2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks & Predictions: PGA Longshots
72 of the PGA Tour’s best golfers will compete at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge in Orlando, Florida this week. It’s the third Signature Event, meaning the winner takes home $4 million out of a $20 million purse.
Bay Hill is a par 72 featuring Bermudagrass surfaces that run 7,466 yards. Rough stands four inches, while water hazards abound. Being able to drive far and remain accurate tee-to-green is huge at this course. 7,500 square foot greens will be fast, up to 13 feet via Stimpmeter, so dialing in proximity and finding a hot putter can also help golfers climb the leaderboard.
Scottie Scheffler is seeking his third win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational since 2022. He’s the outright betting favorite at +350 odds, followed by Rory McIlroy at +1000 odds. Russell Henley returns as the defending champion, rallying late to beat Collin Morikawa with a final score of -11-under-par.
My 2026 Cognizant Classic Picks & Predictions: PGA Longshots didn’t have a winner, although Nico Ecchavarria’s third PGA Tour win at PGA National cashed outright tickets as long as 70-1. Matti Schmid was my best pick at 100-1, as the German carded a T9 finish at -10-under-par.
Let’s keep hunting longshots in the outright winner betting market for the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more free bets and PGA Tour analysis throughout the 2026 PGA Tour season.
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational: PGA Longshots
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Akshay Bhatia (+7000)
We nearly cashed Akshay Bhatia at 60-1 during his run up the leaderboard at Pebble Beach. Bhatia’s lone appearance at Bay Hill last year led to a missed cut at +8.
I’m confident in Bhatia’s ability to contend in a loaded, condensed field during his second trip to Orlando. The 24-year-old has gone T3-T6-T16, with the latter two finishes coming in Signature Events at Pebble Beach and Riviera.
Bhatia ranks 24th in SG: Approach, 55th in SG: Putting, 4oth for greens in regulation hit, and 34th in putting average. His game is well-rounded, and there could be unique opportunities to sink birdies with his left-handed swing.
Bet on Akshay Bhatia to post his third PGA Tour win at 70-1 during his return to Bay Hill this week.
Nick Taylor (+8000)
Nick Taylor is flying under the radar at 80-1. The Canadian golfer has won five PGA Tour events, including each of the previous three seasons.
He’s only posted one top 20 finish in 2026, but no finish has been outside the top 30. Ranks 33rd in driving accuracy, 39th for greens in regulation, fifth in scrambling, and 21st for scoring average.
In eight trips to Bay Hill, Taylor’s best finish was T12 in 2024. Last year, he carded a T31 finish. Let’s invest in Taylor to bring his best performance of 2026 at Bay Hill and bet him to win outright at +8000 odds.
Ryo Hisatsune (+10000)
Ryo Hisatsune will make his debut at Bay Hill this week. The Japanese golfer has had a couple of impressive finishes in 2026, notably a T2 at Torrey Pines during the Farmers Insurance Open and a T8 at Pebble Beach.
Hisatsune ranks 21st in total strokes gained, including 21st SG: Off-the-Tee and 36th in SG: Approach. His driver is accurate, and he’s inside the top 25 for greens in regulation (73.4%) and proximity.
Putting has been Hisatsune’s primary weakness. He’s 91st in SG: Putting, while also 93rd in driving distance.
At 100-1, oddsmakers don’t have much confidence that Hisatsune will sort out his putting woes or have enough power off the tee to contend at Bay Hill. However, his tee-to-green game is too good to ignore at this price.
Let’s back Ryo Hisatsune based on his recent success and bet on him to win outright at +10000 during his Arnold Palmer Invitational debut.