2025 WM Phoenix Open Golf Odds & Picks: Head-to-Head Matchups

The 2025 WM Phoenix Open is one of the PGA Tour’s most anticipated events, with crowds offering a bit more raucous atmosphere at TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course in Scottsdale, Arizona. The forecast will be warm and dry, offering minimal challenging conditions for the field of 132 golfers.

Last year’s winner, Nick Taylor, set a course record in Round 1, shooting a 60 on this par 71 track, leading to a playoff win over Charley Hoffman. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler turned in a T3 finish after previously winning the 2022 and 2023 WM Phoenix Open events. Scheffler remains a significant betting favorite at +280 odds, followed by Justin Thomas at +1200 and Hideki Matsuyama at +1600 odds.

I’m back with a couple of tournament 3-ball head-to-head matchups to tail ahead of Round 1 on Thursday morning. Last week at Pebble Beach, my head-to-head matchups in this exact betting market finished 1-1, cashing Jason Day at +160, while losing on Hideki Matsuyama at +170 odds. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more PGA free bets and weekly analysis throughout the 2025 PGA Tour season.

2025 WM Phoenix Open Odds & Picks

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Tournament 3-Balls: Tournament Trio – Burns, T. Kim, Straka

Sam Burns is the favorite in this first tournament 3-ball tournament trio betting market due to strong finishes of T6 and T3 posted in 2023 and 2024. However, I’m leaning into Tom Kim at +175 odds, grabbing a bit of value on the South Korean golfer against Burns and Sepp Straka.

Kim has gone T50 and T17 in the last two seasons at TPC Scottsdale, marginally higher than Burns, but I like how he played at Pebble Beach last weekend. Kim ranks 30th SG: Approach, 12th in total driving, and 14th in hole proximity. Burns holds the edge in putting over Kim and Straka but we saw Kim convert quite a few birdie putts on a more difficult track a couple of days ago.

Burns ranks 21st SG: Putting but is 43rd in total strokes gained, 56th SG: Off-the-Tee, 140th SG: Approach and 88th total driving. He’s converting a scorching 78 percent of greens in regulation, ranked third on the PGA Tour, but his driver and irons leave much to be desired.

Straka won the American Express and contended at Pebble Beach but he hasn’t competed at TPC Scottsdale since 2022, when he turned in a forgettable 66th place finish at +7, barely making the cut. I’m bullish on Kim to keep momentum rolling into Scottsdale and his game is more balanced than Burns, who relies on his putter to save his score.

Let’s stake a unit on Kim to win this 3-ball tournament trio matchup against Burns  (+160) and Straka (+185) at +175 odds.

Pick: Tom Kim (+175)

Tournament 3-Balls: Tournament Trio – Matsuyama, Thomas, Im

Hideki Matsuyama is paired with Justin Thomas (+155) and Sungjae Im (+200) in the next tournament 3-balls tournament trio betting market on DraftKings Sportsbook. Matsuyama has won the WM Phoenix Open twice, albeit in 2016 and 2017.

Matsuyama didn’t have a strong outing at Pebble Beach but neither did Thomas or Im. We’ve seen how hot the Japanese golfer can get with his irons and putter, while his off-the-tee game is the only notable weakness right now.

Thomas continues to be overvalued, ranked second in the outright winner market at 12-1. Thomas has played well at TPC Scottsdale in previous outings but his putter leaves much to be desired. All three of these golfers possess fantastic ironplay but I like Matsuyama’s game the most due to ranking first in scrambling and finishing holes at or below par with an improved putter.

Let’s stake one more unit on Matsuyama to wind up with the lowest tournament score against Thomas and Im at +165 odds.

Pick: Hideki Matsuyama (+165)

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Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.