2025 WM Phoenix Open Odds, Picks & Predictions: Best PGA Bets

The WM Phoenix Open is the next event on the PGA Tour circuit this week. Held at the TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) in Scottsdale, Arizona, this will be the first time in a few weeks where only one course is played during all four rounds. The traditional 36-hole cut line is enforced on a field of 132 golfers, who will look to keep pace with two-time winner, Scottie Scheffler, who enters Thursday’s opening round as a massive betting favorite.

In 2024, Canadian golfer Nick Taylor tied a course record in Round 1, shooting a 60 on this par 71 track. That led to a playoff win over veteran Charley Hoffman, while Scheffler failed to three-peat after recording victories in 2022 and 2023 at TPC Scottsdale. He still logged a T3 finish at -18-under-par.

Last week, my best bets went 0-3 during the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. I’ve got three different betting markets queued up for the 2025 WM Phoenix Open, so let’s end the slump with a 3-0 sweep ahead of Thursday’s opening round from TPC Scottsdale. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and weekly PGA Tour analysis.

WM Phoenix Open: Best Bets

These plays are 1 unit and 0.50 units. Or 1% and 0.5% of your betting bankroll. Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Outright Winner

I’m going with the chalk play in the outright winner betting market and staking a unit on Scottie Scheffler to win his first PGA Tour event in 2025. This is a course that Scheffler has dominated for years, finishing inside the top-three in three consecutive appearances, including back-to-back wins in 2022 and 2023.

In a vacuum, +280 odds is a lucrative wager. Many won’t back the World No. 1 due to this price though, since favorites in other tournaments before Scheffler’s return at Pebble Beach ranged from +800 to +1200 odds. Despite the lack of value at +280 odds, based on how lethal Scheffler is with his irons, combined with his comfort level and dominance at TPC Scottsdale in the past, it’s too enticing to pass up betting on him to win the WM Phoenix Open for a third time.

Pick: Scottie Scheffler (+280)

Top 20 Finishing Positions 

Hideki Matsuyama had a disappointing showing at Pebble Beach, recording a T48 finish, scoring 70 or higher in three of four rounds. Despite falling flat last weekend, the Japanese native has two outright wins at the WM Phoenix Open, going back-to-back in 2016 and 2017.

In 2024, Matsuyama logged a T22 finish at -9-under-par. In 2023, he went T29, and in 2022, Matsuyama carded a T8 finish at -13-under-par. He’s been right outside of a top-20 finish in each of the past two seasons but expect a stronger showing after failing to contend at Pebble Beach a few days ago. Matsuyama won The Sentry by setting a course record during the first event of 2025 and ranks 16th SG: Approach, 35th SG: Putting, and first on the PGA Tour in scrambling.

Let’s stake another unit on a golfer who has historically played well at TPC Scottsdale, targeting Matsuyama for a top-20 finish at -125 odds during the 2025 WM Phoenix Open.

Pick: Hideki Matsuyama (-125)

Top Canadian

For the first time this year, I’m diving into the Top in Region betting market and selecting defending champion, Nick Taylor, to finish with the lowest score amongst all Canadian golfers at +260 odds. Taylor already has an outright win in 2025 at the Sony Open. Plus, he ranks eighth in SG: Approach, 18th in driving accuracy, and hits over 76 percent of greens in regulation, ranking 18th on the PGA Tour.

Taylor set a course record at TPC Scottsdale in 2024 en route to his playoff win over Charley Hoffman and logged a runner-up finish in 2023. The Canadian is competing against fellow countrymen including Corey Conners (+210), Adam Hadwin (+550), Mackenzie Hughes (+550), Adam Svensson (+650), and Ben Silverman (+1000) this week. Conners is the betting favorite in this market but I like Taylor’s putting ability much more than Conners, while both are talented with their irons on approach.

Let’s stake one more unit on Taylor to be the Top Canadian after Sunday’s final round wraps up, cashing a +260 odds ticket on a player who has contended in back-to-back years at TPC Scottsdale.

Pick: Nick Taylor (+260)

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