The Backroad.”